Napoli vs Hellas Verona Prediction: Hosts to avenge opening day humiliation

Serie A leaders Napoli will be gunning for a fifth straight victory when they host Hellas Verona at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Sunday (19:45, TNT Sports 1). Antonio Conte's side are three points clear at the summit and they have lost just twice at home.

Hellas Verona gave Napoli a wake up call on the opening day of the campaign, winning 3-0 in the reverse fixture. They also head into this clash having won their last two away trips against Bologna and Parma. Below you will find my Napoli vs Hellas Verona prediction, supported by the latest match odds and team news.

Napoli vs Hellas Verona Odds

As the league leaders who also have seven wins from nine on home soil, it's no surprise to see Napoli as the favourites for Sunday. They are marketed at 2/9 to take the three points.

Hellas Verona are 11/1, which has an implied probability of 8.3%, to complete the double over Conte's men. They bested Napoli on the opening day and head into this having won their last two away matches, so this price could be alluring.

The draw can be backed at 9/2, but Napoli haven't drawn a single game in the top flight this term and the visitors have only had one themselves.

Both teams to score has struck in seven of the last nine league meetings between these two clubs and is on offer at a tempting 6/5 for Sunday. Napoli forward Romelu Lukaku has two goals in his last four league appearances and he is 1/1 to strike anytime against Hellas Verona.

Football Odds

Team News

Napoli are closely monitoring wingers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Matteo Politano ahead of Sunday's game. If they are available they may be limited to roles on the bench, and Conte could opt for a similar XI that cruised to victory at Fiorentina last time out.

Kvaratskhelia may also have his minutes limited because rumours are swirling about a potential move to Paris Saint-Germain for the Georgian international.

David Neres and Leonardo Spinazzola could again support Lukaku in the final third, while Mathias Olivera is expected to shake off an issue with his calf and hold his spot in the team at left-back.

Conte is already making moves in the transfer window as it has been reported that AFC Bournemouth midfielder Philip Billing is set to join on loan for the rest of the season, and Napoli will have an option to make the move permanent.

The hosts are going to miss powerful centre-back Alessandro Buongiorno once again due to a vertebral injury, so Juan Jesus continues to fill in for him in the backline.

Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Scott McTominay and Stanislav Lobotka are expected to continue in the middle of the park, but Billy Gilmour will be pushing for a starting opportunity after being limited to small cameos recently.

Verona head to Naples without two key players due to suspension. Suat Serdar was sent off during the second half in the stalemate with Udinese, while Jackson Tchatchoua has picked up five yellow cards. The visitors are also missing Martin Frese, Juan Cruz and Abdou Harroui through injury.

Of all the players making their Serie A debut in 2024/25, Hellas Verona striker Casper Tengstedt has scored the most goals (six), and he is expected to link up with Amin Sarr in attack.

Napoli and under 2.5 goals @ 11/5 

Napoli have grown significantly on the pitch since the defeat at Hellas Verona back in August and they have collected 14 victories since to lift them to the top of the standings.

There is a lot of quality on display from Conte's side but it is very rare that they will blow their opponents away, particularly at home. Their biggest win so far has come on the road, a 4-0 triumph over Cagliari back in September.

They have posted a 3-0 victory at home against Bologna but that came in August. Napoli's last four wins inside this stadium in Serie A have all produced under 2.5 goals, so I think combining this market to a Napoli win could add some worth for punters.

Each of the last three wins here have been by a 1-0 scoreline. It's also worth noting that Hellas Verona are an improving outfit who have prevailed in their last two away games. They will make this a tough test for the hosts, who might still be hung up over the defeat against their opponents at the beginning of term.

Napoli's four wins on the spin in the league should give them enough confidence to win again, though, even if there aren't as many goals on offer as there were in Florence last time out.

Hellas Verona -10 booking points handicap @ 23/20

The visitors have picked up the most yellow cards in the league so far this season with 47 from 19 games. This means they are averaging 2.5 per match. In comparison, Napoli have collected just 23, and they top the Fair Play table - so their average is much lower at 1.2 per 90.

In Hellas Verona's last two away games, they have been brandished with eight yellow cards, with five coming against Bologna in their most recent trip. In Napoli's last two fixtures at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, they have picked up just two bookings.

Therefore, I think a -10 handicap on booking points for the visitors offers great value for Sunday's contest. If you are unfamiliar with booking points in betting, 10 points are issued for a yellow card and a red card is worth 25 points here at Betfred.

So by the end of the match you will be able to calculate the totals for each team. In this particular market, Napoli will head into the game with a hypothetical yellow card, which Hellas Verona must surpass over the course of the 90 minutes.

Seeing how bad their record is this year, I think this could be a smart selection.

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