Man City vs Wolves Prediction: Minimum of fuss expected as City keep up title charge

 | 2nd May | 

4 mins read

Man City vs Wolves

Manchester City ticked off another box in their pursuit of a fourth consecutive Premier League title on Sunday with a 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest, and there are now just four games remaining for them as they look to make history in the competition.

The first of those four matches sees them host Wolverhampton Wanderers at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday (17:30, Sky Sports Main Event), and you can build up to the action by checking out my Man City vs Wolves prediction below.

Man City vs Wolves Betting Tips

  • Man City to win & under 3.5 goals @ 5/4
  • Under 37.5 booking points @ 1/1 

Team News

Erling Haaland missed wins over Chelsea and Brighton last month due to injury and was restricted to a substitute appearance at Forest, but the Norwegian should be fit to return to the starting XI this weekend.

There could be more changes to the line-up with Ruben Dias and Phil Foden primed to return from their absences in the East Midlands, while Ederson was forced off at half-time at the City Ground and may be replaced by Stefan Ortega.

Craig Dawson and Leon Chiwone are ruled out for the visitors, who are also unlikely to be able to call on the services of star winger Pedro Neto, as he continues his recovery from the hamstring injury that has kept him out of action since March 9.

There are also doubts over the availability of Santiago Bueno, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Rayan Ait-Nouri.

Match Odds

In a shock to absolutely no one, City are huge favourites to claim victory on Saturday, with odds of 1/14 giving them an implied win probability of 93.3%. If you fancy Wolves to achieve the unthinkable and hand Arsenal the ascendancy in the Premier League title race, you can back an away win at 16/1 (5.9%).

The draw is available at 8/1 and both teams to score at 5/4.

Man City to win & under 3.5 goals @ 5/4

Since a goalless draw with Arsenal on March 31, Man City have embarked on a five-game winning run in the Premier League, keeping a clean sheet in their two most recent matches, a 4-0 victory at Brighton & Hove Albion and a 2-0 win at Forest.

That triumph at the City Ground wasn't easy for Pep Guardiola's side, who had to try and contain the pace and trickery of the likes of Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi.

City got the job done, though, and I expect more of the same on Saturday, but I don't envisage them hitting Wolves for four or five, as they have done to others recently.

Gary O'Neil's side are rarely beaten by a great margin, and 11 of their last 12 matches in the competition have seen three goals or fewer.

Finding the net could prove difficult at a venue where City have conceded just 14 times in 17 league games this term, but can they hold firm and avoid a drubbing? I think so, and considering the gulf between the squads, I don't think a defeat by one, two, or three goals is particularly shameful at this time of the season when City have so much to play for, and Wolves very little.

Man City to beat Wolves & under 3.5 goals at 5-4

Under 37.5 booking points @ 1/1

Only Chelsea (97) have picked up more yellow cards than Wolves (92) in the Premier League this season, and O'Neil's side have also been given three red cards.

However, as previously alluded to, there is little on the line for the visitors this weekend, and thus their competitive edge may be reduced slightly.

Unsurprisingly, City sit bottom of the yellow card charts with just 49 to their name in 34 league outings. Guardiola's charges tend to dominate the ball, and if you're in possession of the ball in the opponent's half the majority of the time, your chances of conceding free-kicks and picking up yellow cards are much smaller.

This selection was a winner in the corresponding fixture between these sides last season, with all three yellow cards - accumulating 30 booking points - awarded in the first half with the score at 0-0. Haaland then scored the opener in the 40th minute before netting two more in the second half.

If I also look back to last season, when City were challenging Arsenal for the title, the booking points awarded in their final four games before dead rubbers against Brighton and Brentford, read: 10 (v West Ham), 30 (v Leeds United), 10 (v Everton), and 20 (v Chelsea). City weren't handed any cards in those matches, with all the booking points awarded to the opposition.

City's last two games, meanwhile, have produced zero booking points (v Forest) and 10 (v Brighton).

Under 37.5 booking points in Man City vs Wolves at 1-1

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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