Melbourne City vs Western United Prediction: Visitors can put stop to H2H rot

A clash between two Victorian teams takes place at AAMI Park in Melbourne on Tuesday (07:00, TNT Sports 3) as Melbourne City host Western United in the Australian A-League Men's. The visitors will be out for revenge after suffering a 1-0 defeat to Aurelio Vidmar's side, courtesy of a 49th-minute Andrew Nabbout strike, at the same venue in November.

Below is my Melbourne City vs Western United prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

A hamstring injury picked up by Andreas Kuen in Melbourne City's 2-0 win over Wellington Phoenix last Friday has further crowded the club's treatment room. The Austrian midfielder, who will be sidelined for six to eight weeks, joins Nabbout, Mathew Leckie, Jimmy Jeggo, Yonatan Cohen, Max Caputo, Alessandro Lopane, Marco Tilio and Jayden Necovski in the City injury bay.

Zane Schreiber replaced Kuen against the Nix and could start in place of him on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, veteran goalkeeper Jamie Young should retake his place on the bench against his former club after missing out last Friday for personal reasons.

Football Odds

Khoder Kaddour, James Donachie, Abel Walatee, Sebastian Pasquali and Charbel Shamoon all miss out for Western United through injury.

Jordan Lauton, who came off the bench to score a sensational bicycle kick winner in last Friday's 3-2 comeback victory over Perth Glory at HBF Park, is suspended after receiving a second yellow card in that game for taking his top off.

Hiroshi Ibusuki should return to the starting XI after a slight fitness concern restricted him to a 45-minute showing off the bench against the Glory; Ramy Najjarine made way for the Japanese striker at half-time last week and is likely to drop out of John Aloisi's lineup at AAMI Park.

Melbourne City vs Western United Odds

There has been a winner in the past eight head-to-heads between these sides with Melbourne City coming out on top in six of them; Tuesday's hosts are 23/20, or a 46.5% chance, to make it six in nine and four in a row following three successes in 2024. Western United haven't beaten their Victorian rivals since October 2023 and are 9/5 (35.7%) to land a long-awaited knockout blow on Tuesday.

The draw is priced at 13/5 and both teams to score at 1/2, while you can get 6/4 for BTTS - No which has landed in the last two meetings won 1-0 by Melbourne City; a victory by the same scoreline for Vidmar's side is 9/1.

Ibusuki (8/5) is favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, followed by 17-year-old City forward Medin Memeti (9/5) and Western United teammate Noah Botic (15/8).

Draw No Bet - Western United @ 6/5

Melbourne City have only lost twice all season, suffering a 3-1 defeat to Melbourne Victory in the Melbourne derby on October 26 and going down 2-0 at home to Western Sydney Wanderers on November 30, a game which has preceded a five-game unbeaten run.

However, three of those matches ended in a draw and one of their two wins came away at rock-bottom Brisbane Roar (1-4) who have taken just two points from their first 10 games; the other victory was, of course, last Friday against the Nix, who were missing a couple of key players themselves and showed a serious lack of attacking intent, mustering just a single effort at goal. Between those two wins, City drew with Auckland (2-2), Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners (both 1-1).

Western United, meanwhile, are also on a five-game unbeaten run, but after kicking off with a goalless draw against Macarthur, Aloisi's charges have won their last four, beating Sydney (3-4), Auckland (0-4) and Brisbane Roar (1-0) before last Friday's dramatic late triumph over the Glory. Their victory over ALM leaders Auckland stands as their most impressive as they completely dismantled the New Zealanders who haven't suffered defeat in any of their other nine contests.

Of course, the fact they went behind twice in Perth last Friday against a struggling side is a slight cause for concern, but they will also take great belief and confidence from how they staged their recovery to pick up all three points. Plus, top scorer Ibusuki, who only came on at the start of the second half, should be back in from the beginning on Tuesday.

A win against City has been a long time coming but their form, coupled with the injury crisis crippling their opponents, gives them a great chance of beating their Victorian rivals at AAMI Park where Tuesday's hosts have struggled this season, taking just four points from 12 available.

United are an attractive 9/5 to make it five wins in a row and that price is a tempting one, but it might be worth taking the reduced odds of 6/5 for them in the 'Draw No Bet' market given City have shown some resilience despite their injury issues and have only conceded two goals across their last three games.

Selecting this option means that, in the event of a draw, your stake will be returned, while you will take home the winnings if the visitors claim victory.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/4

Western United have been involved in a few high-scoring games recently with three of their last four seeing at least four strikes - their 1-0 victory over the Roar proving to be the outlier. However, Aloisi's side still feature in the top half of the 'under 2.5 goals' table with 45 per cent (five) of their 11 league games ending in two or fewer goals.

Melbourne City, meanwhile, are joint top of that table alongside Auckland with 60 per cent (six) of their 10 matches, including their last three, finishing with two or fewer strikes.

The last two meetings between City and United have also been low-scoring with the former winning 1-0 on both occasions and I expect the under 2.5 goals run to carry on into the new year.

Offers

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