Middlesbrough vs Derby Prediction: Boro to hammer strugglers

Middlesbrough ended their dismal run of defeat in midweek as they beat Stoke City 3-1 at the Bet365 Stadium. That will have certainly lifted the weight off the shoulders of those in Boro red, as they also gave their fading play-off hopes a boost. If they can follow up that three points with another win when they host Derby on Saturday (15:00), they could be back in the mix.

Below you can find my Middlesbrough vs Derby predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

It’s a case of wait and see for both George Edmundson and Rav van den Berg for Boro, with head coach Michael Carrick not ruling either of them out.

“We’re still waiting to see on both. George jarred his ankle after landing awkwardly. We’ll see how he is. Rav is similar. It was knee for Rav the day before the game in training.

“He felt it a little bit and we’ll have to see how he is. They could possibly be available for the weekend. I’m not writing them off at this stage. We’ll have to wait and see because there’s still a bit of work to do to see where they’re at.”

There’s been progress for the likes of Ben Doak, Jonny Howson and Riley McGree but none of them have rejoined first-team training yet, and so they aren't involved this weekend. 

Derby boss John Eustace is still hunting for his first points in charge, but he’s had some good news in the form of former Boro man Matt Clarke. The defender came off last week but is in contention to play against the club he left in January, as his injury is not as bad as we initially thought.

"That's great news and we will wait and see. Corey (Blackett-Taylor) is still a few weeks away, but hopefully Kane Wilson will join back in with the group next week.” Nat Phillips could play here having rejoined training this week, and he could replace Clarke if he isn’t deemed fit. Dajaune Brown, Curtis Nelson and David Ozoh are all out for the season. 

Middlesbrough vs Derby Odds

Middlesbrough are the 4/6 favourites to win this Championship fixtures, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. Meanwhile, the away side can be backed at 9/2, but they’ve only won one away game all season, amassing just eight points on the road. A draw can be backed at 11/4 which would be more useful for the away side given their form. 

Over 2.5 goals is 10/11 having come in during 50% of Middlesbrough’s 34 Champiosnhip matches so far, while BTTS is the same price. In terms of goalscorers, Tommy Conway is the fave to score first at 4/1, as the 10-goal striker looks to put that horror miss at Stoke behind him. 

Middlesbrough to win with -1 handicap @ 9/5

I’m glad the monkey is off Middlesbrough’s back in terms of ending that run of defeats. I think they can now push on and try and get back in the play-off mix, and they should be able to dismantle a Derby side that is now in serious danger of going down. 

Football Odds

I like Eustace as a manager, but this feels like a massive job for him to take on. The quality just doesn’t appear to be there across the squad, and they’ve now lost 10 matches in a 12-game winless run across all competitions since late December. 

They’ve not scored since Eustace arrived, and they are just one point off the bottom of the table, so I can’t see them surviving unless something drastically changes. Middlesbrough have the likes of Morgan Whittaker, Finn Azaz and Conway at their disposal. They should be able to blow Derby away. 

Finn Azaz to score anytime @ 2/1 

The one thing Carrick has got wrong in recent weeks, during this poor run of form in my eyes is the way he has left Finn Azaz out of the team. Against Watford and Bristol City, he changed to go with a front two - partnering January arrival Kelechi Iheanacho with Conway in a 4-4-2. I think this compounded their problems, and it’s perhaps no surprise that Azaz’s return to the starting XI coincided with a return to winning ways. 

He played behind Conway at Stoke, and they both got on the scoresheet as Azaz recorded a rating of 9.1 on FotMob. That’s outstanding, as he not only provided a goal threat, but linked the midfield of Hayden Hackney and Aidan Morris together as well. Boro are a far better team when Azaz is playing, and he’s now up to nine goals for the Championship campaign. He can find the net here against a leaky Derby defence. 

Offers

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