Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: ALM Grand Final could go the distance

The first-ever all-Melbourne Australian A-League Men's Grand Final takes place on Saturday (10:40, TNT Sports 2), as local rivals Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory clash at AAMI Park. City beat Western United 4-1 on aggregate in the semi-finals to set up this showdown, while Victory overcame Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 in an Elimination Final before overturning a deficit in the final four, triumphing 2-1 against Premiers' Plate winners Auckland after two legs.

Below are my Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

There are no major changes to Melbourne City's squad from their semi-final second-leg victory over Western United last weekend, with Samuel Souprayen (calf), Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles), Andrew Nabbout, Jayden Necovski and James Nieuwenhuizen (all knee) still out injured for Aurelio Vidmar's side.

Football Odds

Teenage midfielder Lawrence Wong is back in the extended squad after missing out last time with a wrist injury, and he's joined by 19-year-old defender Harry Shillington, who has earned a promotion to the first team.

Melbourne Victory are boosted by the return of first-choice left-back Kasey Bos, who missed last Saturday's trip to Auckland with a foot injury. The 21-year-old should come back into the starting XI for Brazilian winger Clarismario, who deputised in an unfamiliar position against the Black Knights.

Socceroos winger Nishan Velupillay, who has taken off at half-time last weekend with an ankle issue, has been included in Arthur Diles' extended squad, though a decision is still to be made on whether he is fit for selection in the Grand Final.

“We’re not sure yet. It’s still early,” said Diles.

“He’s walking better, but it’s one thing to walk and another thing to be up for a final.

“In terms of general walking, yeah, he’s better, significant improvement in that regard. But yeah, it’s still way too early to have a clear indication.”

Fabian Monge and Adama Traore are both in the reckoning for Saturday's squad, but experienced centre-back Brendan Hamill (knee) and goalkeeper Mitch Langerak (foot) are sidelined.

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Melbourne City finished the regular season as runners-up to Auckland, five points ahead of their local rivals, and Vidmar's side are 11/10 favourites to win Saturday's Grand Final in regulation time, implying a 47.6% chance of success. Victory, meanwhile, are 21/10, or a 32.2% chance, to triumph without the need for extra time.

The draw, which would send the tie to another 30 minutes, and potentially, a penalty shootout, is priced at 9/4. City are 8/13 to win the tie by any means, with Victory 21/10 to do so themselves.

Betfred are offering a couple of price boosts for this Grand Final. Max Caputo 1+ Shots on Target, Yonatan Cohen 1+ Shots on Target, Bruno Fornaroli 1+ Shots on Target & Daniel Arzani 1+ Shots on Target has been boosted from 7/2 to 3/1, and City Over 4.5 Shots on Target, Victory Over 4.5 Shots on Target, City Over 3.5 Corners & Victory Over 3.5 Corners from 9/2 to 11/2.

Match Result - Draw @ 9/4

City ended the season slightly stronger than Victory, winning six of their last nine ALM games before the play-offs, where they outclassed Western United. They beat John Aloisi's side 3-0 in the first leg, pretty much killing the tie there and then, before playing out a 1-1 draw in the second leg.

Vidmar's side haven't tasted defeat since March 12 (0-1 v Newcastle Jets), and that remains their only defeat at AAMI Park since suffering a 2-0 reverse to the Wanderers on November 30.

Victory, meanwhile, closed out the regular campaign with four wins in their last nine before having to get past the Wanderers in an Elimination Final to reach the play-off semi-finals, where they overcame a 1-0 first-leg defeat to Auckland to win 2-1 on aggregate.

City start this final as favourites, but Victory will be buoyed by their recent record in Melbourne derbies. Victory haven't lost against City since December 2022, winning three of the eight matches played after that date. Five have ended in a stalemate after regulation time, with Victory emerging triumphant on penalties after a semi-final draw last May.

Victory won the first Melbourne derby of the season 3-1 in October, but that was under previous head coach Patrick Kisnorbo, who vacated his post just days before a 1-1 draw between the two teams on December 21. Diles stepped up to take the reins for that game, and he was subsequently appointed as Kisnorbo's permanent successor, and oversaw another Melbourne derby stalemate on February 22 (2-2).

I can see another draw after 90 minutes on Saturday, with this tie potentially headed for penalties.

Player to Receive a Card - Andreas Kuen (MCI) @ 18/5

City midfielder Andreas Kuen has only been booked twice in 20 appearances (19 starts) since making the move to Australia last year.

However, both cards, of the yellow variety, have been issued against him in Melbourne derbies.

The 30-year-old was only a second-half substitute in the first Melbourne derby of the campaign, and managed to stay out of any trouble in his 30 minutes or so on the pitch.

He began the 1-1 draw in December, though, committing two fouls, and the first of those, on Arzani, saw the Austrian go into the referee's notebook.

Kuen wasn't cautioned for his only foul of the game in the February 2-2 draw, but he was carded in the second half for remonstrating with the referee.

The former Atromitos man is averaging 1.1 fouls per game in this season's ALM, and with so much on the line, he could chop down a Victory player or two on Saturday. Even if he doesn't go into the book for a foul, tensions may well spill over again, and another yellow for dissent is possible.

At 18/5, Kuen looks good value to receive a card for a third consecutive Melbourne derby.

Offers

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