Monday Football Accumulator Tips: 7/1 fourfold

Serie A - Monday's Accumulator, paying around 7/1 at the advertised prices.

Happy Easter, everyone!

Leg 1 – Bologna vs Salernitana – Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11

Italy’s team of the season (behind Inter) Bologna are chasing an historical qualification to the Champions League and this is by far their most winnable game of the nine remaining. Thiago Motta’s side are second in the home table, only three points behind the Nerazzurri, and have achieved the same points (54) as they did at the end of last season.

Although they scored in stoppage time at Empoli (thanks to Giovanni Fabbian’s fifth goal of the season), they totally deserved the success against the Tuscan club, having had 20 shots and an xG (expected goals) value of 2.31.

The hosts have only lost one (1-0 to Inter) of their last nine games and at the ‘Renato Dall’Ara’ have failed to score just three times this season (against Napoli and both Milanese sides).

Top goalscorer Joshua Zirkzee (10 goals and three assists for the Dutchman) should return to the starting XI and lead the attack alongside Dan Ndoye (still searching for his first Serie A goal) and Riccardo Orsolini (five goals and one assist in the last seven games).

The Felsinei have won seven games at home by two goals or more and should have no problems beating bottom of the table Salernitana. During the international break the visitors have changed their fourth manager of the season hiring Stefano Colantuono (at his third spell in charge of the team from Campania) to try to end the campaign with dignity.

Salernitana would need more than a miracle to avoid relegation, in fact last season both Sampdoria (15 points) and Cremonese (16) did slightly better than the Granata after 29 matches but yet ended up going down to Serie B.

Eight of Bologna's last ten home games in Serie A have ended with under 2.5 goals, but Salernitana, Italy’s second worst defence with 59 goals conceded, have scored in five of their last seven away encounters.

Leg 2 - Cagliari vs Verona – Draw or Hellas Verona @ 4/6

Outside of the relegation zone and level on points Cagliari and Verona approach this grudge match after a series of positive results.

The Sardinians have lost just one (1-0 to Monza before the international break) of their previous five games and are always fired up in front of their home crowds. In fact Claudio Ranieri’s men have only been defeated in two of their previous 10 home games (against Lazio and Torino) and failed to score only three times.

At the ‘Unipol Domus’ Cagliari have netted 20 times (same as Napoli and only two goals short of Juventus), but have conceded at least once in all their five domestic wins. At home the hosts have only kept two clean sheets and just five games have produced less than three goals.

Cagliari seem unable to simply win 1-0 (they only beat Empoli, away, with this scoreline) and this might come back to bite them in the relegation battle.

Verona’s last two wins (against Sassuolo and Lecce) have been by just the odd goal as the Scaligeri have collected eight points in the last six games. After a difficult start, when they lost five matches on the bounce between October and November, Marco Baroni has been able to steady the ship.

The results and the performances have been encouraging despite a huge players’ turnover in January and the departure of some of the club’s best players like Ngonge, Terracciano, Doig and Hien. Recently Verona were worth a point against Juve and did not deserve to lose against both Inter and Napoli.

The visitors have only failed to score twice (against Monza and Bologna away) in the last 11 games and have only lost one of the last three games on the road.

Leg 3 – Lecce vs Roma – Roma win @ 4/6

The arrival of Daniele De Rossi as manager has totally transformed the Giallorossi. Since the former captain took the reign from Jose Mourinho (16 January) no other team in Serie A has scored more goals (23) and has had a better attempts/goals conversion rate (25%).

Roma have only dropped five points in the last nine games, and they’re second only to leaders Inter (25 points, thanks also their 4-2 success over the team from the capital) in this period.

Under Mourinho the visitors seemed too preoccupied to try to not concede, despite having an average defence, rather playing on the front foot.

De Rossi has quickly changed the team’s mentality and deployed a more attacking formation, by switching to a back-four and having Lukaku, Dybala, Pellegrini and El-Shaarawy on the pitch at the same time.

This new approach has paid off as Roma are only three points adrift from the fourth place. The Giallorossi have only kept two away clean sheets in all competitions (in the derby and against Frosinone where, in the first half, they risked to concede in more than one occasion), but, with no midweek games coming up, should be too strong for this Lecce side.

In Luca Gotti’s first game in charge as manager the Salentini achieved three vital points in Salerno before the international break but were a touch lucky. In fact, Norbert Gyomber’s own-goal gave Lecce the lead and goalkeeper Vladimiro Falcone showcased another man of the match performance.

It was the first win in the last six games for the home side and their first clean sheet since match day five.

This season Lecce haven’t conceded in just three occasions (twice against Salernitana and Genoa at home) and they’ve overachieved in terms of defensive numbers.

In fact their xGA (expected goals against) differential is the third highest (+8.03) behind Inter and Monza.

Equally so far Lecce have been the less clinical team in front of goal; based on xG (expected goals) they should have netted 34 times (eight more than what they actually did).

But ultimately if this game will be a goals fest it’s unlikely Roma will get beaten.

Leg 4 - Inter vs Empoli – Inter and Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/13

The Neroazzurri are only four wins away from their 20^th Scudetto and need to remain focused after their last two disappointing results such as the elimination from the Champions League and the 1-1 draw against Napoli.

Before the international break Simone Inzaghi’s team dropped points for the first time since 29 December  (1-1 draw away at Genoa) and ended their 10 match winning streak in Serie A. Probably Inter, who have conceded in three of the last four games, needed to recharge the batteries after a busy period.

The hosts have overshadowed Napoli’s achievements from last season (they have 76 points against the current champions’ 74 after 29 games) and could wrap up the title in April with wins against Udinese (away), Cagliari (at home) and in the derby.

Inter have won home 10 games to nil in all competitions and in front of their supporters they’ve beat comprehensively Lecce, Salernitana, Udinese, Frosinone, all teams that, like Empoli, fight to avoid relegation.

The hosts might be without goalkeeper Yann Sommer (due to ankle injury suffered with Switzerland) who has let in just 14 goals in 29 league outings, but the two extra days of rest will be extremely beneficial for a club that has sent 14 players around the world last week.

Inter have scored in all 29 of their league outings this season and have only been behind in the scoresheet twice (against Juventus and Roma) in Serie A.

Empoli have been beaten by a single goal in their last three matches and must show more courage than in their previous visit to San Siro, a couple of weeks ago, against AC Milan.

The side from Tuscany have improved under Davide Nicola but away from home they have not managed to score against Milan, Torino, Bologna that, alongside Inter, are Italy’s best domestic defences with only eight goals conceded.

Football Accumulator tips from Betfred Insights.