Macarthur vs Melbourne City Prediction: Dangerous Drew to break down solid City backline

Melbourne City's three-game winning run in 2025 was brought to an emphatic end last weekend as they suffered a 3-0 defeat to Auckland in New Zealand, losing their Australian A-League Men's leaders tag in the process. Aurelio Vidmar's side will look to get back on track this Saturday (08:35, TNT Sports 2) as they take a trip up to Campbelltown Stadium in South Western Sydney to take on fifth-placed Macarthur who can overtake them in third with a win at home.

Read on for my Macarthur vs Melbourne City prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Ariath Piol was left out of Macarthur's last two squads and the 20-year-old's exit from the club was confirmed on Thursday as MLS side Real Salt Lake confirmed his signing on a three-year contract through 2027 with an option for 2028.

Luckily for the Bulls, experienced forward Christopher Ikonomidis, who signed as a free agent in the off-season following his departure from Melbourne Victory, made his return from a lengthy injury lay-off in Monday's 2-1 defeat to Wellington Phoenix, and the 17-time Socceroo will be chasing more minutes on Saturday.

Midfielder Liam Rose lasted just 10 minutes against the Nix, though, and has been ruled out of this weekend's clash with Melbourne City. Daniel De Silva replaced the 27-year-old at Campbelltown Stadium earlier in the week and is likely to take his starting spot on Saturday.

Meanwhile, 31-year-old Belgian defender Dino Arslanagic, who made nine ALM appearances for Macarthur after leaving Saudi Arabian club Al-Riyadh last year, departed the club earlier this week after the mutually agreed termination of his contract on compassionate grounds.

The parting of ways came hot on the heels of the 31-year-old pleading guilty to charges of 'intimidating a police officer in execution of their duty, resisting a police officer in execution of their duty, and being an excluded person who failed to leave a premises when required'.

Football Odds

Melbourne City have been given a big boost ahead of the trip to Sydney with the news that on-loan Celtic winger Marco Tilio is back fit and available for selection. The 23-year-old has been out of action since suffering a hamstring injury in the 1-0 win at Western United on November 4 but appears ready to take up a spot on the substitutes bench this weekend.

Tilio has been joined in the extended squad by 19-year-old defender, Harry Shillington, who is still awaiting his ALM debut.

Meanwhile, 19-year-old forward Max Caputo is said to be progressing well in his recovery from a broken leg suffered in pre-season, but he's been pencilled in for a friendly with City’s VPL1 side this weekend to build match fitness rather than being thrown into the first team straight away.

Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles), Andreas Kuen (hamstring), Yonatan Cohen, Andrew Nabbout, Jayden Necovski and Alessandro Lopane (all knee) remain sidelined, however.

Macarthur vs Melbourne City Odds

Macarthur won the corresponding fixture 2-0 last season (March 2024) and haven't lost to Melbourne City in their last three meetings, yet the Bulls are slight underdogs at 8/5, implying a win probability of 38.5%, whereas the visitors' odds of 7/5 have them at 41.7%.

Two of the last three head-to-heads have ended in a stalemate and you can back a draw on Saturday at 9/4 while both teams to score, a winner in three of the last four games between the two sides, is priced at 4/7.

Home forward Valere Germain (13/8) is shortest priced in the anytime goalscorer market followed by City pair Medin Memeti (2/1) and Arion Sulemani (11/5).

Player to Receive a Card - Kai Trewin (MC) @ 13/2

Centre-back Kai Trewin has been an ever-present in the City side since his off-season move from Brisbane Roar where he had spent the past five seasons, racking up 105 appearances in the ALM.

The 23-year-old has started and finished all 13 of City's league games in 2024/25 and has been integral to their mean defensive record of just 13 goals conceded which is second only to Auckland (11).

For the most part, he has kept his cool, but both of his bookings have come since Christmas, in back-to-back games against Central Coast Mariners (1-1) and Wellington Phoenix (2-0). Already, he has doubled his yellow card tally from last season and matched that of his 2022/23 campaign, while he needs just one more to equal his highest-ever card count of three in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons.

Trewin isn't overly aggressive but 0.9 fouls per game, up from 0.4 last term, is a significant jump, and on Saturday, he will be up against an experienced centre-forward in Germain who knows how to use his body well and win free-kicks.

Germain was fouled, on average, 1.2 times per game in the ALM last season and that has increased to 1.6 this term.

Considering his post-Christmas card count, and the potential danger posed by Germain at Campbelltown Stadium, I think we're getting a great price for a Trewin booking this weekend.

Anytime Goalscorer - Jed Drew (MAC) @ 5/2

Macarthur winger Jed Drew has emerged as one of the standout stars in the ALM this season, scoring six times and registering the same number of assists in 12 appearances.

Such form has perked the interest of clubs overseas with a side from Sweden and Austria looking to snare his services if recent reports are to be believed.

For now, though, Drew remains on the Bulls' books, and the 21-year-old will be looking to get back on the scoresheet this weekend after failing to fire on Monday against the Nix.

Drew did provide the assist for Jake Hollman's opener in that game, the fifth time in the last six that he has either scored or registered an assist.

Saturday is the chance for Drew to notch a first career goal against City and 5/2 is a nice price to back him to do so on home soil.

Offers

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