Lazio vs Roma Prediction: Another dull Derby della Capitale?

It's Derby della Capitale time in Serie A on Sunday (11:30 BST, DAZN), as Rome rivals Lazio and AS Roma clash at the Stadio Olimpico. Both clubs have made indifferent starts to the season, but it's I Giallorossi who head into this fixture with a three-point lead after just three games.

Below are my Lazio vs Roma predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Samuel Gigot (back), Manuel Lazzari (calf), Matias Vecino (thigh) and Patric (ankle) are all ruled out of Sunday's game for Lazio, who are also sweating on the fitness of talismanic duo Nicolo Rovella (unspecified) and Taty Castellanos (adductor), who were substituted in the 41st and 60th minute, respectively, of last weekend's 1-0 loss at Sassuolo.

Danilo Cataldi, Reda Belahyne and Boulaye Dia are among those in line for promotions to Maurizio Sarri's starting XI.

Football Odds

Roma are without injury-prone forwards Paulo Dybala (muscle) and Leon Bailey (thigh), while Mario Hermoso (calf) and Wesley Franca (illness) are considered doubtful.

Devyne Rensch is the most likely replacement for Wesley if the Brazilian hasn't recovered in time, while Zeki Celik could come in for Hermoso.

Today's Football Fixtures

Lazio vs Roma Odds

There's little to separate the sides in the match result market, with Lazio, who haven't won any of the last three derbies, 15/8 to claim all three points on Sunday, implying a 34.8% probability of success, and Roma 13/8 (38.1%). The draw, which has landed in two of the last five head-to-heads, is priced at 21/10.

At least one team has failed to score in seven of the last eight meetings, and BTTS-No can be backed at 10/11 this weekend.

Castellanos (2/1) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Roma's on-loan Brighton striker Evan Ferguson (21/10).

Total Goals - Under 1.5 @ 7/4

The Derby della Capitale has seen under 2.5 goals land on the last seven occasions, and in the first five of those, the scoreline was either 0-0 or 1-0.

Neither have been in great goalscoring form so far this term, with Lazio blanking in defeats to Como (2-0) and Sassuolo (1-0), either side of a 4-0 victory over Hellas Verona.

Roma, meanwhile, only edged past Bologna and Pisa 1-0 thanks to second-half winners from Wesley and Matias Soule, respectively, before suffering a 1-0 defeat to Torino last time out.

So, Lazio have failed to score in two of their three games, but have kept a clean sheet in their only one at home, while Roma have recorded two shutouts, but scored just twice across their three contests.

Considering the above, I'm finding it hard not to back a low-scoring derby on Sunday, with under 1.5 goals taking my fancy at 7/4.

Player to Receive a Card - Evan Ndicka (ROM) @ 11/4

Roma defender Evan Ndicka was only booked twice in 38 Serie A appearances last season, a third of his 2023/24 tally (in just 25 games), but one of his two yellows came against Lazio, in January's 2-0 win, for remonstrating with the referee.

The 26-year-old was also carded in a goalless draw in November 2023, meaning he has been cautioned in half of his four appearances against I Biancocelesti.

Ndicka usually plays on the left-hand side of a back three for Roma, which means he's likely to be in close proximity on Sunday to Lazio right-winger Matteo Cancellieri, who has been fouled eight times across three matches this season.

Sassuolo left-back Josh Doig was booked last weekend for a foul on the Italian, who averaged 1.5 fouls won per game in Serie A last season, despite eight of his 27 appearances coming from the bench.

Cancellieri could cause a few headaches at the Olimpico for Ndicka, who committed two fouls in last Sunday's loss to Torino.

Offers

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