Man City vs Real Madrid Prediction: Long-range shots the play for City

 | 16th April | 

7 mins read

man city vs real madrid prediction betting tips odds champions league 17 april 2024

What a game we saw last week in Madrid and two of the biggest and best clubs in Europe get right back to it this Wednesday night for the second-leg of their Champions League semi-final.

Our La Liga Mark Sochon got the assignment for this one as he previews the match and gives us two odds-against Best Bets as part of his Man City vs Real Mardid predictions for us right here on Betfred Insights...

Man City vs Real Madrid Betting Tips

  • Any Man City player to score from outside of the penalty area @ 2/1
  • BTTS & each team over 19.5 booking points @ 5/4

Following a six-goal thriller at the Bernabeu, Manchester City and Real Madrid do it all again on Wednesday night, with a place in the Champions League semi-finals at stake for the winners.

The first leg ebbed and flowed, with City making a flying start as Bernardo Silva’s free-kick caught out Andriy Lunin in just the second minute. Just 12 minutes later though, Real Madrid were ahead and briefly looked like they could ride the early momentum and take control of the tie.

In a meeting of the last two European champions, it was the English side who regrouped and came out stronger after the break, with Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol firing in stunning efforts from outside the box to silence the Bernabeu and put City firmly in the box seat.

There was still time for one last twist though, with Vinícius Júnior picking out Fede Valverde to hammer home Real Madrid’s best strike in a game of great goals that ended 3-3.

That leaves everything to play for at the Etihad Stadium, although unquestionably Manchester City are the favourites to make it through to a fourth straight Champions League semi-final.

Pep Guardiola’s team head into the second leg after what can only be described as the perfect weekend for them in the Premier League. Their 5-1 demolition of Luton Town was not a huge surprise, but they would certainly not have expected to end the weekend two points clear at the top after their two title rivals both slumped to surprise home defeats on Sunday.

The City boss was able to rest the likes of Rodri, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva against Luton and in many respects it was the ideal fixture to have in between the two legs of this huge Champions League tie. Manchester City are now unbeaten in 27 matches in all competitions, with the odds of them winning back-to-back trebles having tumbled over the past seven days.

Wednesday’s showdown with Real Madrid may even be the biggest obstacle that City now have to overcome in pursuit of that goal. The leaders of La Liga have gone 37 in all competitions without losing inside 90 minutes and haven’t lost a match outside of Madrid this season, with their only defeats this term coming across town at the home of rivals Atlético.

They’ve not lost a European game since the second leg of their semi-final at the Etihad last season. That was one of the darkest Champions League nights in the Spanish club’s recent history and nobody connected with Real Madrid has forgotten the 4-0 drubbing that was dished out by the soon to be European champions.

It does feel like Carlo Ancelotti learned a few lessons on that trip to Manchester though. Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić both started that game in a 4-3-3 system that saw Real Madrid completely overrun by a rampant City. Kroos and Modric have not started the same European game since and we’ll almost certainly see Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga in a more physical four-man midfield with Kroos and Fede Valverde on Wednesday.

Ancelotti’s team come into this match after a scrappy 1-0 win against Mallorca in La Liga with Aurelien Tchouameni’s deflected effort sealing three points for a much changed eleven.

Team News:

Manchester City should be in a much stronger position for the second leg in terms of player availability. An unwell Kevin De Bruyne watched on from the bench in Madrid having fallen sick in the hours prior to the game, but he’d recovered sufficiently to start against Luton on Saturday and should be fine for this one.

Ederson was also back in the starting eleven at the weekend and is likely to get the nod ahead of Stefan Ortega in goal. City fans would also have been encouraged to see both Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake in the matchday squad against the Hatters, while John Stones is expected to be fit despite missing out at the weekend with a minor niggle.

As for Real Madrid, unless Ancelotti has any surprises in store, it’ll be just the one change from the first leg. Aurelien Tchouameni, who has been used in central defence this season, is suspended following a booking last week which should see Nacho come in to partner Antonio Rüdiger.

It now looks highly unlikely that Eder Militao will be ready to feature prominently in this game, after the Brazilian again only featured in the dying minutes against Mallorca as he continues his comeback from an ACL injury.

Man City vs Real Madrid Odds:

Manchester City start as the clear 8/13 favourites to win the second leg in regular time, with the Draw priced at 16/5 and Real Madrid on offer at 4/1.

You can back the goals to flow again with Both Teams to Score priced at 8/13 while Both Teams to Score two or more goals is available at 7/2. A repeat of last week’s 3-3 Draw can be backed at 40/1 while you can back the first goal to come in the opening ten minutes again at 3/1.

If you see the defending champions making home advantage count, you can back Manchester City and Both Teams to Score at 15/8, a winning bet in each of their last three league games. You can also get odds of 13/8 for Manchester City -1.0 in the Handicap market.

Erling Haaland leads the way in the goalscorer markets, with the Norwegian priced at 9/4 to score first and 9/10 to score anytime. In-form Phil Foden, who scored a cracker in Madrid, is priced at 13/8 to score anytime.

As for Real Madrid, you can back Jude Bellingham to score first at 8/1 or anytime at 12/5. Vinícius Júnior is on offer at 9/4 to score anytime, while Rodrygo, so often the Spanish side’s hero in this competition, is 16/5 to score at some point in the game.

Bet 1 - Any Man City player to score from outside of the penalty area @ 2/1

In many respects, the second leg feels much more predictable than the first in terms of how the pattern of the game is likely to pan out. With home advantage, Manchester City should dominate the possession and territory while Los Blancos will almost certainly look to play on the break with Vinícius Júnior likely to be their main outlet.

City appeared to have a deliberate strategy of shooting from range last week and we could see something similar here as they look to test Real Madrid’s back-up keeper Andriy Lunin. The Ukrainian has had a good season filling in for the injured Thibaut Courtois, but was at fault for the first goal in the first leg and has limited experience of big Champions League nights like this.

In fact, all three of the Premier League team’s goals came from outside the box in Madrid and with the kind of quality they have in their ranks, I’m backing Any Man City player to score from outside of the penalty area at 2/1.

Bet 2 - BTTS & each team over 19.5 booking points @ 5/4

While Manchester City are worthy of their status as favourites, Real Madrid are very unlikely to fold in the way they did on this ground last year. They’ve been much more consistent this season and the switch to a more youthful and more physical midfield will give them a better chance of competing in the centre of the pitch.

They’ll want to impose themselves on the game as quickly as possible and with the stakes so high, this one may get niggly and the card count could quickly rise.

In terms of goals, we may not get quite as many as in the first leg. However, Erling Haaland up against an ageing Nacho is a total mismatch which City will look to exploit, while Real Madrid will back themselves to cause problems on the break with Vinicius, Bellingham and Rodrygo.

As a result, I’m backing Both Teams to Score and Each Team over 19.5 Booking Points at 5/4.

Mark Sochon primarily covers La Liga for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his and the rest of our Football Betting Tips from the team on our main Football page.

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