Melbourne City vs Western United Prediction: Another card-heavy contest at AAMI Park

Melbourne City ran away with the first leg of their Australian A-League Men's play-off semi-final first leg against Western United last Friday, winning 3-0 thanks to a strike each from German Ferreyra, Yonatan Cohen and substitute Mathew Leckie. John Aloisi's side now have it all to do in Saturday's second leg at AAMI Park (10:35, TNT Sports 4) to reach next weekend's Grand Final.

Below are my Melbourne City vs Western United predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne City right-back Nathaniel Atkinson has overcome the calf issue that forced him to miss last week's first leg, but it remains to be seen whether he is restored to Aurelio Vidmar's starting XI, with Callum Talbot proving himself an able deputy for the Socceroo.

Young midfielder Emin Durakovic also comes into the extended squad, with no omissions from last time out.

Football Odds

Injured quintet Samuel Souprayen (calf), Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles), Andrew Nabbout, Jayden Necovski and James Nieuwenhuizen (all knee) remain sidelined.

Western United defender James Donachie was taken off injured with an adductor strain just 14 minutes into his side's Elimination Final victory over Adelaide United (3-2) on May 9 and subsequently missed last week's game against Melbourne City.

However, the 32-year-old is back in the squad for Saturday's second leg, meaning Western United head into the weekend without any injury issues.

Star striker Noah Botic started last week's first leg on the bench after feeling something in his quad against Adelaide, with the 23-year-old given just over 20 minutes as a second-half substitute.

Botic will surely begin Saturday's game, though, replacing Michael Ruhs to partner Hiroshi Ibusuki up top.

Melbourne City vs Western United Odds

Melbourne City have won nine of their 12 games at AAMI Park this calendar year, including last week's first-leg success against Western United, who were forced to play away from their home stadium of Ironbark Fields. Vidmar's side are 9/10 to triumph again on Saturday and record a sixth consecutive victory against their opponents, who are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to secure a first head-to-head win since October 2023.

The draw is priced at 11/4, while Western United to win the tie is available at 25/1 if you're fancying a remontada.

Betfred are offering a couple of price boosts for this fixture, with each team 2+ goals, 4+ cards & Max Caputo to Score boosted from 15/2 to 17/2, and Melbourne City to win, 3+ goals and Cohen to score boosted from 7/2 to 9/2.

Most Corners - Western United @ 13/10

Western United have won the corner count in two of their three games against Melbourne City this season. They were only awarded two corners compared to their opponents' three in the first meeting last November, but in January, they received seven, five more than City's two, and in last week's first leg, they edged it 3-2.

Aloisi's side have won the corner count in all three games played so far this month, and on Saturday, it's up to them to take the game to City, who would be quite content with a goalless draw that would see them sail into next weekend's Grand Final.

We should, therefore, see Western United rack up the shot and cross attempts, which create the conditions for more corners via deflections, goalkeeper saves and the like.

At 13/10, this selection looks good value given the game state.

Booking Points Over/Under +32.5 - Over 32.5 @ 1/1

Six yellow cards, amounting to 60 booking points with Betfred, were produced in last week's first leg. Ruhs, Rhys Bozinovski and Angus Thurgate were carded for Western United, while Zane Schreiber, Ferreyra and Steven Ugarkovic were cautioned for Melbourne City.

It was the second time this calendar year that a meeting between the two teams had produced 60 booking points, with six yellows also shown in City's 2-0 victory over United on January 7. At AAMI Park that day, Ugarkovic and Schreiber were carded again for Vidmar's side, with teammates Souprayen and Benjamin Dunbar joining them in the referee's notebook, while Bozinovski and Thurgate were also shown yellows.

The first head-to-head fell just short of the above selection as three cards, and 30 booking points, were awarded in City's 1-0 win at Ironbark Fields last November.

Of course, the danger in this pick is that Saturday's hosts hold a comfortable lead in the tie, and any early City goal would effectively kill off the contest, perhaps lowering the intensity for the rest of the game.

However, City were three to the good last week and three cards were produced in the final 10 minutes, just as there were at AAMI Park earlier this year when City were 2-0 up.

This may not be the Melbourne derby, but it's still a match-up between two clubs in close proximity, and we've seen competitive contests in the past, and with so much on the line this Saturday, we could well see the referee dip back into his pocket on a few occasions here.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

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