Liverpool Montevideo vs Palmeiras Prediction: Visitors vulnerable again after Sao Paulo scare

Liverpool Montevideo host Palmeiras at the Estadio Centenario in Copa Libertadores Group F on Thursday (KO, 23:00), with both sides looking to push on after encouraging starts to their respective campaigns. The Uruguayans are currently third on four points after beating bottom club San Lorenzo and drawing with Independiente del Valle, with their only defeat so far coming at the hands of group leaders Palmeiras, who are on seven points.

Below you can find my Liverpool Montevideo vs Palmeiras prediction, as the Brazilians aim to do the double over their opponents.

Liverpool came from behind to rescue a point in a 1-1 draw with Ecuadorian outfit Independiente in their opening Group F fixture on April 5 before losing 3-1 to Palmeiras in Sao Paulo a week later.

Jean Rosso opened the scoring for Liverpool at Allianz Parque inside three minutes, but Anibal Moreno equalised in first-half stoppage time before Flaco Lopez and 17-year-old wonderkid Estevao each struck in the second half to secure victory for the Brazilian giants.

The Uruguayans recovered from that setback to win their first group game against San Lorenzo (1-0) on April 24, with second-half substitute Nicola Franco striking deep into added time to see off the Argentinian side.

Palmeiras' victory over Liverpool was sandwiched by a 1-1 draw in Buenos Aires, where Joaquin Piquerez's expertly-taken free-kick salvaged a point against San Lorenzo, and a 3-2 win in Quito where they recovered from going two goals down to triumph courtesy of strikes from Real Madrid-bound Endrick, Lazaro and Luis Guilherme.

Team News

Liverpool last played on Friday, drawing 2-2 with Penarol, and appeared not to pick up any significant issues that will keep any of their stars out of action this week.

Bruno Rodrigues and Dudu remain injured for the visitors, who are likely to pair the teenage duo of Endrick and Estevao in attack alongside the more experienced Rony.

Match Odds

Liverpool are 11/2 to avenge last month's defeat with a victory of their own on Thursday, giving them an implied win probability of 15.4%, while Palmeiras can be backed at 4/9 (69.2%), and the draw at 11/4.

Both teams found the net in the reverse fixture and it's 1/1 for BTTS - Yes again.

Both teams to score @ 1/1

This selection has landed in all three of Palmeiras' Copa Libertadores group games so far, as well as in two of Liverpool's - only their 1-0 win over San Lorenzo last time out has seen both teams fail to find the net.

There's every reason to suggest BTTS - Yes will land again here, as it did in the reverse fixture last month, where each side struck before half-time.

At home - albeit not at the venue where they play their league games - Liverpool will be expected to adopt a slightly more front-footed approach than the one they adopted in Brazil. That was partly because they scored so early on, but also because Palmeiras were big favourites to win.

Liverpool are underdogs once again on Thursday, but they are unbeaten at home so far in the group, drawing to Independiente and beating San Lorenzo.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, were 1-0 down after 20 minutes away to San Lorenzo and only struck an equaliser in the 81st minute, while they were two down inside 40 minutes in Ecuador as Independiente threatened a famous win in Quito.

The Brazilians did fight back to win, but those two games go to show just how vulnerable they are, particularly away from home. As such, backing both teams to score at 1/1 feels like the sensible pick in Montevideo.

Indeed, Liverpool last failed to score at home on August 20, scoring in 22 straight games since, with BTTS - Yes landing in 11 of them.

Jean Rosso anytime goalscorer @ 14/1

Providing a lot less certainty, but much more value, is Liverpool defender Rosso to score anytime on Thursday.

Rosso's career stats don't point towards that of a goalscoring defender, but since returning to the club from Argentine side Sarmiento Junin at the start of the calendar year, the 27-year-old has been in prolific form.

The Uruguayan has three goals in his last five starts, kicking off the run with a strike against Palmeiras in last month's reverse fixture. He followed that up with one in his next game, away at Montevideo Wanderers in the league.

Rosso's most recent goal came in Liverpool's last match, a 2-2 draw with Penarol.

Perhaps this has just been a lucky run in front of goal, but considering only two players - Liverpool duo Matias de los Santos (18/1) and Francisco Bregante (20/1) - are longer odds to score anytime on Thursday, Rosso may be worth considering as a long shot selection at 14/1.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.