Lithuania vs Netherlands Prediction: Dutch goalscorer offers value

The Netherlands are within touching distance of the 2026 World Cup having picked up seven points from three matches in Group G. That puts them top, level on points with both Poland and Finland, albeit with a game in hand on both. 

Their next test takes them to Lithuania (17:00 BST, Amazon Prime Video) and a win should take them to the World Cup. Below you can find my Lithuania vs Netherlands predictions featuring team news and more. 

Team News

The Dutch drew 1-1 with Poland on Thursday night and Ronald Koeman chose Brighton’s Jan Paul van Hecke to partner Virgil van Dijk in defence. With Denzel Dumfries at right-back and Micky van de Ven at left-back, Premier League trio Matthijs de Ligt, Nathan Ake and Jurrien Timber were all left on the bench. 

Rotation may be an option given how strong the Dutch are in comparison to their opposition, but Bart Verbruggen looks to have established himself as the number one choice in goal. Xavi Simons, now of Spurs, joined Tijjani Reijnders and Cody Gakpo behind Memphis Depay in that draw, with this squad having a large Premier League influence throughout. 

Donyell Malen will want to get more minutes along with Justin Kluivert in the attacking third, while Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch and Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong lock down a talented midfield. 

Football Odds

Lithuania will be without centre-back Edgaras Utkus, after he was sent off in the 99th minute of their 1-1 draw with Malta. Markas Beneta may be his replacement to play alongside Edvinas Girdvainis and in front of Cluj goalkeeper Edvinas Gertmonas.

21-year-old midfielder Gvidas Gineitis converted a late penalty to rescue a point for the hosts, and he will star again in the number 10 role behind striker Gytis Paulauskas.

Lithuania vs Netherlands Odds

Lithuania are the rank outsiders for this tie at 28/1, while the Netherlands are 1/12 to secure an important win. That gives them an implied win probability of 92%, while a draw can be backed at 9/1.

Over 2.5 goals is 4/9, BTTS is 21/10 and Depay is the favourite to score first at 11/4. 

The Netherlands to win with -2 handicap @ 9/10

This should be pretty straightforward stuff for the Netherlands, and it's remarkable to see the level of talent they now have in their squad. It’s not that long since they failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup and yet now this new crop of players have emerged, and a lot of them are playing for the biggest clubs in the world. 

De Jong is at Barcelona, Van Dijk, Gakpo and Gravenberch all won the Premier League with Liverpool last season and Reijnders and Simons are summer additions to that division. It feels as though it’s all come together at the right time for Koeman, and even though he may not be the greatest manager in the world - he should be able to provide them with enough cohesion to get them deep into the World Cup. 

More importantly for this selection, their attacking talent should tear Lithuania apart, given they have failed to beat Malta twice in their last three games - and been hammered 5-0 by Denmark in their other recent match. Big away win expected. 

Denzel Dumfries to score anytime @ 3/1

I always like looking at the odds for Dumfries to score at any time based on the way he plays the game, but this price has caught my eye. The Netherlands are going to dominate this encounter and should rack up four or five goals in my opinion, while Dumfries will play as high as possible on that right side. 

He’s already scored 11 goals in 66 games for his country but of those 11, five have come in the last 12 months. He found the net against Poland and is getting better and better in front of goal, so I think this selection offers huge value given the opposition. 

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