Real Madrid vs Getafe Prediction: Vinicius to star for Los Blancos

Real Madrid welcome Getafe to the Santiago Bernabeu on Monday night (20:00 GMT, live on Premier Sports 1), hoping to get back to winning ways in Spain's top-flight.

Read on for our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon's Real Madrid vs Getafe predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Real Madrid face a rare Monday night game this week in La Liga. Local rivals Getafe provide the opposition at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Los Blancos have now played 11 games under Alvaro Arbeloa, since the decision was made to part company with Xabi Alonso following the Spanish Super Cup final defeat to Barcelona. It’s eight wins and three defeats so far for the new man in all competitions, although he does still boast a 100% record at home.

The biggest positive from Arbeloa’s reign to date has been the improved form of Vinicius Junior. His difficult relationship with the previous boss was well documented, but he looks at home in the current 4-4-2 system, with the Brazilian scoring six times in his last five appearances.

It’d be a stretch to say that Real Madrid have made any more meaningful strides forward since the change. They were really unconvincing in midweek, scraping past Benfica 2-1 at home to set up a round-of-16 tie against Manchester City in the Champions League. It was the Portuguese side who had the better chances in that game, winning the xG count by a margin of 1.64-1.11.

Los Blancos were missing Kylian Mbappe in midweek, and they could really do with more players stepping up with the Frenchman’s lingering knee problem a growing concern. Aside from the regular front two, no Real Madrid player has scored more than four goals in La Liga this term, while only three others have netted more than twice.

That will offer encouragement to an organised Getafe side that looks sure to set up with a back five and defend in numbers. They’re anything but a great watch from a neutral perspective, but Pepe Bordalas has perfected the art of keeping his team in the Spanish top flight on a low budget.

There were doubts about whether even he’d be able to repeat that trick this season, given the desperate lack of attacking options in the first half of the campaign. With their main striker Borja Mayoral struggling with fitness issues, there were many games where they barely threatened and an average of 0.8 goals per 90 minutes remains the second-worst record in the division.

However, they finally made steps to rectify their glaring attacking issues by signing strikers Martin Satriano and Luis Vazquez in January. Those two were thrown straight into the team and have formed an effective partnership. They were instrumental as Getafe claimed back-to-back victories over Alaves and Villarreal in February.

Despite a 1-0 home defeat against Sevilla last time out, the picture is now brighter for Los Azulones. They remain relatively solid at the back, and are capable of asking a few questions from set-piece situations, thanks to the excellent deliveries of Luis Milla. Only Lamine Yamal can better his tally of eight assists in La Liga this season.

Team News

Mbappe is set for a spell on the sidelines as he looks to shake off his knee problem. He won’t be risked here, while Real Madrid are also missing Jude Bellingham, Eder Militao, Raul Asencio and Dani Ceballos through injury.

Rodrygo is fit again and should feature, although youngster Gonzalo García may be preferred as Vinicius’ strike partner from the start. In defence, much will depend on whether Dean Huijsen can recover from a calf problem, with David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger the alternative options at centre-back.

As for Getafe, they’ll have to cope without Djene Dakonam. Their defensive regular was sent off after only 26 minutes in the 1-0 defeat to Sevilla last weekend, and is suspended as a result.

Centre-back Abdel Abqar is an additional injury doubt, so two changes are likely from Bordalas, who has settled on a consistent line-up in recent weeks. Mayoral and Juanmi are also fitness concerns heading into this game, which may limit the visiting coach’s options off the bench. Youngsters Abu Kamara and Davinichi will definitely miss out once more.

Real Madrid vs Getafe Odds

While meetings are normally tight, Real Madrid have won their last eight matches against their neighbours. You can back Los Blancos to triumph again at 3/10 here, while the Draw is priced at 4/1. Getafe are available at 9/1 to claim a shock win.

The hosts are priced at 9/10 to win the game to nil. Arbeloa’s side are also on offer at 21/20 to score in both halves, while they’re given a 6/4 chance of scoring over 2.5 goals.

You can back Getafe to get on the scoresheet at some stage in the game at odds of 1/1. The visitors are also available at 16/5 to win either half at the Bernabeu.

Vinicius should offer the main goal threat for the home team. He’s on offer at 11/4 to score first, and 9/10 to score anytime. You can also back Gonzalo to get on the scoresheet at odds of 21/20.

From a visiting perspective, Vazquez could be the danger man. He has scored twice in five outings in La Liga since making a loan move from Anderlecht. The 24-year-old is on offer at 11/1 to score first, and 4/1 to score anytime.

Bet Builder - Vinicius Junior 1+ shots on target & Under 3.5 goals @ 5/6

In the last 12 meetings between these clubs, only once has a game produced more than two goals in total. Getafe are normally very effective at making it difficult for their rivals, although rarely do they seriously threaten themselves. They’ve only managed to score one goal across their last seven visits to Real Madrid.

With no Mbappe, there’s every reason to expect that low-scoring trend to continue. The onus will fall on Vinicius to provide the attacking inspiration for the hosts, and he ought to be feeling confident having netted in five consecutive matches in all competitions. He should also be on penalty duty, given the absence of his regular strike partner.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Vinicius Junior 1+ shots on target and Under 3.5 goals at 5/6.

Domingos Duarte to be booked @ 11/5

Getafe tend to embrace their reputation as La Liga’s bad boys, and it’s not entirely undeserved. Bordalas’ side specialise in the dark arts of football, and they rank in the top three of the Spanish top-flight for cards again this season, with 61 yellows and four reds.

Only three players in the division have picked up more yellow cards than their centre-back Domingos Duarte. The combative 30-year-old never shies away from a challenge, and he has been booked in five of his last nine league appearances.

In a match which is sure to see Getafe spend much of the game in their own half doing defensive work, the chances of Duarte getting another yellow appear high. He looks to offer value at 11/5 to be booked at some stage.

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