Lazio vs Napoli Prediction: Great Scott to fire at 7/2 in tight encounter

Napoli need to arrest the little bump in the road that has been their recent form, but next up in Serie A they travel to the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday to take on a Lazio side sitting in fourth and aiming to bolster their Champions League push (18:00 local, 17:00 GMT).

The league leaders have drawn back-to-back games and only remain at the summit because of Inter Milan’s simultaneous stumbles. So my Lazio vs Napoli predictions, along with full team news and match odds, will consider whether the Partenopei get back to winning ways.

Team News

Marco Baroni’s Lazio will be sweating on the fitness of Boulaye Dia, who suffered an ankle sprain in the 5-1 win over Monza last Sunday.

Elsewhere, Elseid Hysaj (hamstring) misses out against his former club, with Patric and Matias Vecino also unavailable with ankle and thigh issues respectively.

With Pedro having come off the bench to score twice against Monza, the former Barcelona star could be returned to the starting lineup, with Fisayo Dele-Bashiru another option in attacking midfield.

Napoli cannot call upon David Neres, who has done well since the departure of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Paris Saint-Germain. The attacker picked up a hamstring problem in the draw with Udinese on Sunday.

He joins Mathias Olivera (calf) and Leonardo Spinazzola (thigh) on the treatment list, but Giacomo Raspadori is back in contention for a first start in six months having struggled for game time in Antonio Conte’s squad.

Lazio vs Napoli Odds

This is an incredibly tough one to call, and that is borne out in the odds provided by Betfred, with Lazio slight favourites at 8/5 and Napoli a 9/5 chance for the three points.

That price for a home win implies a 38.5% chance of Lazio securing a key victory, while the 11/5 about a draw suggests a 31.3% probability of the spoils being shared.

You may want to look for greater value in the draw market though, with the two sides having combined for only 84 goals in the first 24 rounds this season as opposed to the 112 amassed by Inter and Atalanta, the two clubs sandwiched between Saturday’s contestants.

As such, the 0-0 correct score at 8/1 might be more up your alley, with Napoli’s sole goalless draw this season having come away to Juventus, Lazio’s nearest rivals for fourth spot heading into the weekend.

Draw and BTTS @ 16/5

I actually think there will be goals here, even if I can’t pick a winner.

Napoli’s last two matches have finished 1-1, while Lazio haven’t been involved in a single blank scoresheet this term, and the Biancocelesti have scored 11 goals in their last four games (won three, lost one).

The 2022/23 champions have lots of weapons available to them despite the loss of Kvaratskhelia, but I just don’t trust them to score big. Their 39 goals in 24 games this term say much about Napoli just doing enough rather than blowing teams away.

When they won that title two years ago they had both the best attack and the best defence, averaging over two goals scored per game, but right now it’s their back line doing all the heavy lifting.

Their 39 goals is the worst attacking record in the top six, and I can see them struggling to shake off Lazio in this one.

While the Roman side don’t draw many, two of their three ties this season have come in their last seven matches, so I think a draw with both sides netting looks a decent shout at 16/5 with its 23.8% implied probability.

Football Odds

Scott McTominay anytime goalscorer @ 7/2

There was a time when I would have plumped for Romelu Lukaku as an anytime goalscorer whatever the odds given his near-certainty as a finisher, but even as Napoli’s top scorer so far he has been underwhelming in front of goal.

That’s why I’m backing McTominay to make one of those practically-untraceable runs into the area to bag one for the Azzurri. He’s already done it seven times this season, leaving him within two of Lukaku in the charts, and with Lukaku at 21/10 in the same market it’s the Scot who carries the value.

What Manchester United could do with a threat like McTominay right now, eh?

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