Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction: Sparks to fly between sides for second time in five days

AC Milan lost their opening Serie A game of the season 2-1 at home to Cremonese on August 23, but I Rossoneri are unbeaten in 13 matches since (W9, D4). Their latest victory came last Saturday in the league against Lazio (1-0), who they face again on Thursday (20:00 GMT, Premier Sports 1), this time in the Coppa Italia round of 16.

Below are my Lazio vs AC Milan predictions, supported by all the latest team news, as the two teams move from Milan’s San Siro to Lazio’s Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

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Team News

Lazio are likely to be without Samuel Gigot (ankle), Nico Rovella (groin), Danilo Cataldi (unspecified) and Matteo Cancellieri (muscle), who are all still nursing injuries.

Football Odds

As for Milan, Zachary Athekame (muscle), Christian Pulisic (thigh) and Santiago Gimenez (ankle) look set to miss out again.

Max Allegri could hand starts to the likes of Koni De Winter, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Samuele Ricci.

Lazio vs AC Milan Odds

Lazio are 12/5 to exact instant revenge on Milan, implying a 29.4% probability of success in regulation time on Thursday, while Milan are 23/20, or a 46.5% chance, to get the job done inside 90 minutes. The draw, which would send the tie straight to a penalty shootout, is priced at 21/10.

Booking Points Over/Under +52.5 - Over 52.5 @ 5/6

All four meetings between Lazio and Milan since the start of last year have finished with over 52.5 booking points, starting with the 155 recorded in I Rossoneri’s 1-0 win at the Olimpico in March 2024.

Later in the year, in August, the two teams shared four goals in a 2-2 draw, but there were even more yellow cards (six) produced, totalling 60 booking points in Rome.

The first meeting of 2025, Lazio’s 2-1 win at San Siro in March, saw 55 booking points awarded, and last Saturday’s game went slightly higher with 60.

Today's Football Fixtures

Both sides have several tricky players, notably Mattia Zaccagni, averaging four fouls won per game in Serie A this season, for Lazio, and Rafael Leao, averaging 1.9 fouls won per game in the same competition, for Milan.

Whether both, or either, start on Thursday, remains to be seen, but there are other players who can be tricky customers for defenders, and there seems to be bad blood between the two teams, so backing over 52.5 booking points at just under EVS could be a decent bet.

Bet Builder - Koni De Winter (MIL) & Matteo Guendouzi (LAZ) Shown Any Card @ 5/1

Belgian defender De Winter, a summer signing from fellow Serie A side Genoa, hasn’t come off the bench in either of Milan’s last two matches, but with some rotation expected on Thursday, he could earn a start against Lazio.

The 23-year-old is a possible replacement for Fikayo Tomori on the right-hand side of Milan’s three-man back line, which could mean he is tasked with marking Zaccagni, who was fouled three times at San Siro last weekend, with Tomori booked for upending the Italian in the 26th minute.

De Winter is yet to be booked in eight appearances for Milan, but only half of those have been starts. In those four starts, he has committed a combined 10 fouls, including two in Milan’s 3-0 Coppa Italia victory over Lecce on September 23.

The Belgium international was a regular in the referee’s notebook for his previous club, receiving eight yellows and one red in 29 Serie A appearances during the 2023/24 campaign, before being cautioned six times in 25 league games last season, and picking up a yellow in his only Coppa Italia outing.

De Winter was booked in his last appearance against Lazio, fouling Zaccagni in the 78th minute before earning a yellow a minute later for an offence against Valentin Castellanos.

I’m also adding in a card for Lazio midfielder Matteo Guendouzi, who appears the most likely of their midfield three to get the nod again in the engine room on Thursday.

The 26-year-old was cautioned nine times for his club last season, seven times in Serie A, once in the Coppa Italia, and once in the Uefa Europa League.

Guendouzi is already on four yellows and one red in 11 Serie A games this term, with his most recent booking coming in Lazio’s last home match, a 2-0 victory over Lecce on November 23.

While he kept things fairly clean last Saturday, fouling an opponent just once and finishing the game without a card, his Olimpico record against Milan reads as two games, one yellow, one red.

He’s likely to be in the thick of the action again on Thursday, making him another likely candidate to go into the book.