Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Prediction: The Vuck could buck derby trend

 | April 05 | 

4 mins read

AAMI park melbourne scaled

The third and possibly final Melbourne Derby of the 2023/34 Australian A-League Men's campaign takes place between Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City at AAMI Park on Saturday (KO, 09:45). Fingers will be crossed for some excitement this time around, with the first two contests ending in drab goalless draws.

Read on for our Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City prediction and all the latest team news and match odds heading into this clash between the great rivals, which can be viewed via TNT Sports.

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Betting Tips

  • Both teams to score - No @ 11/8
  • Melbourne Victory to win @ 23/20

Team News

Melbourne Victory head coach Tony Popovic has added Stefan Nigro and Leigh Broxham to his extended squad for this weekend's clash, with two players set to be omitted on matchday.

Popovic could be tempted into naming an unchanged XI after Sunday's 2-1 win over Perth Glory, but the likes of Connor Chapman, Nishan Velupillay and Salim Khelifi will hope to earn recalls.

Melbourne City will be boosted by the return of Leo Natel after the Brazilian forward missed Tuesday's 2-1 defeat to Central Coast Mariners to be with his wife for the birth of his first child.

Meanwhile, young midfielder Zane Schreiber has been promoted to the extended squad but is expected to miss out on matchday.

The Australian A-League Men's all-time top scorer, Jamie Maclaren, looks set to begin a fifth-straight game on the bench as a result of 18-year-old Max Caputo's strong performances up front. Caputo assisted City's opener - scored by Tolgay Arslan - in Gosford earlier this week, and will surely be rewarded with a start in the Melbourne Derby.

Marco Tilio made his return from a four-game absence on Tuesday and could be in contention to line up alongside Caputo and Leo Natel in the City attack, with Marin Jakolis and Alessandro Lopane in danger of dropping to the bench.

Scott Galloway, Andrew Nabbout, Arion Sulemani and Ben Mazzeo remain sidelined through injury.

Match Odds

Victory are 23/20 - or a 46.5% chance - to snap the Melbourne Derby out of its stalemate streak, while City can be backed at 15/8, giving them an implied win probability of 34.8%.

A third successive draw is an appealing 12/5 and both teams to score can be found at 8/15.

Both teams to score - No @ 11/8

Surely there won't be a third-straight goalless draw in the Melbourne Derby? The 0-0 scoreline can be backed at 14/1 and is certainly tempting, but BTTS - No is available at 11/8 if you're not feeling quite so adventurous.

There's good reason to believe at least one of these sides will fail to get on the scoresheet again. Over half (11/23) of Melbourne City's league games this season have seen BTTS - No land; only Central Coast Mariners (13/23) have witnessed it more times.

In fact, four of City's last five matches have seen at least one side fail to find the back of the net. One of those contests saw them run out 7-0 winners against Western Sydney Wanderers, but in the other four games they have managed a combined total of two goals.

Melbourne Victory to win @ 23/20

If a team is going to emerge victorious on Saturday, you'd fancy it to be the Dark Blues, who recovered from back-to-back defeats to Central Coast Mariners and Brisbane Roar to embark on a three-game unbeaten run which has included wins over Adelaide United and Perth Glory.

Those seven points have lifted Victory into third, with a top-two finish still very much possible, particularly if leaders Wellington Phoenix take points off the second-placed Mariners, who are currently five points ahead of Popovic's team.

The Vuck have lost just three times in 23 league outings this term, with draws being the real killer to their Premiership dream.

But the goals have started to flow a lot more consistently in the last couple of months, with the Boys in Blue scoring at least twice in five of their last six games.

Given City's travails in front of goal, Victory should be confident of holding firm, and a little bit of magic from the competition's leading scorer, Bruno Fornaroli, who has 17 goals this season and four in his last three, could be enough to snatch three points.

That would be a major blow to Aurelio Vidmar's side, who are currently four points behind sixth-placed Western Sydney Wanderers with four games remaining of the regular campaign.

Defeat on Saturday could all-but end their finals dream.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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