Luton Town vs Cardiff City Prediction: Bluebirds to continue flying form?

Luton Town picked up a point last Friday to lift themselves out of the relegation zone, but next up they face a Cardiff City team who are bang in form. In fact, they currently sit top of the form table after winning four and drawing two of their last six games under Omer Riza. 

It’s now surely only a matter of time before Riza is handed the permanent job, but for now, he will want to continue to ride this wave that has taken the Bluebirds up to 17th in the table. It means they will travel to Kenilworth Road full of confidence, and below you can find my Luton Town vs Cardiff City prediction. 

Team News

Luton will be happy to welcome back both Alfie Doughty and Tom Holmes after they served their suspensions last time out. Doughty had picked up five yellow cards while Holmes was sent off late on in the 3-2 defeat to Coventry, but both could return to the starting XI here. 

Amari’i Bell did well against West Brom so could retain his place in the back three while Teden Mengi is likely to be the one to miss out to accommodate Doughty, with a reshuffle needed at the back which will see Victor Moses return to right wing-back. Shandon Baptiste and Jacob Brown were part of an improved second-half showing but I’m not sure either will be able to force their way in, with Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris the preferred duo up front. 

Callum Robinson was a substitute against Norwich, but I’d expect him to come back into the Cardiff team to lead the line, after he scored from the bench. Riza played without an established attacker in order to combat the Canaries, but is expected to revert back to his 4-2-3-1 formation here, with Rubin Colwill starting behind the Republic of Ireland international. 

Chris Willock may drop out as a result, while Perry Ng’s return at right-back will be a welcome boost, after he also served his suspension last time out against Norwich. Former Luton goalkeeper Ethan Horvath is likely to have to settle for a place on Cardiff’s bench. 

Luton Town vs Cardiff City Odds 

Luton are priced at 9/10 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. Cardiff are priced at 3/1 to take all three points, while a draw is available at 13/5. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 and BTTS is 8/11. Abebayo and Morris are the favourites to score first, both priced at 5/1. 

Double chance: Cardiff City or draw @ 9/10

I simply cannot back against Cardiff right now, and I think you would be slightly naive to back them to lose. It feels like this is a game that has been priced up on paper, with Luton recently relegated from the Premier League playing at home, they are the odds-on favourites. But the reality is they have been a poor side so far in the Championship, and the 21st position they occupy in the table is a fair representation of what we’ve seen so far. 

Cardiff meanwhile may currently lie in 17th, but they’ve been one of the best sides in the league under Riza. Wins against Norwich, Portsmouth and Plymouth have carried them out of danger and although this is a big test, I’m happy to back the form team to get something at Kenilworth Road. 

Cardiff City to win both halves @ 14/1

Do I think this is realistically going to happen? Probably not - but, I do think this offers absolutely massive value and is worth putting a small stake on. Cardiff are one of the best teams in the league right now, according to the amount of points they have picked up over the last six matches, and I think they could beat Luton here. 

Now Luton have the stronger squad on paper but when you match that up against Cardiff’s confidence, I think the Bluebirds can come out on top. Backing them to win both halves at Kenilworth Road is a big ask, but we are getting a massive price on them to do so. I think it’s worth a punt at this stage. 

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