Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction: 8/1 Scott the Supercoppa pick

Italian football’s annual trip abroad gets underway on Thursday when Serie A champions Napoli take on holders AC Milan in the first semi-final of the Supercoppa Italiana in Riyadh (22:00 local, 19:00 GMT, live on Premier Sports 1).

Antonio Conte’s side need to boost back after a fourth league defeat at the weekend, but the Rossoneri are in excellent form. My Napoli vs AC Milan predictions follow, complete with team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Napoli are still without Kevin De Bruyne, Andre-Frank Zambo-Anguissa (both hamstring) and Billy Gilmour (groin), while Mathias Olivera is now set to be out with a muscle problem.

The good news is that Romelu Lukaku could be in line for his first appearance since tear a thigh in pre-season, with the former Chelsea, Inter and Manchester United striker likely to be on the bench.

For Milan there is no Santi Gimenez, with the Mexican remaining sidelined by an ankle problem.

Matteo Gabbia suffered what appeared to be a serious knee injury against Sassuolo last weekend, but the centre-back has been cleared after surgery and while he’ll be out against Napoli he could return if the Rossoneri make the final.

Napoli vs AC Milan Predicted Lineups

• Napoli: Milinkovic-Savic; Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Neres, Lang; Hojlund
• Milan: Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Nkunku, Pulisic

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds

There’s little in this one according to the oddsmakers, with Betfred pricing Napoli at 7/4, which implies a 36.4% probability, and Milan at 13/8 (38.1%).

The draw in 90 minutes is a 2/1 shot, while both sides are available at 5/6 to win the tie by whatever means necessary.

Betfred also have a number of Price Boosts available, including Scott McTominay to score the first goal of the game. That’s now 8/1 from 15/2.

Napoli vs AC Milan Stats

• Milan won this season’s Serie A meeting, holding on to triumph 2-1 despite Pervis Estupinan’s second-half red card at San Siro
• Both sides have been involved in 9 games of over 2.5 goals this term, with both of Milan’s last 2 following that trend
• Scott McTominay has netted 7 goals from 24 Shots on Target in 27 games in all competitions for club and country in 2025/26

Today's Football Fixtures

Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/4

The Supercoppa is a chance for an extra trophy but also an opportunity to let loose a little. This isn’t the grind of the Serie A season, nor the intensity of the Champions League.

To that end, there should be a freedom about this game, and two sides who have dangerous attacks but also exploitable defensive lines should deliver an entertaining fixture.

Milan have been tight generally this term but have conceded four in their last two while scoring five.

Napoli, for their part, have gone two without a goal since beaten Juventus. But that surely suggests they are due.

So I’m backing the Over 2.5 Goals bet at 5/4 for these two to deliver another exciting match as they did at San Siro.

Football Odds

Scott McTominay to Score the First Goal @ 15/2 8/1 

Napoli may have been off it slightly as an attacking force of late, but McTominay is just the sort of player to kick them out of their funk.

The Scotland international so often gets something going with a spark of bravery in the final third, and I can well see him leading the way again here.

His slight change in position from the wider role he was employing earlier in the season to accommodate Kevin De Bruyne means he is largely back to being the Serie A MVP of 2024/25, and I like the value in this bet for him to open the scoring.

A player who averages more than a shot per game since arriving in Serie A in 2024 simply has to be in the frame for the opener.

Offers

Football - 2 Up Early Payout

Pre-Match bets on the 2 Up Early Payout market in selected games. Paid as a winner within 5 minutes if your team goes 2 goals ahead. Selected leagues only. 90 mins only. T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.