Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Kisnorbo may struggle to KO old side

The opening round of the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's season produced a cracker of a Sydney derby between Western Sydney Wanderers and Sydney FC, and we don't have to wait long for another local rivalry as Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory lock horns at AAMI Park on Saturday (09:35, TNT Sports 5).

Below you can find my Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of the fourth Melbourne derby of the calendar year.

Team News

Mathew Leckie missed Melbourne City's 1-0 win at Newcastle Jets last weekend but is back in the squad for Saturday's derby, while Medin Memeti and Ben Dunbar have been promoted to the long list, which will be cut by two before Saturday.

Midfielder James Jeggo is suspended, however, after being dismissed in the 70th minute at McDonald Jones Stadium. The 32-year-old could be replaced in the starting XI by 19-year-old Zane Schreiber, who came off the bench within a minute of Jeggo's red card against the Jets.

Max Caputo, Alessandro Lopane, Jayden Necovski, Harry Shillington and Emin Durakovic all remain injured for Aurelio Vidmar's side.

Football Odds

Former Melbourne City head coach Patrick Kisnorbo will be without an experienced player of his own this weekend as captain and centre-back Roderick Miranda serves a suspension for his red card in the club's opening-round goalless draw at the Central Coast Mariners.

Right-back Jason Geria, who recently earned a recall to the Australia national team, could move across to the centre of defence, with summer signing Josh Rawlins coming in at full-back.

Kisnorbo will benefit from the availability of Daniel Arzani, who was banned last week, and the former Manchester City man could slot back into the starting XI on Saturday at the expense of Reno Piscopo.

There is also a decision to be made over last season's top goalscorer Bruno Fornaroli, who missed a penalty in the first half in Gosford and was subbed off later in the contest for Greek striker Nikos Vergos, who struck three times in Melbourne Victory's run to the Australia Cup final, where they lost 1-0 to Macarthur at AAMI Park.

Meanwhile, Joshua Inserra and Luka Kolic have been promoted to the 20-man squad.

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Melbourne City are 8/5 to beat their local rivals for the first time this year, having failed in four previous attempts in 2024. Those odds give the 'hosts' an implied win probability of 38.5%, while Melbourne Victory are 7/5, or a 41.7% chance, to claim all three points in a stadium they also call home.

Three of the four head-to-heads this year have finished in a stalemate - Victory triumphed in one after a penalty shoot-out - and you can get 23/10 for another draw this weekend.

Both teams to score, meanwhile, is 4/7, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

Fornaroli (13/10) leads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by teammate Vergos (7/4) and City's Andrew Nabbout (21/10).

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 11/10

Victory kicked off their A-League Men's campaign with a goalless draw and there was only one goal scored in City's opening-round game as Marco Tilio's second-minute strike proved to be the difference between them and Newcastle Jets.

Meanwhile, three of the four meetings between Victory and City this year have ended with under 2.5 total goals, the most recent being a 1-1 draw in the play-offs in May when Vidmar's side thought they had secured a win through Samuel Souprayen's first-half effort, before Nishan Velupillay scored in the 88th minute to send the tie to extra-time and penalties.

The first two head-to-heads this year finished goalless at AAMI Park as both defences held firm, while Victory's 2-1 triumph in April was only achieved through an 86th-minute winner from Damien Da Silva.

There's been very little to separate the sides in 2024 and caution has been the name of the game. With former Leeds United defender Kisnorbo in charge, I don't see that changing here and backing three or fewer goals might be the way to go again in this weekend's Melbourne derby.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Draw & Under 2.5 @ 18/5

I've already discussed my reasoning for backing under 2.5 total goals, and we can get the odds up to an enticing 18/5 by doubling that selection up with a draw.

This bet has landed in three of the four matches between the Melbourne clubs this year, and in eight of the last nine stalemates between them, the only exception being a 2-2 draw in December 2021.

The A-League Men's season only started last weekend so there's not much to go on here, although Victory did make it to the Australia Cup final last month, where they were beaten by Macarthur. Kisnorbo's side thrashed lower-league outfits NWS Spirit and Moreton City Excelsior 4-0 in the early rounds but only edged past Adelaide United 1-0 in the semi-finals, meaning their last three games have ended with under 2.5 goals.

City experienced an eventful cup tie at Perth Glory in August, drawing 4-4 at HBF Park before losing on penalties to exit the competition in the round of 16.

However, there were much fewer fireworks last weekend as Tilio scored the only goal of the game in Newcastle, and including the play-off against Victory in May, their last three A-League matches have finished with two goals or fewer.

I'm predicting another close contest in the Melbourne derby this weekend, but I can't decide between backing another 0-0 or 1-1, so I'll hedge my bets and go for a draw and under 2.5 goals.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.