Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur Prediction: Hosts to take Bulls by the horns

There's a repeat of September's Australia Cup Final taking place this weekend at AAMI Park, the same venue where Macarthur FC beat Melbourne Victory 1-0 to lift the title for the second time in three years. Patrick Kisnorbo and his charges will be looking for revenge on Sunday (05:00, TNT Sports 4), while the Bulls hunt a third AAMI Park win of the calendar year against MVC.

You can check out my Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur prediction for this Australian A-League Men's match below, where you can also find all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne Victory secured bragging brights in the Melbourne derby last Saturday, beating Melbourne City 3-1 at AAMI Park. Their options have only gotten stronger for the visit of Macarthur, as captain and centre-back Roderick Miranda returns from the suspension he earned for a red card in Victory's opening-day goalless draw at Central Coast Mariners.

Roderick is likely to replace Joshua Rawlins and partner Brendan Hamill in the heart of defence.

Otherwise, Kisnorbo is likely to stick with the starting XI that served him so well in the Melbourne derby, which would mean last season's top goalscorer Bruno Fornaroli staying on the bench, where he remained for the duration of last Saturday.

Football Odds

There are no changes to Macarthur's squad, with Bernardo and former Victory forward Chris Ikonomidis still injured.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see a couple of changes to Mile Stejovski's starting XI, however, after they threw away the lead to lose 2-1 at home to Newcastle Jets in round two.

Daniel De Silva, Harrison Sawyer and Walter Scott are among those who could come into contention this weekend.

Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Melbourne Victory are 4/7 to make it back-to-back A-League Men's victories, giving Kisnorbo's charges an implied win probability of 63.6%, while Macarthur are 18/5, or a 21.7% chance, to return to winning ways.

The draw is priced at 3/1, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Fornaroli (10/11) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by fellow Victory forward Nikos Vergos (23/20), who struck his first A-League goal last weekend. Valere Germain, who saw a stoppage-time penalty saved in Macarthur's defeat to the Jets, is considered the Bulls' most likely goalscorer at 15/8.

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals - Melbourne Victory or Draw & Under 2.5 @ 9/5

A similar selection involving Melbourne Victory failed miserably for me last week as I tipped a draw and under 2.5 total goals in the Melbourne derby. Victory proceeded to strike three times in the opening 25 minutes - there hadn't been over 2.5 goals in a game between the two in the previous five head-to-heads.

Nevertheless, I'm backing two or fewer goals again this weekend and adding the double chance result on Victory to boot.

Kisnorbo has made an unbeaten start to life in the A-League with Victory, holding reigning Premier's Plate and Grand Final champions Central Coast Mariners to a goalless draw in Gosford before embarrassing his old club, and MVC's city rivals, at AAMI Park last time out.

Victory also kept a clean sheet in Kisnorbo's first three games in charge as they reached the Australia Cup Final in September, conceding their only goal of the competition to winners Macarthur.

The Bulls also kept three clean sheets in the competition, one against MVC, and won their quarter-final, semi-final and final by a 1-0 scoreline.

Things have been more frantic in the A-League for them as they thrashed Perth Glory 6-1 on the opening weekend before losing 2-1 to Newcastle Jets last time out.

However, I think there will be more calm applied to Sunday's contest, with four of the last five meetings between Victory and Macarthur finishing with two or fewer goals, including both matches in 2024.

The Bulls have gotten the better of MVC twice this year but I think Kisnorbo's side will at least be able to take a point this weekend, with a 0-0 or 1-1 a real possibility. The double chance on Victory and under 2.5 total goals looks like a goer to me at 9/5.

Anytime Goalscorer - Marin Jakolis (MAC) @ 3/1

He couldn't do it again, could he?

Former Melbourne City man Marin Jakolis, who spent last season on loan in Melbourne from French side Angers, was the hero for Macarthur in September when his 58th-minute strike proved to be the all-important goal in their Australia Cup Final win over Victory.

The Croatian only scored twice in the A-League Men's for City in 2023/24 but has already bettered that tally in just two games for the Bulls, bagging a brace in their first-round thrashing of Perth Glory before opening the scoring in defeat to Newcastle Jets last week.

Throw in his strike against Victory and a brace away to the Jets in the Australia Cup in August, and Jakolis has six goals in his first seven matches for Macarthur.

It's a big ask for him to net a seventh in eight on Sunday, which would make it four games in a row with a goal, while my first tip, which suggests the Bulls won't score more than once, slightly flies in the face of this pick.

However, at 3/1, I think Jakolis is well worthy of consideration in the anytime goalscorer market as his confidence continues to soar.

Offers

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