Lazio vs Genoa Prediction: Sarri’s side to exact revenge in Coppa Italia

Lazio make their entrance into the 2023/24 Coppa Italia on Tuesday evening (20:00), as the seven-time winners host fellow Serie A side Genoa at the Stadio Olimpico.

The two clubs have already met this season in Rome, back in August when a 16th-minute Mateo Retegui goal was enough for Genoa to claim all three points in the league.

The away side have already played twice in the cup so far, beating Modena 4-3 on August 11 before Reggiana took them to extra-time at the start of last month.

Team News

Maurizio Sarri has never been one to shy away from changes in cup competitions, so expect some rotation on Tuesday. Taty Castellanos, Felipe Anderson, Daichi Kamada, Matias Vecino and Danilo Cataldi were all used off the bench on Saturday, and the quintet are all likely starters in midweek.

On-loan Milan forward Junior Messias and Italy international Retegui returned to the starting XI on Saturday after their respective injuries, and both will hope to keep their places in Rome. Ruslan Malinovskyi will serve a suspension for Genoa's trip to Monza on the weekend, so the Ukraine midfielder is likely to begin the game against Sarri's side.

Match Odds

Lazio are 8/11 to win Tuesday's game in 90 minutes, with Genoa priced at 10/3 to win and progress into the next round. The draw, which would send the game into extra-time, is available at 12/5.

Meanwhile, both teams to score can be found at 10/11 while over 2.5 goals is EVS.

Taty Castellanos to score anytime @ 7/4

The Argentine striker has had a tough time of it since making the move to Italy in the summer. Castellanos has scored just once in 12 appearances for I Biancocelesti, and five goals in seven games for the talismanic figure of Ciro Immobile further dents the 25-year-old's chances of establishing himself as Lazio's number one striker.

Castellanos should get the chance to impress in the cup, though, and a Cagliari defence - possibly a second-string one at that - which has kept just three clean sheets this season, ought to give him an opportunity to prove his worth in front of goal.

An impressive 2022/23 campaign on loan at Spanish side Girona saw Castellanos score once in the cup and 13 times in La Liga, three of which came against Barcelona, so goals are certainly in there somewhere.

Lazio to win and under 3.5 goals @ 13/10

Remarkably, Lazio's only home defeat of the season came against Genoa, while that is Il Grifone's solitary away win in seven attempts this term. Was August's result a one-time thing, or are Genoa Lazio's kryptonite?

I'm choosing to go for the former, not least because these sides are likely to make changes, and Lazio's second-string should be much superior to Genoa's.

Goals may be lacking in this one, though - only one of Lazio's 10 games at the Stadio Olimpico have seen more than two goals, while six of Genoa's seven away matches in Serie A have had fewer than 3.5 goals.

It should be another tight encounter on Tuesday, with Lazio just edging it to record a third consecutive victory.