Luton vs Leeds Prediction: Visitors need to refocus

Leeds' momentum in the Championship promotion race has taken a hit with just one win in their last five matches, and they find themselves two points behind league leaders Sheffield United. They were crushed by a late Swansea equaliser last weekend and they need to refocus. Their  next fixture comes at Kenilworth Road to take on Luton Town on Saturday (12:30, Sky Sports Main Event).

The Hatters are fighting for their lives towards the bottom of the table and they are currently two points adrift of safety. Their form has been improving recently so this is going to be a tough trip for Leeds. This is a huge game for both teams and you will find my Luton vs Leeds predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Luton duo Marvelous Nakamba and Jacob Brown have been ruled out for the rest of the season with knee and ankle injuries respectively. Shandon Baptiste (calf), Teden Mengi (knee) and Tom Lockyer (ankle) are the other members in the treatment room for the hosts.

Tahith Chong made his first appearance since January 6 by coming off the bench to feature against Hull City on Saturday. He gives the Hatters another attacking dynamic but it looks like he will be given time to build up his fitness before returning to the starting lineup.

Luton were thankful for a comedic own goal from Hull's Alex Jones last time out to gift them a huge three points, and boss Matt Bloomfield may opt for the same XI here seeing as his side recorded another clean sheet.

Leeds attacker Wilfried Gnonto was fit to feature in the stalemate with Swansea last time out, bagging what he thought was the winning goal in the 86th minute. If Daniel Farke decides to freshen things up against Luton, the Italian could be given the nod to start.

Patrick Bamford is available again after three months out with an ankle issue, but he was not in the matchday squad last time out.

Goalkeeper Illan Meslier has produced three errors leading to goals in the Championship this season, with the latest coming against the Swans. It has appeared that Farke has seen enough too, and he has made the call to drop the Frenchman for Karl Darlow moving forward.

Luton vs Leeds Odds

Luton have won three of their last five games in the Championship and they are 5/1 to stun Leeds on Saturday.

The hosts have drawn two of their latest three home games in the league, while Leeds have drawn their previous two fixtures in the second tier. The draw is available at 3/1, which has an implied probability of 25%.

Leeds are 4/7 to get back to winning ways but they have failed to win in their past two away trips.

Each of Luton's last seven home games in the league have produced under 2.5 goals, which is marketed at 4/5 on this occasion.

Leeds and under 2.5 goals @ 9/4

We are in the business end of the season and there are just seven games left to play. Leeds' drop in form is of course concerning because their supporters do not want to have to go through the emotional rollercoaster of the play-offs again, following their Wembley heartbreak against Southampton last May.

The Whites are currently second with 82 points, the same number as Burnley in third, who are in far greater form. After the disappointment against Swansea, Farke and his players need to deliver a huge response against Luton, and I fancy them to do just that.

When it comes to individual quality no one in the division can match Leeds' squad. They are going through a bit of a rough patch but their players are more than capable of digging them out of it.

Luton may have been on a decent run in recent weeks but they will face a tough task against the promotion favourites, who cruised to victory against the Hatters in the reverse fixture back in November (3-0).

This is a game which Leeds will be expected to win, and I believe they cannot afford anymore setbacks. I've added under 2.5 goals to the selection because I previously mentioned that this has been a successful bet in Luton's last seven home games in the Championship.

Leeds clean sheet @ 1/1

Leeds' biggest concerns right now are at the back and they have conceded twice in their past two games. Farke will want to bring back some defensive solidity as that will provide them with the foundations to get back on the winning trail.

This game will be a big test for Leeds all over the pitch and I feel as though they will be desperate to record a shutout. This could be the right place to get it as Luton have blanked in five of their previous seven games at Kenilworth Road in the league.

The visitors have managed a clean sheet against the Hatters already this term, so I'm backing them to do so this time around.

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