Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Prediction: Nish to dish up another goal

One of, if not the standout fixtures of the Australian A-League men's weekend comes from AAMI Park on Saturday (08:35, TNT Sports 6) as Melbourne Victory host Adelaide United. Both sides are on 33 points heading into this fixture, although the sixth-place Reds, who are behind Victory only by virtue of an inferior goal difference, hold a game in hand on Arthur Diles' charges.

Below are my Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Clarismario Santo Rodrigues, who has four goals in 21 ALM appearances for Melbourne Victory this season, has been ruled out of Saturday's contest with an unspecified injury, while Daniel Graskoski has been omitted from Diles' extended squad.

Alexander Badolato and Jack Duncan are both back in, though, and we could see a couple of changes to the starting XI that lost 4-2 to Western Sydney Wanderers at CommBank Stadium before the March international break.

Football Odds

Kasey Bos was withdrawn at half-time against the Wanderers and could lose his starting spot to a man 15 years his senior, Adama Traore, who replaced the 20-year-old at the start of the second half.

Zinedine Machach has begun the last two games on the bench, scoring in the first of those against the Central Coast Mariners; the French playmaker could come in from the off this weekend with Daniel Arzani or Rene Piscopo dropping down to the bench.

There's also a decision to be made up top with Bruno Fornaroli starting the last two games ahead of off-season signing and four-goal marksman Nikos Vergos.

One man who should be certain of his place is five-goal top scorer Nishan Velupillay, who followed up back-to-back goals for his club side before the break with a goal apiece against Indonesia and China for Australia.

Panashe Madanha (hamstring) and Bailey O'Neil (individual training) remain unavailable for selection by Adelaide United head coach Carl Veart, who hasn't named Jordan Elsey in his extended squad, despite the 31-year-old scoring in his first start of the season against Auckland on March 1.

Experienced Spaniard Javi Lopez, who suffered an injury last month and hasn't featured in any of the Reds' last seven matchday squads, is on the long list for Saturday.

Dylan Pierias has made two substitute appearances since missing a couple of games, and he is in contention to start in Melbourne.

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Odds

Adelaide won the reverse fixture 3-2 in January but are winless in their last five games, three of which they have lost, and they were beaten on their last visit to AAMI Park against Victory, who beat United 1-0 in the Australia Cup semi-finals last September.

Saturday's hosts have won three of their last four matches on home soil and are 10/11 favourites this weekend, implying a 52.4% probability, while the visitors are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to triumph on their travels for the first time since January 11.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 2/5, and over 3.5 total goals at 1/1.

Fornaroli (11/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market ahead of Vergos (11/8), with Archie Goodwin (6/4) first up for the Reds.

Anytime Goalscorer - Nishan Velupillay (MVC) @ 8/5

Velupillay has taken some stick this season for a lack of potency, scoring just three times in his first 15 ALM appearances, and his Socceroos credentials were questioned.

He's hit back at the dissenters in terrific fashion this month, opening the scoring for Victory against the Mariners and Wanderers before scoring Australia's second in World Cup qualifier victories over Indonesia (5-1) and China (0-2).

That makes it four straight games with a goal for club and country, and at 8/5, I'm taking him all day long to push that up to five on Saturday.

The 23-year-old only has one career goal against Adelaide, all the way back in December 2021 when Victory won 2-1 at Coopers Stadium.

However, he's currently in the form of his career and should take huge confidence from a positive international camp that has helped to push both him and his country to the 2026 World Cup.

United, meanwhile, have shipped 40 goals this season, more than every team except bottom side Perth Glory (48), and have been breached 13 times across their last four games.

Last time out, the Reds were beaten 5-4 at home by Macarthur, who saw all of their front three hit the target, so the signs are positive for another Velupillay effort this weekend.

Corners Over/Under 11.5 - Over 11.5 @ 1/1

Newcastle Jets games this season average 12.1 corners, putting Rob Stanton's side top of the table in that regard, but second and third, respectively, are Adelaide (11.2) and Victory (11).

The Reds take, on average, 6.5 corners per game and concede 4.7, while Victory win six and concede five.

In January's reverse fixture at Coopers, 14 corners were awarded - six for United and eight for Diles' side - and in the Australia Cup semi-finals, 11 were taken (five by Victory, six by Veart's charges).

Over 11.5 at 1/1, therefore, appeals at EVS on Saturday.

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