Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Sawyer to take the Bulls by the horns

Macarthur's pursuit of the Australian A-League Men's play-offs took a hit last Sunday as they drew 2-2 at Central Coast Mariners, a result which leaves them four points adrift of sixth-placed Sydney FC with just two rounds of fixtures remaining. The previous day, Melbourne Victory lost 2-0 at home to Auckland FC, and Arthur Diles' side are now five points behind Melbourne City (second) and just two ahead of Adelaide United (seventh). 

Below are my Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Friday's 10:35 kick-off at Campbelltown Stadium.

Team News

Bernardo Oliviera (unspecified) remains sidelined for Macarthur, but otherwise, the Bulls are at full strength.

Friday's hosts are unbeaten in their last four games, but they were trailing 2-1 at half-time away to Central Coast Mariners last Saturday and were reliant upon the second-half arrival of Harrison Sawyer to level the scores. The towering striker scored within four minutes of his introduction and has now scored in his last three appearances, previously bagging a brace off the bench against Newcastle Jets and netting as a substitute against Brisbane Roar.

Given that Christopher Ikonomidis has scored just once in 11 ALM outings this season, and not since Macarthur's 5-4 win at Adelaide United on March 14, Sawyer looks a good bet to lead the line on Friday.

Football Odds

The rest of Mile Sterjovski's side could remain the same, although Lachlan Rose, Peter Makrillos, Daniel De Silva and Dean Bosnjak, all of whom featured against the Mariners last time out, are also vying for promotions.

Melbourne Victory have been dealt a blow this week with the news that goalkeeper Mitch Langerak (unspecified) is ruled out due to injury. Jack Duncan, who made 13 ALM appearances before being usurped following the mid-season arrival of Langerak, will deputise for the eight-time Socceroo.

Daniel Graskoski has been promoted to Victory's extended squad as goalkeeping cover, and he is joined by Clerismario Santos Rodrigues and Ryan Teague, both of whom are available again after recovering from injury.

Joshua Inserra and Jing Reec are potential starters after coming on in last weekend's 2-0 defeat to Auckland.

Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Macarthur have won two and drawn two of their last four games, but neither of those victories came at Campbelltown Stadium. The Bulls are winless at home since January 25 and haven't beaten Melbourne Victory there since May 2021.

Friday's hosts are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to triumph this time around, while the visitors, who won the reverse fixture 2-1 at AAMI Park in November, are 21/20 to claim all three points, implying a probability of 48.8%.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 2/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

MVC's Bruno Fornaroli (5/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by teammate Nikos Vergos (13/10). Nine-goal Macarthur marksman Marin Jakolis, who spent last season on loan at Melbourne City, is joint-favourite in the market for the hosts, alongside Sawyer (both 13/8).

Home Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 @ 1/1

Only four clubs have scored more ALM goals this season than Macarthur (48), who are averaging two goals per game. The Bulls have been in rampant form in front of goal since mid-March, netting 15 times across their last four matches.

Sterjovski's side hit five past Adelaide United (4-5) and Brisbane Roar (1-5) in high-scoring victories, and played out score draws with Newcastle Jets (3-3) and Central Coast Mariners (2-2).

Melbourne Victory, meanwhile, have the third-best defensive record in the league, but they've conceded at least two goals in their last four games, shipping 11 since mid-March.

Diles' side lost 4-2 at Western Sydney Wanderers on March 15, beat Adelaide United 5-3 two weeks later, and edged past Wellington Phoenix 3-2 on April 12 before losing 2-0 to Auckland last time out.

Given the above, over 1.5 Macarthur goals on Friday looks like a solid bet at EVS, especially given the importance of the match to both.

Anytime Goalscorer - Harrison Sawyer (MAC) @ 13/8

Sawyer didn't score his first Macarthur ALM goal until the 12th attempt, but the floodgates have well and truly opened now for the 28-year-old.

The Bulls striker bagged a brace off the bench against Newcastle Jets and followed that effort up with a strike against Brisbane Roar and another at Central Coast Mariners last time out.

He's now in the reckoning for a first start since March 1, but even if he doesn't get the nod from the beginning on Friday, he's proven that he only needs a few minutes to get on the scoresheet.

Sawyer came on at the start of the second half against the Mariners and scored with his first shot in the 49th minute, and he went on to try his luck a further three times, forcing the goalkeeper into two saves. All four of his shots were with his head, and nine of his last 14 efforts at goal have been directed with that area of his body, so it's clear where he will look to find joy on Friday.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.