Lazio vs Como Prediction: 5/1 tip for Biancocelesti to bounce back from derby defeat

Lazio get the chance to bounce back from their derby defeat to Roma when they host Como at the Stadio Olimpico on Friday (20:45 local, 19:45 GMT).

The Biancocelesti remain in the top four, but have Juventus and Fiorentina breathing down their necks as an improving Como rock up to the capital. Here are my Lazio vs Como predictions, along with full preview and match odds.

Team News

There was a heavy cost to count after Lazio lost the Derby della Capitale last weekend, with not just three points lost but three players as well.

Mario Gila’s booking for a foul on Paulo Dybala took him beyond the suspension threshold, and Mattia Zaccagni soon followed him to earn a ban of his own.

It got worse for head coach Marco Baroni when Taty Castellanos was sent off deep into stoppage time for his part in a petulant tete-a-tete with Roma’s Mats Hummels.

Baroni is also without Matias Vecino due to a long-term thigh issue, leaving him scrambling for senior cover. He made half-time changes against the Giallorossi, bringing off Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Gustav Isaksen to spark a more positive second half, so substitutes Loum Tchaouna and Boulaye Dia could be among those to step up.

Como boss Cesc Fabregas has to name a side shorn of Sergi Roberto and Maximo Perrone due to muscle injuries, while Edoardo Goldaniga is another name missing out due to an accumulation of bookings.

Lazio vs Como Odds

Given that this is a clash pitting fourth against 16th, there’s little surprise that Lazio are big favourites. They’re 8/11 to pick up the three points, at an implied probability of 57.9%, which exactly matches their win percentage in Serie A this season so far.

Como are a 7/2 shot, with that 22.2% also being a mirror image of their form in the league, while the draw is 5/2.

The handicap betting might be more inviting if you fancy Como to get something since they have won or drawn 10 of their 18 matches this term. They are 1/1 to win with a one-goal start.

Lazio to win, Lazio most corners & Isaksen 1+ shots on target @ 5/1 (boosted from 4/1)

Betfred are offering a price boost here and it looks very appealing. I have Lazio to win this one, and by extension I can see them asking more questions in an attacking sense so the corners market is a natural addition.

Isaksen was hauled off at half-time in the derby last week, and has only two goals, two assists and nine shots on target to his name in 19 games in the league, but he’s not afraid to get shots off.

Those numbers also don’t cover the fact he has been given the full 90 minutes just once all season, so his shots ratio comes in at 0.82 per 90.

That might still be on the light side as we search for value, but given the greater certainty around the other two legs of the bet, combined with the level of opposition and home advantage, I can see Isaksen giving the keeper some work and making this 5/1 shot a potential winner.

Football Odds

Lazio -1 @ 11/5

Como have looked better of late, beating both Roma and Lecce 2-0 either side of a defeat by the same score against Inter. But Lazio are a different animal to both of those teams, even allowing for the fact they lost to their rivals last time out.

There’s great quality in this Biancocelesti squad, they make plenty of chances, sort a fair amount of goals – their 33 so far is more than league leaders Napoli – and they could easily have pegged back the 2-0 deficit in the derby given the flow of the second half after Baroni made changes.

I think they use this game to make a statement following last week’s disappointment, and that means winning by more than one goal. Nine of their 17 wins in all competitions thus far have come with at least a two-goal buffer, so the 11/5 odds implying a 31.3% chance are very generous set against those factors.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.