Napoli vs Sporting CP Prediction: 12/5 KDB can contribute to high-scoring game

Napoli host Sporting in the the Champions League 2025/26 season, with a kick-off time of 20:00 on Wednesday night, live on TNT Sports 5.

Jamie Pacheco talks you through his Napoli vs Sporting CP predictions, team news and form ahead of this one at 6/5 and 12/5. Let’s finds out why Jamie likes those.

Team News

It must be a hard work reporting to Antonio Conte as a Napoli player but there’s no doubting his ability to get excellent results. The reigning Serie A champions are four from five in Serie A this season but have work to do in the Champions League after losing 2-0 at Manchester City in Week 1. No disgrace in that result as such but they’ll be keen to get their first win on the board and thinking ahead, will want to qualify to the next round directly rather than via the play-off round.

Kevin de Bruyne has made the excellent start you’d expect from a player of his calibre and is already having a huge impact on the team, also contributing with a couple of goals.

He’s not the only ex-Premier League man in action here. Rasmus Hojlund, who enjoyed so little success at Manchester United is on loan and has already scored once, while Scott McTominay’s permanent move, also from Manchester United, proved a big success as he was a vital player for them last year in winning the league title. Billy Gilmour is there too but doesn’t always start.

They lost 2-1 at AC Milan on Sunday night, their first dropped points of the Serie A campaign.

As for Sporting, they suffered a loss to Porto in the league that the fans won’t have been best pleased about but other than that mishap, it’s been a great start to the season for them. They secured six wins in the league from seven, to go with an excellent 4-1 win over Kairat Almaty in this competition.

At the weekend they beat Estoril 1-0 in a surprisingly tight game where a bigger winning margin was expected. Colombian forward Luis Suarez has made a big impact already with five goals and he recently scored four in a 6-3 win for Colombia over Venezuela.

Make no mistake, this is a very well-drilled team and isn’t an easy one to beat.

Napoli vs Sporting CP Odds

Napoli are 5/6, implied probability of 54.5%, with Sporting 10/3, which is 23.81%, while the draw is 11/4, or 26.7% if you prefer.

Somewhat surprisingly, these two have never played each other in an official match. Or maybe it’s not that surprising.  It’s only been in the last few years that Napoli have been a permanent fixture in European competitions, almost since the late 1980s and a certain Diego Maradona.

So, no heads-to-heads to go by but those prices look about right with Napoli obviously favourites but the odds-compilers showing Sporting plenty of respect; that’s why the hosts are 5/6, rather than say 4/7.

And if the prices are right, we don’t play. 

1pt Back Both teams to Score and over 2.5 goals @ 11/10

At 8/11 you can back both teams to score. I like that as an outcome because Sporting have been full of goals this this season. They have 27 in nine matches so far, which as we know is an average of three a game, and after drawing a blank in their opening match of the season, a 1-0 loss to Benfica in the Portuguese Super Cup, they’ve scored in every fixture since.

We certainly don’t have any concerns about Napoli getting one; they only failed to score at the Etihad. And they’ve been conceding some of their own, with the two they let in when beating Pisa 3-2 at home last week, raising a few eyebrows.

But I’ll take a bigger price that on there being an additional goal in the match to the minimum of one-a-piece. In other words, I do think both teams will score but I think there will be at least one more goal in the match, on top of that. So, I’ll take the 11/10 on the latter rather than the straight 8/11 on both teams scoring.

0.pts Kevin de Bruyne to score anytime @ 12/5

It’s a strange world that we live in where Scott McTominay (2/1) is a shorter price than Kevin de Bruyne (12/5) to score a goal.

I’d already said that McTominay had a stand-out season last time out, and he did. In addition to his all-action play in midfield, he also contributed 13 league goals to the cause and has already scored once this season.

But that’s still a somewhat short price, or at least it is compared to de Bruyne’s. The brilliant Belgian already has three for the season for Napoli, to go with three in two games for his country, so his shooting boots have been nice and polished since the summer break.

One thing I’ve noticed is that two of de Bruyne’s goals were from the penalty spot.

It’s an interesting one because he was always something of a reluctant penalty-taker at Man City all those years with the likes of Aguero, Toure, Haaland and plenty others always ahead of him in the pecking order to take them. But it seems like he’s got the gig here at Napoli and that’s a bonus. But this is KBD we’re talking about so there are quite a few other ways he can muster a goal. It’s a decent price.

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):

• Points Staked: 5
• Points Returned: 8.25
• Current P/L: +1.25 

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

Place a Match Result bet (Pre-Match) on the specified 2 Up Early Payout market in selected leagues, and if your team goes 2 goals ahead in the match, we’ll pay out your bet as a winner!

Opt in and build your own Bet Builder (3/1+) of 3+ legs on any Champions League game on Tuesday or Wednesday and get 100% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £10 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)

Click here for the latest Football Odds and Today's Football Fixtures