Libertad vs Nacional Prediction: Visitors to fall short in top spot quest

Libertad host Nacional at the Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion on Friday (KO, 01:00) knowing that a point in their final Copa Libertadores Group H match will guarantee third spot and a place in the Copa Sudamericana knockouts.

The visitors can still finish first but will need to win, hope leaders River Plate lose at home to Deportivo Tachira, and overcome a five-goal swing. Read on for my Libertad vs Nacional prediction ahead of this final-round clash in Paraguay.

Libertad kicked off their Libertadores campaign with a 2-0 defeat to Nacional in Montevideo, with Leandro Lozano and Ruben Bentancourt striking in either half to get the Uruguayans off to a good start in Group H.

The Paraguayans recovered from that setback to beat Deportivo Tachira 3-0 at home, but that remains their only victory in this year's competition, as a 1-1 draw with the Venezuelans in San Cristobal was sandwiched by a couple of defeats to River Plate (1-2, 2-0).

Libertad head into Friday's contest on four points, three ahead of bottom side Deportivo Tachira, who also have a much inferior goal difference of -7 compared to Libertad's -2.

Nacional followed up an opening-round win against Libertad with a 2-0 defeat to River in Buenos Aires before getting their second win of the group against Deportivo Tachira (2-1). Alvaro Recoba's side then drew 2-2 with River and secured a top-two finish with a 1-0 victory over Deportivo Tachira on May 15.

Team News

Hector Villalba is still recovering from a cruciate ligament tear and will miss out again for Libertad on Friday.

Like Villalba, Nacional's Renzo Sanchez is sidelined due to a cruciate ligament tear, and he will likely be watching on alongside Thiago Helguera, who has been absent for his side's last seven games with a muscle injury.

Libertad vs Nacional Odds

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Libertad are 11/10 to triumph on Friday, giving them an implied win probability of 47.6%, while Nacional are 23/10, or a 30.3% chance, to do the double over their opponents.

The draw can be backed at 21/10, both teams to score at 5/6, and over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Both teams to score - No @ 5/6

Three of Libertad's first five games in Group H have seen at least one team fail to score, while BTTS - No has also landed in three of Nacional's matches, including their opening-round victory over the Paraguayans.

Nacional require all three points to stand a chance of catching River and pipping them to top spot, but they will be aware that is a hugely ambitious target given the Argentinian giants only need to avoid defeat at home to group whipping boys Deportivo Tachira.

As such, I don't see them going all out for the win, and they may naturally adopt a more cautious approach away from home. They've only scored one in two on their travels, while Libertad kept a clean sheet in their last home match, a 5-0 victory over Nacional Asuncion, and in a 3-0 win there against Deportivo Tachira on April 10.

BTTS - No has landed in Libertad's last four games across all competitions, with Ariel Galeano's side blanking in the first two - one of which was a goalless draw - before shutting out the opposition in wins in their most recent two.

Libertad to win @ 11/10

A tight contest is expected in Asuncion on Friday, but if one team is to claim all three points, Libertad look best placed.

Nacional won the reverse fixture convincingly in Montevideo but with home advantage now on the side of the Paraguayans, that could all change.

Libertad need a point to make sure of third place, and at home, I expect them to take the game to their opponents.

The visitors still have a chance of top spot but it's hugely unlikely, and thus the motivation to win should be more heavily weighted in favour of the hosts, which could give them an edge in this game.

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