Liverpool vs Real Madrid Prediction: Bet on Diaz to hit the back of the net

The match of the night in the Champions League comes from Anfield, where Liverpool and Real Madrid renew hostilities, having played in several classic games in years past. TNt Sports 1 has this one from 20:00.

Our Spanish Football betting expert caught the assignment for this one. He previews the action and provides us with his best bets as he takes us through his Liverpool vs Real Madrid Predictions...

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over at betfred.com

Liverpool and Real Madrid’s Champions League rivalry resumes on Wednesday night at Anfield, with arguably the standout fixture of the entire league phase. 

It’s the runaway Premier League leaders against the Champions League holders, and a clash between two clubs who have contested three previous European Cup finals. 

Los Blancos defeated the Reds to lift the trophy in Kyiv in 2018 and Paris in 2022. They also won 5-2 on their most recent visit to Anfield in 2023, continuing a recent spell of Real Madrid domination in this fixture, with the Spanish club winning seven of the last eight meetings. 

There’s certainly optimism on Merseyside that this latest clash might buck that trend though and with good reason. Liverpool have been outstanding this season under their new boss Arne Slot and head into the match having won 13 of their last 14 games in all competitions, drawing the other away at Arsenal. 

With Manchester City also visiting this weekend, it’s a huge week at Anfield, and right now they are top of both the Premier League and the Champions League table, with the new league phase at its midway point. 

Liverpool have comfortably dispatched Bologna and Bayer Leverkusen to nil at home in the competition so far, with road wins against AC Milan and Leipzig ensuring Slot’s side hold the only remaining 100% record. They may only need one more victory to clinch a top eight finish and progress into the round-of-16. 

They’ll have three more opportunities to get it after this game, but this is a chance to send down a real marker, whilst also landing a fresh blow on one of the teams most likely to get in the way of their bid to win a seventh European Cup. 

While it has been pretty smooth sailing for the Reds so far this term, there have been choppier waters for Real Madrid to negotiate, with a mounting injury crisis leaving them very light at the back, while Kylian Mbappé is yet to make the big impact that they’d have been hooping for. 

Aside from their recent 4-0 home humiliation in El Clásico, Real Madrid have also lost Champions League matches against Lille and Milan. A 3-1 defeat against the latter was easily one of the worst performances we’ve seen from Los Blancos in the competition in recent years and if they play like that at Anfield on Wednesday, it’ll be a very long night for Carlo Ancelotti’s side. 

The Italian would at least have been pleased by the way his side has responded since the Milan game. A 4-0 victory over Osasuna at the Santiago Bernabéu, was followed up by a 3-0 win at neighbours Leganés at the weekend in La Liga. 

They really didn’t need to leave first gear in that game, in a dominant display that saw makeshift right-back Fede Valverde fire in a fine free-kick, while there were simple finishes from Mbappé and Jude Bellingham either side of that goal. 

A long-term solution to what has become their problem right-back position may come in the form of Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold whose contract expires this coming summer. If he can shake off a minor injury to feature, Alexander-Arnold’s presence against the club he has been strongly linked with joining, is a significant subplot to what promises to be a cracking game. 

Team News: 

Fresh uncertainty over Mohamed Salah’s future has largely overshadowed his match winning display in Liverpool’s 3-2 win at Southampton on Sunday, but the Egyptian is sure to start again here. Alexander-Arnold missed the trip to St. Mary’s, with Conor Bradley on standby to fill in again on Wednesday. 

Slot is also missing Diogo Jota, Federico Chiesa and Alisson Becker. Luis Díaz and Alexis Mac Allister are both expected to be recalled to the starting lineup for the visit of the reigning European champions. 

Real Madrid have big problems in defence with Éder Militão, David Alaba and Dani Carvajal all recovering from ACL injuries. Aurélien Tchouaméni would ordinarily fill in as a central defender, but he’s also dealing with a problem of his own, so this could be a big night for 21-year-old Raúl Asencio who only made his first Real Madrid start on Saturday. 

There’s better news for Los Blancos in that Lucas Vázquez is fit again and could feature at right-back which would enable Fede Valverde to shift back into midfield. However, neither  

Vinícius Júnior nor Rodrygo has travelled to England due to injury, so Mbappé will certainly be the focal point of the visiting attack. 

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Odds

Liverpool are the clear favourites at 9/10 (53% probability) to win this match and claim a first victory over Los Blancos since a 4-0 win on this ground in 2009. You can back Real Madrid at 11/4 (27%), while the Draw is also priced at 11/4 (also 27%). 

For bigger returns on a home win, you can back Liverpool and Over 2.5 goals at 6/4, while Liverpool and Both teams to score is priced at 21/10. The Reds are also on offer at 7/5 to score in both halves of this match. 

If you fancy the 15-time European champions to turn up with a big performance at Anfield, you can back Real Madrid to score over 1.5 goals at 6/4. The visitors are also priced at 6/5 to win either half. 

As far as the goalscorer markets go, Salah leads the way at 4/1 to score first and 5/4 to score anytime. Darwin Núñez is also on offer at 8/5 to score anytime. 

From a Real Madrid perspective, you can back Mbappé to score first at 9/2 or anytime at 13/8. Jude Bellingham, who has scored in his last two Real Madrid games, is a big price of 4/1 to score anytime. 

There are also loads of Bet Builder options such as Liverpool to win, Salah to score anytime and Liverpool 5+ corners, which has been boosted to 5/1. 

Bet 1 - Liverpool over 1.5 goals & Real Madrid over 19.5 booking points @ 11/10 

You can never totally write Real Madrid off in Europe, but they have looked vulnerable in the competition this season, conceding at least once in all four matches. Their defensive injury woes have only grown since their miserable 3-1 home defeat to Milan on matchday four, so if Liverpool are anywhere near their best, this is going to be a tough game for the Real Madrid defence. 

Slot’s side weren’t at their best at Southampton on Sunday, but they still scored three goals and they have some fresh legs to bring in here. A high intensity game looks likely between two of the strongest teams in Europe and Real Madrid may at times need to resort to slowing the game down and trying to knock Liverpool out of their stride on what’s sure to be a noisy night at Anfield. 

That could see the foul count rise and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Liverpool over 1.5 goals and Real Madrid over 19.5 booking points at 11/10. 

Bet 2 - Luis Díaz to score anytime @ 15/8 

Much of the pre-game talk will most likely centre around Salah and Mbappé, but Luis Díaz will have a really big role to play for Liverpool. Most likely operating off the left flank, he could be in direct competition with Lucas Vázquez who has looked really vulnerable since coming into the side following the injury to Carvajal. 

Youngster Raúl Asencio, who had only featured in the Spanish third tier until earlier this month, could also be the right sided centre-back, so that side of the defence has the potential to be a big problem for Real Madrid in this game. With nine goals in all competitions already this season for Liverpool, Díaz is well capable of taking advantage and I’m backing the Colombian to score anytime at 15/8. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights writers on our Football home page...