Man City vs Chelsea Prediction: Second half special from home side?

Manchester City are looking to extend their winning run to twelve matches when they host Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League (17:30). It’s a crucial game for the champions, given they are in a tussle with both Liverpool and Arsenal this season, and will have to be on top form if they are to win their fourth consecutive title.

Team News

Manchester City will be without Jack Grealish for this one after he came off injured against Copenhagen with a serious looking injury. Meanwhile Mateo Kovacic has also missed training, although the rest of the squad are fit to play. 

For Chelsea, the long-term absentees of Wesley Fofana, Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Robert Sanchez and Marc Cucurella are all still out. Benoit Badiashille joins that list with his latest injury while Thiago Silva’s groin issue he picked up on Monday night will be assessed. 

Match Odds

Manchester City are priced at 1/3 to win this game on home soil, while Chelsea are rank outsiders at 15/2. A draw can be backed at 9/2, BTTS is 8/11 and over 2.5 goals is 4/9. 

Erling Haaland to score anytime @ 4/6

The short price on Manchester City to win the game has made this market a difficult one to navigate in my eyes. I believe City will win this game, but I don’t think they will blow Chelsea away as many might expect, given the upturn in form from Mauricio Pochettino’s men. The Blues have won their last two away games 3-1, but obviously a visit to the Etihad presents a whole different challenge. 

What I am comfortable doing is backing Erling Haaland to get on the scoresheet, even at the short price of 4/6. Haaland scored twice against Everton in his last Premier League outing and with Chelsea’s defensive injuries, he should be able to take advantage of a hampered back line. If Thiago Silva starts, he could exploit the Brazilian’s lack of pace and have a profitable afternoon. 

HT/FT - Draw/Man City @ 16/5

A slightly different pick from me here, but one I am happy to select. I rarely venture into the HT/FT market but City’s recent form has piqued my interest. In their last few Premier League outings they’ve started relatively slowly. Everton held them at 0-0 when the half-time whistle blew, while against Brentford a late Phil Foden equaliser made it 1-1 after 45 minutes. They beat Burnley at home comfortable, but in the two matches before that, their first-half performances were also far from dominant. 

It was 0-0 in their FA Cup win at Tottenham Hotspur at the break, while they 2-1 down at Newcastle United before coming from behind to secure all three points. From what these stats suggest, City are clearly a dominant side, but they don’t tend to put teams to the sword until the second half. With their possession-based style, perhaps it is a case of wearing teams down to find an opening later on, but either way, this form produces a 16/5 price I’m very keen on. 

With Chelsea’s improved form they should be able to keep City at bay for 45 minutes, before Pep Guardiola’s men make their superiority count.

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