MK Dons vs Crawley Prediction: MK can secure home win

 | 10th May | 

3 mins read

I’m not sure any of us saw this coming. Crawley Town took a huge step towards League 1 as they battered MK Dons 3-0 in a pulsating first leg at the Broadfield Stadium. After the game was delayed by a day due to a waterlogged pitch, the Red Devils came out firing and have put themselves in a fantastic position to reach Wembley.

However, they still have work to do in the second leg. This game has also been rescheduled and will now take place on Saturday night, with kick-off at 19:45. Below you can find my MK Dons vs Crawley prediction for what should be another thrilling encounter between these two teams. 

MK Dons vs Crawley Betting Tips

  • MK Dons to win in 90 mins @ 21/20
  • Over 3.5 goals in 90 mins @ 6/5

Team News

Mike Williamson could ring the changes for this one as his side put in a dismal showing in the first leg. He also has to attack this game from the very off, which means Ellis Harrison could come in to lead the line alongside Max Dean. Key man Alex Gilbey will have to put in a better showing this time around, after he was taken off with ten minutes to go in West Sussex. 

Having to manage a big lead away from home can be difficult, as Peterborough United proved last season, but Scott Lindsey is likely to be brave. He could well name an unchanged XI given how well his side played in the home leg, although Ronan Darcy scored off the bench and is pushing for a start. 

Match Odds

MK Dons are priced at 21/20 to win this match, giving them a win probability of 48% according to the bookies. Crawley are available at 21/10 if you fancy them to back up their 3-0 lead with another victory, while a draw can be backed at 3/1. BTTS and over 2.5 goals are both priced at 1/2

MK Dons to win in 90 mins @ 21/20

Given the circumstances heading into this one, I think the value lies with backing MK Dons to win the game in 90 minutes. That doesn’t mean they will qualify, simply that they will win this second leg. This is going to be a different prospect to the first leg, and MK boast the third-strongest home record in League 2, having won 14 of their 23 home games in the regular season. 

Crawley’s away record is also strong, but the three-goal advantage they hold does change the feel of this tie. They can afford to lose by one or two goals and still qualify, so if they are one goal down with half an hour to go, they are unlikely to chase an equaliser like they would in a regular league game. They lost 2-0 here back in December, and I think the home side will bag another win in 90 minutes. 

MKDonstowinin90

Over 3.5 goals in 90 mins @ 6/5

More goals expected here. Crawley surprised me with how attacking they were in the first leg, and that may prove to be their most successful tactic in this second leg. I’m expecting another goalfest here, but this time with MK Dons showing their attacking prowess as well. Williamson’s side have scored 48 goals in 23 home matches this season, while Crawley have hit 37 goals on the road.

I think the pick of over 3.5 goals offers superb value, given the fact that MK need to come out and score three just to give themselves a chance of qualifying. If we also expect Crawley to find the net at some point, that means over 3.5 goals has a great chance of coming in. 

Over3.5goalsin90mins

Check out our other Football Betting Tips here. 

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