League 1 Relegation Odds: Shrewsbury and Crawley look to be in trouble

The new League 1 season begins in just over a week and while there are clubs hoping for a big year in the third tier, there are those who will be aiming to stay in the division.

With four teams getting relegated each year from League 1, there is a wide net to get trapped in. It can be ruthless, as clubs that have that have enjoyed a comfortable campaign in the season prior are no strangers to falling through the trap door the following year.  Below I take a look at the most likely candidates to drop from the 2024/25 roster.

League 1 Odds

Crawley Town @ 4/6

Crawley Town were one of the biggest stories from the EFL last year as they defied the odds having been tipped for relegation, to achieving promotion from League Two via the play-offs.

That day in May at Wembley Stadium against Crewe Alexandra was a joyous one in the club's history and fans were rightly excited to be moving up a division. However, a lot of that excitement has evaporated with events that have transpired since.

Three of Crawley's key players have been sold this summer, which has immediately set the club a few steps back in the third tier before a ball has even been kicked. Their top scorer last term, Danilo Orsi, has joined League 1 rivals Burton Albion, who themselves will be looking to avoid the drop this year after surviving by just two points in 2023/24.

Goalkeeper Corey Addai joined fellow promoted side Stockport County, while star midfielder Liam Kelly has returned to League 2 to join MK Dons, the side Crawley defeated in the play-off semi-finals. His midfield partner Klaidi Lolos has joined promotion-chasing Bolton in League 1, and all of them reportedly left for pittance.

A difficult task for Crawley has been made even harder, and I think they look increasingly likely to finish the season dead last.

Shrewsbury Town @ 5/4

It wasn't that long ago that Shrewsbury were competing at the top end of League 1, as they pushed for automatic promotion in 2017/18. That team was led by Paul Hurst, as is their current crop.

The difference being the financial landscape of the league has changed drastically since then and all of a sudden their brief is to ensure they stay in the division. Their end-of-season form in 2023/24 was concerning and luckily for them they managed to stay up by four points. They were fortunate that there were teams worse than them, but this time I'm not so sure they will be so fortunate.

As we sit just over a week away from the new campaign, the Shrews have just 16 senior players on the books, which, if it doesn't increase, they are going to pray that all those players can stay healthy throughout the gruelling nine-month campaign.

They do have John Marquis, a striker whose name used to command respect at this level, but it appears as though his best days are long gone, and I don't think he will be too much help in their survival bid.

Football Odds

Cambridge United @ 6/4

Like Shrewsbury, Cambridge were quite fortunate that there were teams worse than them to fall through the trap door, and question marks remain whether they will be any better off this term. Garry Monk returned from a three-year hiatus from management to take over at The Abbey Stadium in March, and his stock has plummeted in recent years.

He was once one of the most promising young coaches on the scene for his work in the Premier League with Swansea City, but then spells followed at Leeds United, Middlesbrough and Birmingham City, in which his conduct, specifically involving his agent came into question.

Monk then had a forgettable period with Sheffield Wednesday and so he's back in the game trying to prove that he still has much to offer as a manager. He has a tough task ahead of him because he could only muster two wins from the 11 games he oversaw at the back end of the previous campaign.

He has been looking to put a stamp on his squad over the summer, reuniting with midfielder Gary Gardner from his Birmingham days, as well as bringing in fellow midfielder Korey Smith and Shayne Lavery.

Two of them are ageing stars and it is clear that they are brought in for an immediate impact, but it remains to be seen if they can be used effectively in Monk's system. There is a part of me that can see the new squad adjusting and leading to a slight improvement for Cambridge's league position, but Monk's most recent club jobs have ended on a sour note and it is hard to see that suddenly stopping now.

Northampton Town @ 13/8

Following their promotion from League 2 in 2022/23, Northampton Town were expected to struggle in the third tier last year, but instead they attained a comfortable mid-table finish. Things look to be much more difficult for Jon Brady's side as they have lost several key men in Louie Moulden, Sam Sherring, Shaun McWilliams, Marc Leonard, Kieron Bowie and Louis Appere.

Leonard in particular, the dazzling playmaker who won the affection of the Cobblers' faithful, will be a huge loss this year. However, Brady has shown us already that he can defy the odds, and that is a testament to the culture he has built at Sixfields over the last three years.

Having Leonard around the place the last two years certainly helped his cause, and he will be a tough man to replace in the middle of the park, which is why there is a lot of concern surrounding the Cobblers heading into the new season. A lot will be asked of those still around to step up to the plate with a lot of last year's star performers moving on.

Brady's way of coaching has me thinking it can pay off, but I also think that it can go horribly wrong because so much will have changed in such a short space of time. It does seem like Northampton have a big task ahead of them, and right now I can see them dropping back into League 2.

 Other teams that I think could be at risk of relegation this year include Burton (5/2), who look to be going through a transformation this summer. However, their recruitment drive has showed promise and could indicate that they are about to show signs of promise, but only time will tell.

Then there is Exeter City (5/2), the Devon-based club who continue to keep up with their rivals in this financial climate. The money game has exploded massively this year with the arrival of Birmingham, which could force the hand of a few others. Could the Grecians get left behind?

Nigel Clough's Mansfield Town (11/4) will be expected to struggle this year after their promotion from League 2. On paper, there is a chance that they will spend the year fighting for survival, but after they were able to compete so well with two strong teams in Stockport and Wrexham last season, it gives me food for though as to whether they will be in as much trouble as many expect. Then when you throw in Clough's extensive experience at this level, the Stags might just do okay.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 50% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.