Lecce vs AC Milan Prediction: 4/1 pick says Milan miss out again

AC Milan’s latest desperate start to a season saw them lose at home to Cremonese on the opening weekend of Serie A, but they get another chance to get off the mark at the Via del Mare on Friday against Lecce (20:45 local, 19:45 BST, live on DAZN).

The 2-1 defeat to Davide Nicola’s side at San Siro felt like deja vu for a side who picked up just two points from their first three games last season. And my Lecce vs AC Milan predictions, which can be found below with full team news and Betfred’s match odds, will not be taking anything for granted.

Team News

Santiago Pierotti is back in the reckoning for Lecce having sat out the 0-0 draw at Genoa last Saturday due to suspension.

The attacker was sent off in first-half stoppage time in the 1-0 win at Lazio which closed last season, but having sat out his one-game ban he is now eligible to play once more.

Eusebio Di Francesco is still without Gaby Jean and Filip Marchwinski, both of whom are recovering from ACL ruptures.

This one might also come too quickly for new signing Nikola Stulic, who only joined the Salentini from Charleroi on Wednesday. The Serbian centre-forward arrived in a €5 million deal but only joined up with his team-mates on Wednesday.

For Milan there will still be no Rafael Leao, whose calf injury sustained in the Coppa Italia win over Bari continues to be an issue.

That ought to mean starting shirts for Santi Gimenez and Christian Pulisic, who led the line against Cremonese. The pair were partly responsible for a return of 24 shots with only six on target, and just Strahinja Pavlovic’s headed goal shortly before half-time to show for their efforts.

Samuel Chukwueze remains a Milan player at the time writing, but his proposed move to Fulham could see him being withdrawn from the squad prior to Friday night.

At the back, word is that Koni De Winter could be handed his Rossoneri debut, with Matteo Gabbia potentially making way.

Lecce vs AC Milan Odds

Draw & Both Teams To Score @ 4/1

There might be an inclination to just expect Milan to bounce back with a win. I’ve certainly been guilty of that before.

But I’m not sold on them just yet. With no Leao, they look pretty toothless. Against Cremonese their 24 shots were good for just 1.92 xG and one goal, with 49 touches in the opposition box resulting in not an awful lot.

They simply have to be better than that, but equally as worrying was the fact that the Grigiorossi needed only five touches in the Milan area to convert two and win the game.

Lecce ought to be licking their lips ahead of this one. Sure, they’ll have to absorb a lot of pressure, but this isn’t Sacchi’s Milan rocking up in Puglia by any stretch of the imagination.

If Di Francesco can make his side solid and set up the right traps, they should get some successes.

To that end, I can see Lecce taking something away from the game. And with Milan looking pretty poor at the back while also carrying a natural ability to pull a goal out of the bag, I’m happy to take the 4/1 at an implied 20% probability that they’ll play out a score draw.

Lecce To Win Either Half @ 15/8

The 15/8 here looks generous to me. The 34.8% implied chance of Lecce winning a half is low considering Milan’s issues from last season which seemed to have clearly been carried over through the summer on Saturday night’s evidence.

As recently as this March, the Salentini led at the break in an eventual 3-2 defeat to Milan at the Via del Mare.

Indeed, in seven of the last 10 home fixtures against the Rossoneri they have won at least one of the halves, including four of the last five and each of the three clashes there since the beginning of 2023.

This is a pick I simply can’t turn down.