Lithuania vs Kosovo Prediction: Zhegrova to break barren run in front of goal for Kosovo

Lithuania already look to be up against it in their Uefa Nations League campaign after losing to both Cyprus and Romania last month, while Kosovo experienced mixed fortunes as they followed up a 3-0 home defeat to Romania with a 4-0 victory in Cyprus.

The two nations lock horns at the Darius and Girenas Stadium in Kaunas on Saturday (14:00) and ahead of the Group C2 clash, you can check out my Lithuania vs Kosovo prediction below, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

There are a few changes to the Lithuania squad from last month. Linas Klimavicius, Danielis Romanovskis, Ovidijaus Verbickas and Matas Vareikas have all dropped out and been replaced by Gvidas Gineitis, Paulius Golubickas and Fedor Cernych, who have recovered from injuries to take their place back in the national team setup.

Two uncapped goalkeepers have been named in Edgaras Jankauskas' squad so it seems certain that 13-cap shot-stopper Edvinas Gertmonas will line up between the sticks again, with Justas Lasickas and Edvinas Girdvainis providing experience in defence.

Captain Cernych will be back in midfield after missing last month's internationals and he is by far Lithuania's most prolific active player with 15 goals for the senior side - 12 more than the next best, Vykintas Slivka and Armandas Kucys (both three).

Football Odds

Ipswich Town's Arijanet Muric will return in goal against Lithuania after missing Kosovo's victory over Cyprus last time out, and he will play behind the likes of Napoli centre-back Amir Rrahmani and Alanyaspor full-back Florent Hadergjonaj.

Lille winger Edon Zhegrova will be expected to bring the magic in attack after his Player of the Match performance in the Champions League against Real Madrid earlier this month, while Milot Rashica will shoulder extra goalscoring responsibility in the absence of Kosovo's all-time record goalscorer Vedat Muriqi, who is injured and will miss both games.

Lithuania vs Kosovo Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Lithuania vs Kosovo page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Lithuania are 4/1 to claim all three points in Kaunas, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 20%. Meanwhile, Kosovo - who won the only previous meeting between the sides 4-0 in March 2021 - are 8/11 (57.9%) to triumph, with the draw priced at 11/5.

Both teams to score can be backed at 6/5 and over 2.5 total goals at 11/8.

Kosovo's Albion Rrahmani (9/5) leads the anytime goalscorer market followed by teammate Fisnik Asslani (12/5), with Kucys (18/5) shortest priced for the hosts.

To Win to Nil - Kosovo @ 6/4

Kosovo have lost three of their five matches played this calendar year, but all three defeats were against superior opposition in Hungary, Norway and Romania. In the two games they were favourites, they won both - 1-0 v Armenia and 4-0 v Cyprus.

Lithuania, meanwhile, lost both of their Nations League matches last month and have only won five times since October 10, 2021 - against Gibraltar (x2), San Marino, Latvia and Bulgaria. Even the latter victory was achieved after Bulgaria went down to 10 men.

The absence of Muriqi is a big blow for Kosovo in Kaunas, with a brace from the Real Mallorca centre-forward putting the Balkan nation into a 2-0 lead in Cyprus last month before A. Rrahmani and Lumbardh Dellova added to the score in the second half.

That goal from Rrahmani offers some encouragement that the Sparta Prague forward can act as an adequate replacement for Muriqi on Saturday, with the 24-year-old on target for his club side in the Prague derby last Sunday.

I'm expecting Kosovo to claim victory in this one, and I think they can keep a clean sheet in the process. BTTS - No has landed in nine of their last 10 games, four of which they have won, while Lithuania have blanked in five of their last eight defeats.

I struggle to see anyone in the Lithuania team causing many problems for the Kosovans on Saturday.

Anytime Goalscorer - Edon Zhegrova (KOS) @ 13/5

As Kosovo's second all-time top scorer, and at the same price as Zhegrova, I was tempted to back Rashica (13/5) to fill Muriqi's boots on Saturday and net in Kaunas.

However, Rashica has only scored twice since the start of April, one of which has come since the start of the 2024/25 season for club side Besiktas.

The 28-year-old isn't in the best form in front of goal, so instead I'm plumping for Zhegrova to net for just the fifth time in Kosovan colours, and for the first time since March 2023.

The Lille star has been in terrific form for the Ligue 1 club this term, scoring three times in the Champions League play-offs to help his side into the group stage, where he has since starred, inspiring Les Douges to a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid earlier this month.

He's also struck three times in the French top flight, including once at home to Paris Saint-Germain on September 1.

Zhegrova is yet to truly announce himself on the international stage, but I think Saturday is the day he breaks his barren spell for Kosovo.

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