Real Madrid vs Valencia Prediction: Back Jude to score again this weekend

The next week of La Liga action is already upon us and our Friday night game comes from Getafe on the outskirts of Madrid, where they face a club on the outskirts of Barcelona in Girona. Premier Sports 1 from 20:00 for UK fans looking for the match on their TV.

Our La Liga Betting expert Mark Sochon is once more looking deep at the stats for this one and has two Prop Bets for your consideration. He previews the action and takes us through his thinking with his Getafe vs Girona Predictions...

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

Match Preview:

One week on from El Clásico, Real Madrid are back at the Santiago Bernabéu. Struggling Valencia provide the opposition in La Liga this time around. 

While Los Blancos went into their showdown with Barcelona top of the table and with a two-point advantage, it was still Xabi Alonso's side that had the bigger point to prove. Having struggled consistently in the big games over the past 12 matches, and having lost four Clásicos last season, Real Madrid needed both a positive performance and a positive result. 

They got both, with the home team comfortably the better side across the 90 minutes. A number of tight decisions and a Kylian Mbappé penalty miss prevented Real Madrid from winning by a wider margin than 2-1. 

While Barcelona's considerable injury issues were a factor, Alonso still deserves credit for getting his tactics and team selection right on this occasion. He was widely criticised on that front after a 5-2 Madrid derby defeat in September. However, it's now 12 wins from 13 competitive games this term for Los Blancos, with a statement Clásico success by far the most significant of those victories. 

The only sour note from a Madrid perspective last weekend was Vinícius Júnior's petulant reaction to being substituted. He was caught mouthing the words "it's better if I leave" as he walked past Alonso and straight down the tunnel. The Brazilian has since issued an apology, although it was one that referenced his teammates, the club, the president, and the supporters, but notably not his coach. 

Uncertainty surrounding Vinícius' future will rumble on until he's either sold or puts pen to paper on a new deal, with his present contract only running until the summer of 2027. 

There are far more pressing matters for Valencia to worry about. They've gone five matches without a win in La Liga to drop into the relegation zone. Their latest setback came in the form of a 2-0 derby defeat to Villarreal last weekend at Mestalla. 

While he did an excellent job after taking charge with Los Che also in relegation trouble last season, Carlos Corberán is now himself starting to feel the heat. The ex-West Brom boss has overseen a number of unconvincing performances this season, and there are issues that need addressing across the pitch. 

At the back, they've been weakened by the summer departures of Giorgi Mamardashvili and Cristhian Mosquera. A 6-0 defeat at Barcelona in September highlighted many of those flaws, while even long-serving left-back and captain José Gayà has come in for criticism from the club's fans in recent weeks. 

Their midfield play has also suffered. The form of their talented youngster Javi Guerra has dipped, with wingers Diego López and Luis Rioja providing most of their creative threat. 

Valencia head into this game following a 5-0 Copa del Rey victory over minnows UD Maracena in midweek, but that has done little to lift the dark clouds that have fallen over this club again in recent weeks. 

Team News: 

Dani Carvajal has suffered a fresh injury setback for Real Madrid, which will keep the right-back out until the new year. That should serve up an opportunity for the fit-again Trent Alexander-Arnold to get a run of games, although Fede Valverde may again be preferred in the role this weekend. Antonio Rüdiger also misses out once more, while David Alaba is a major doubt. 

Alonso could opt for a slightly more adventurous system this weekend, with Franco Mastantuono or Brahim Díaz potentially coming in on the right flank. The Madrid boss must also weigh up the pros and cons of starting Vinícius again, versus punishing the 25-year-old for his latest indiscretion by dropping him to the bench. 

As for Valencia, their defensive problems are compounded by injuries to Mouctar Diakhaby and Dimitri Foulquier. Winger Largie Ramazani is also sidelined.  

Corberán may consider switching to a back five for this fixture, with Eray Cömert the most likely option to bolster the defence. Baptiste Santamaria and Hugo Duro are also pushing for recalls, after both only made the bench against Villarreal. 

Match Odds:

Real Madrid are priced at 1/6 to win this game, while you can back the Draw at 13/2. Valencia, who were surprise winners in this fixture last season, can be backed at 14/1. That unexpected success at the Bernabéu is just one of two away games they've won in La Liga since the start of last season. 

If you're expecting Real Madrid to take revenge on Saturday, the hosts are priced at 11/10 to win both halves. You can also back Los Blancos to score over 3.5 goals at 13/8, while a home win to nil is available at 10/11. 

Alternatively, you can back Valencia to win either half at 9/2. The visitors are priced at 5/6 to score at some point in the match, and 9/2 to score over 1.5 goals. 

Mbappé moved onto 16 Real Madrid goals already this term with his early strike in El Clásico. He's the 15/8 favourite to score first on Saturday night, while the Frenchman is priced at 2/5 to score anytime. 

You can back Vinícius to bounce back with a goal at 9/10, while Arnaut Danjuma may offer the main goal threat for the visitors. He's priced at 18/5 to score anytime. 

You can bet on this match via our Real Madrid vs Valencia Odds page on the main betfred.com website, with all the latest prices and full betting markets.

Bet 1 - Jude Bellingham to score anytime @ 7/5 

Last season, there was a sense that Mbappé's arrival was not necessarily good news for Jude Bellingham. However, Alonso clearly believes he can get the best out of both. He's spoken of the need for the Englishman to stop trying to cover the whole pitch, and instead focus on operating in the areas where he can do the most damage. 

With the 22-year-old finally back to full fitness, we've seen clear evidence of that in the last two games. Bellingham is spending more time in and around the penalty area, and he scored against both Juventus and Barcelona. Across those two games, he had eight shots and registered 2.2 xG. 

Against weaker opposition this weekend, Bellingham looks to offer value at 7/5 to score anytime. 

Bet 2 - 1st Half - Real Madrid & Over 17.5 Real Madrid shots @ 20/21 

It's hard to make any case for Valencia in this game. They're looking very low on confidence and are now a weaker team than they were when they won on this ground in April. Fran González, Fran García and Lucas Vázquez were among the Real Madrid starters that day, during the bleak final days of Carlo Ancelotti's second spell at the club. 

While there are still areas for improvement, Los Blancos look to be heading in the right direction under Alonso. They've had a rare free midweek, and will be hungry to use last weekend's win as a launchpad for their pursuit of domestic and European honours. That should help them make a fast start to this game. 

55% of Madrid's home league goals this season have come in the first half, while only 40% of their goals conceded have come before the break. Meanwhile, they've had at least 22 shots in all of their last four matches in all competitions. 

I'm expecting those trends to continue here, and I'm using the Bet Builder to back First half - Real Madrid & Over 17.5 Real Madrid shots at 20/21. 

Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

• Points Staked: 71
• Points Returned: 70.11
• P/L: -0.89

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...