Leeds vs Sheff Utd Prediction: Bogle to mark Blades return with yellow for Whites

The EFL Championship returns on Friday night (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) with a real humdinger of a contest in West Yorkshire as Leeds United entertain Sheffield United at Elland Road.

Read below for my Leeds vs Sheff Utd prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Yorkshire derby between two automatic promotion contenders.

Team News

Leeds head coach Daniel Farke has a lengthy injury list in front of him with long-term absentees Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev and Max Wober all ruled out of Friday's clash.

There's better news, however, over Dan James and Manor Solomon, who missed internationals this past week with Wales and Israel respectively. James hasn't featured since scoring in a 2-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday on August 23 but has been involved in "major parts" of team training ahead of the visit of the Blades, according to Farke, who said the same about Solomon who hasn't played since the 1-0 defeat to Burnley on August 14.

Substitute outings might be more realistic for the pair with Largie Ramazani, Wilfried Gnonto and Brenden Aaronson primed to start in attack behind Joel Piroe.

Many eyes will be on two players further back, with Jayden Bogle making his first appearance against his old side since crossing the Yorkshire divide in the summer, and goalkeeper Ilian Meslier looking to put his dreadful error against Sunderland last time out behind him.

Football Odds

Tom Davies remains injured for the visitors, who are likely to make changes to the starting XI that began their 2-0 victory over Luton Town on October 5.

Sam McCallum and Rhian Brewster were handed their first league starts of the season in that win at Bramall Lane but Harrison Burrows and Gustavo Hamer are expected to retake their places in Chris Wilder's lineup at Elland Road, where Leeds Academy graduate Jamie Shackleton could appear as a second-half substitute.

Leeds vs Sheff Utd Odds

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Leeds are 8/11 to take all three points on Friday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 57.9%, while the visitors are 100/30, or a 23.1% chance, to earn the bragging rights, with the draw at 12/5.

Both teams to score is priced at 5/6 and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11, while Whites trio Piroe, Patrick Bamford and Mateo Joseph lead the anytime goalscorer market at 9/5, with Moore shortest-priced for the Blades at 11/4.

Both Teams to Score - Yes @ 5/6

These two clubs feature low down in the Championship BTTS table, with the Blades out by themselves at the bottom with just 22% (2/9) of their league games seeing a goal on both sides. Leeds' record is only marginally better with 33% (3/9) of their second-tier contests ending with both teams scoring.

The biggest reason for this is that both defences have held firm this term, with Sheff Utd keeping seven clean sheets - including six in as many games since the start of September - and Leeds recording five shutouts. The Blades, in fact, have conceded just three goals in the Championship - fewer than every other team - while the Whites have only let in seven - the fifth-best record alongside Middlesbrough.

So, why should we back goals in Friday's fixture?

Well, only Sunderland (18) and Norwich City (16) have scored more times in the league than Leeds (15), who have scored eight goals across their four matches at Elland Road and have only blanked once at home - in a 1-0 defeat to Burnley on September 14 - in the competition this season. Since that failure to breach the Clarets' defence, Farke's side have struck eight goals across four games, including a couple in a 2-2 draw at league leaders Sunderland last time out.

The Whites, though, have conceded four times in as many league matches at Elland Road, worryingly seeing Portsmouth put three past them there in a 3-3 draw on the campaign's opening weekend. Middlesbrough, meanwhile, beat them 3-0 in West Yorkshire in the Carabao Cup, albeit with both sides fielding weakened starting XIs.

Sheff Utd haven't scored more than two goals in a single Championship contest this term and have only struck twice on two occasions, a 2-0 victory at Hull City on September 13 and a 2-0 win over Luton Town last time out at Bramall Lane.

However, the Blades have been consistent scorers, only failing to strike in a goalless draw at Portsmouth on September 28.

The most recent meeting between these sides saw both score at Elland Road in a 2-1 Premier League win for Leeds in April 2021, which broke a three-game sequence of 1-0 scorelines, two in the favour of the Whites.

There should be plenty of attacking firepower on display on Friday night, so I'm happy to back BTTS - Yes at just under EVS as both sides look to lay a marker down for the season ahead.

Player to Receive a Card - Jayden Bogle (LEE) @ 11/4

Bogle served Sheffield United with distinction during his four years at Bramall Lane, playing over 100 times for the Blades following a September 2020 move from Derby County.

However, he angered supporters by making the switch to a different part of Yorkshire this summer and is likely to receive a hostile reception when the sides face off at Bramall Lane in the return fixture next year.

The cheers from the Whites faithful should drown out most of the boos coming his direction from the away section on Friday, but the 24-year-old is still likely to be a man with a lot on his plate as he looks to lock down the left-hand side of Sheff Utd's attack, which is likely to feature Burrows and one of Hamer or Callum O'Hare.

Burrows dropped down to the bench against Luton but had been an ever-present in his side's first eight league games of the season, flying forwards from left-back and making himself a nuisance, being fouled an average of 1.5 times per game.

Hamer has generally been deployed on the left of an attacking trio behind the centre-forward and the Dutchman has been fouled an average of 0.7 times per game while O'Hare, normally the most central of the players behind Moore, was shifted more to the left against Luton, and the summer signing from Coventry City has been fouled 1.6 times per game on average this term.

Bogle has his work cut out to deal with the Blades' left-hand side, and if his statistics this term are anything to go by, he may well concede a free-kick or two against his former club.

The former Derby County man is averaging 1.7 fouls per game in the 2024/25 Championship and in only one of his nine appearances has he not been whistled for upending an opponent.

He's already been booked four times - three in his last four games including his last two at Sunderland and Norwich - and with his others coming at Cardiff City and West Bromwich Albion, he hasn't actually been cautioned at Elland Road yet.

But, in a Yorkshire derby against his former side, who have a few players capable of drawing fouls, I think Bogle could incur the wrath of the referee on Friday and find himself in his notebook.

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