Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction: Los Blancos to prevail

Real Madrid host Villarreal at Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday (20:00 BST) in La Liga, with Los Blancos looking to respond to last week's heavy defeat against cross-city rivals Atletico Madrid.

Check out my Real Madrid vs Villarreal predictions below, alongside the latest team news and match odds.

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Real Madrid have won eight of their nine matches so far this season. However, they may still feel like they owe their supporters a performance against Villarreal on Saturday, after being humiliated in the derby by Atlético last weekend. Los Blancos lost that game 5-2 in the first major setback of the Xabi Alonso era.

The 43-year-old had only suffered one defeat in the role until that point, a 4-0 semi-final loss against PSG in the Club World Cup. He was always keen to play down the significance of that result, all but branding it a consequence of the team’s struggles before his appointment.

However, the Madrid derby defeat was certainly his to own. Alonso has now had a few months to work with this squad and implement his ideas. That process has mostly been a success, with a clearer playing style developing, and the likes of Álvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen and Arda Güler impressing.

Carreras and Huijsen did both struggle against a physical Atleti side last weekend, though. The decision to start Jude Bellingham, who had only clocked up 22 minutes of competitive football prior to the derby, was also widely criticised.

The Englishman dropped back to the bench as Real Madrid returned to action in Kazakhstan on Tuesday. There was an instant response to their collapse at the Estado Metropolitano, with Kylian Mbappé outstanding yet again in a 5-0 victory over Kairat.

This is likely to be a much tougher test against a competitive Villarreal side, and it is a meeting of the teams currently ranked second and third in La Liga.

These clubs have served up plenty of entertainment in recent years. They played out a thrilling 4-4 draw at the Estadi de la Ceràmica in 2024, while the Yellow Submarine’s last victory over Los Blancos came via a 3-2 margin at the Santiago Bernabéu in 2023.

They have tightened up defensively since those two games. Marcelino’s favoured approach has always been to use a compact 4-4-2 system, with an emphasis on counter-attacking football. Nearly two years into his second spell at the club, the Villarreal boss may feel like he finally has a squad capable of playing that way.

Having received €105m and spent €102m, their summer was a busy one, with the Valencian club aiming to sell high and recruit smartly. While the creativity of Álex Baena, who moved to Atleti, was always going to be difficult to replace, there is now a more balanced feel to the squad.

They’ve aggressively targeted defensive improvements, with Rafa Marín, Santiago Mouriño and Renato Veiga all arriving and settling straight into the team. A record of just five goals conceded in seven matches, the joint-best in La Liga, would certainly suggest they’re now much stronger in that department.

Villarreal were also in Champions League action in midweek. They drew 2-2 at home against Juventus in a competitive affair that they led early on thanks to a strike from their record signing Georges Mikautadze. The Italians came back to score two quick-fire goals after the break, but Marcelino’s side snatched what may prove an important point, with Veiga heading home a 90th-minute leveller.

Team News:

Real Madrid are missing four players to injury this weekend, and they are all defenders. The absence of both Dani Carvajal and Trent Alexander-Arnold creates a problem on the right side of the backline, and may see Fede Valverde used as either a full-back or wing-back in this game. Antonio Rüdiger and Ferland Mendy also miss out.

Some further rotation following the long trip to Kazakhstan is expected. Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga both stand a good chance of starting in midfield, while Carreras should be recalled.

Villarreal are also having to manage a number of defensive selection issues currently. Logan Costa and Willy Kambwala are both out long-term, while Juan Foyth is an additional injury absentee. With Pau Navarro currently on Spain duty at the Under-20 World Cup, Marcelino has little choice but to name the same back four again, with the exception of the return of Sergi Cardona at left-back.

Arnau Tenas was a surprise starter in goal against Juventus, but he didn’t have a great night, and Luiz Júnior may be recalled between the sticks at the Bernabéu. Forwards Ayoze Pérez and Gerard Moreno are also rated doubtful for the visitors, so Mikautadze and Nicolas Pépé may continue up top.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds

Real Madrid are the 4/9 favourites to build on their midweek success with three more points in La Liga. You can back the Draw at 4/1, while Villarreal are priced at 11/2 to win the game.

If you’re expecting goals, you can back Both teams to score at 4/7. Over 3.5 goals is priced at 1/1, while you can back the hosts to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 11/10.

Villarreal are priced at 2/1 to win either half in the Spanish capital. You can also back them to score in both halves at long odds of 4/1 against a Real Madrid defence that conceded two or more goals in each half of their last league fixture.

However, punters should be aware that Alonso’s side had only let in three goals in their six La Liga outings before the derby. If you fancy them to tighten up again this time out, you can back Real Madrid to win to nil at 15/8.

In the Goalscorer markets, Mbappé is the clear favourite at 5/2 to score first, and 8/13 to score anytime. Alternative options to score anytime include Vinícius at 6/5, Bellingham at 7/4, and Mikautadze at 2/1.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 13/8

Overall, Villarreal look to have an improved squad this term, and they have already established themselves as the clear favourites for fourth place. However, they are dealing with a number of injuries, which leaves them very short on rotation options in defence and attack. That’s far from ideal heading into such a tough game, only three days on from a difficult Champions League fixture.

The Yellow Submarine are likely to operate cautiously and look to play on the break, as we’ve seen in their recent road games against Tottenham and Atlético. They lost both of those fixtures to nil, but allowed a total of just 1.54 xG across the two games, which were their toughest away days of the campaign to date.

They look organised enough to at least be competitive here, but they may struggle to keep it tight for 90 minutes. I’m backing Real Madrid to win and Under 3.5 goals at 13/8.

Bet 2 - Kylian Mbappé to score anytime & Most corners - Real Madrid @ 23/20

It’s hard to bet against Mbappé right now. The Frenchman is in electric form with his Champions League hat-trick on Tuesday taking his season tally to 15 goals in 11 matches for club and country. He has scored at least once in each of his last eight appearances.

Real Madrid’s likely territorial dominance should also see them come out on top in terms of the corner count. The hosts are averaging 5.33 corners for and only 2.67 against at the Bernabéu in La Liga. Meanwhile, Villarreal have won just 3.67 corners per game on the road in the Spanish top flight, allowing 4.00.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Kylian Mbappé to score anytime and Most corners - Real Madrid at 23/20.