Liverpool vs West Ham Prediction: Nunez to net first in high-scoring Reds win

Arne Slot gets his first taste of Carabao Cup action on Wednesday night (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) as his Liverpool side host Julen Lopetegui's West Ham United at Anfield in the third round of the competition.

Read below for my Liverpool vs West Ham prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as the Reds and the Irons bid to reach the last 16.

Team News

Alisson Becker missed Liverpool's 3-0 victory over AFC Bournemouth on Saturday through injury and is unlikely to be risked on Wednesday with deputy goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher, who made several saves against the Cherries, always pencilled in to start this game anyway.

Conor Bradley and Kostas Tsimikas are set to come in at full-back for Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson, while Jarell Quansah and Joe Gomez may start at centre-back to give Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk a rest.

In midfield, Wataru Endo and Curtis Jones - both yet to start a competitive fixture under Slot - should get the nod, with Alexis Mac Allister most likely to drop out. One of Ryan Gravenerch and Dominik Szoboszlai may start alongside the duo unless Slot places his faith in 21-year-old Tyler Morton or 17-year-old Trey Nyoni.

Slot has suggested that summer signing Federico Chiesa, who played his first minutes as a Red during the latter stages of Saturday's game, will make his full debut on Wednesday, but stressed that he will not last the duration. The Italian is likely to feature from the right, in place of Mohamed Salah, while Cody Gakpo will start from the other side.

There is a decision to be made up top as Diogo Jota stayed rooted to the substitutes bench on Saturday and should be fresh for the visit of West Ham. Still, Darwin Nunez scored on his first start of the season against the Cherries and should be allowed to prove his worth from the beginning again.

Football Odds

After losing at home to Manchester City (0-3) and Chelsea (1-3) either side of a 1-1 draw at Fulham, West Ham head coach Lopetegui must decide whether heavy rotation in the cup is worth the risk.

There should be three or four changes at least, though, considering the so-called starters are yet to spark into life this season. Polish shot-stopper Lukasz Fabianski replaced Alphonse Areola for the second-round visit of Bournemouth to the London Stadium, where the Cherries were beaten 1-0, and the 39-year-old is in line to play again in the competition.

Alterations could also be made to the right side of the defence with Vladimir Coufal coming in for Aaron Wan-Bissaka at right-back and Jean-Clair Todibo replacing the under-fire Konstantinos Mavropanos at centre-back, but Max Kilman and Emerson should keep their spots on the left side.

Guido Rodriguez was hooked for Tomas Soucek before half-time on Saturday and the Argentine should drop out of the starting XI for the Czech Republic international at Anfield, and Carlos Soler could join him and Edson Alvarez in midfield to make his full Irons debut.

Mohammed Kudus and captain Jarrod Bowen should keep their places, but Lucas Paqueta and Crysencio Summerville could make way to accommodate Michail Antonio.

Liverpool vs West Ham Odds

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Liverpool are 4/11 to beat West Ham in regulation time, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 73.3%, while the visitors are 15/2, or an 11.8% chance, to cause an upset without the need for penalties.

The draw, which would send the tie to a penalty shoot-out, is available at 4/1, with both teams to score at 8/11.

The Reds thrashed the Irons 5-1 at Anfield in the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup last December and are 28/1 to win by that same scoreline on Wednesday.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Liverpool & Yes @ 13/8

There have been 17 goals scored across the last four meetings between Liverpool and West Ham, with both teams finding the net in all four. The Reds won the first three, including last December's Carabao Cup victory at Anfield, before the Irons fought back to draw 2-2 at the London Stadium in Jurgen Klopp's penultimate away game as Liverpool boss.

Liverpool have won nine of the last 11 head-to-heads, but West Ham did score in six of those triumphs and netted in Lopetegui's first five games as head coach until blanking in defeat to Chelsea on the weekend.

Wednesday's hosts have kept four clean sheets out of six under Slot but have made minimal changes to their backline, something which is expected to change in midweek with the likes of Bradley and Gomez coming in for their first starts of the season.

As such, the visitors - who may opt against making wholesale changes given the pressure already on Lopetegui - could find some joy at Anfield, with Bowen and Kudus their biggest threats in attack. Bowen struck in this fixture last season and was also on target in both league games, meaning he has scored in his last three appearances against Liverpool.

I think we can expect more entertainment between the two sides, but with West Ham shipping seven goals across their last three matches and facing a confident Liverpool side at Anfield, the Reds should come out on top in this one.

First Goal Scorer - Darwin Nunez @ 9/2

Slot's post-match press conference on Saturday alluded to Nunez being allowed to show some consistency, so I'm expecting the Uruguayan to make back-to-back starts on Wednesday, and should that be the case, 9/2 for him to score first looks a terrific price.

The 25-year-old has been criticised for his erratic finishing since joining from Benfica in June 2022 but he showed brilliant technique against Bournemouth to stroke one in from an angle with his left foot.

The challenge now is for Nunez to kick on and prove he can score consistently, and by doing that he will earn a regular starting spot.

Interestingly, when Nunez does start and score, it's usually the first of the game. In the first half of the calendar year - the second half of last season - the Uruguay international scored nine times for Liverpool, and five of those strikes were the opening - or only - goal of the match.

At 9/2, I'm backing him to make another fast start on Wednesday.

Offers

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