Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction: Mbappe to open scoring

It hasn't been the season that Madridistas wanted but the team will look to go out on a high as they face Athletic Club in the final round of matches. All games in Spain's top flight start at 20:00 on Saturday evening.

Our Spanish Football expert previews the action and gives us his top two Real Madrid vs Athletic Club predictions plus all the team news, predicted line-ups and stats...

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Real Madrid round off the season with a home game against Athletic Club. This will be their final match under Álvaro Arbeloa's guidance, with José Mourinho set to take charge this summer. 

This will go down as another really poor campaign for Los Blancos. It has ended without a trophy, and with little sense that any of the core problems of the past two years have been fixed. 

Despite being likely to finish as La Liga's top scorer for the second year in a row, Kylian Mbappé's presence in this Real Madrid side continues to divide opinion. It's impossible to view the Mbappé project as a success, given the team's overall level has dropped considerably since his arrival in 2024. However, the extent to which the striker should be blamed for that is a much broader question, and one that doesn't have a definitive answer. 

Unless there are major departures over the next few months, Mourinho will face a similar challenge to his predecessors in terms of trying to unite a difficult dressing room, while searching for attacking balance on the pitch. 

The Portuguese coach will surely be watching on from somewhere as Real Madrid look to round off the season with a third straight victory. They've narrowly seen off Real Oviedo and Sevilla over the past fortnight, although hostility towards the players from their own supporters has continued. 

The mood should be a bit calmer this weekend, as Dani Carvajal plays his final game for the club. While he has fallen down the pecking order this term following a serious injury, the 34-year-old leaves as a genuine club legend. He is one of only five players in football history to have won six European Cups. 

Athletic Club will be hoping to ruin Carvajal's big day, but they have little reason to be any more motivated for this game than their opponents. 

Los Leones have also endured a miserable campaign. Having won the Copa del Rey in 2024, and qualified for the Champions League with 70 points last term, Athletic have never really got going this time around. A 1-1 draw last weekend against Celta Vigo ended their European hopes. If they lose at the Santiago Bernabéu, they'll likely finish only three points above the relegation zone. 

That marks comfortably the worst of Ernesto Valverde's 10 seasons in this job, which have been split across three different spells. The 62-year-old remains a popular figure in Bilbao, but this will be his final match, and the onus is on his successor Edin Terzić to bring fresh direction next term. 

Injuries have contributed to Athletic's poor campaign. Nico Williams' collapsed move to Barcelona last summer meant the Basque giants could count on the services of their star player for at least one more season. However, the 23-year-old has struggled to stay fit, and when he has played, his level has only occasionally been up to his usual high standards. 

The likes of Unai Simón, Oihan Sancet and Dani Vivian have also struggled, and Athletic head into this encounter having lost eight of their past 12 fixtures in all competitions. 

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Team News

Carvajal was always likely to start this game, but any doubts in the mind of Arbeloa have been removed given Trent Alexander-Arnold is unwell. 

The Englishman joins Éder Militão, Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy on the sidelines, while Aurélien Tchouaméni is an additional fitness doubt. Mbappé is expected to lead the line, but Vinícius Júnior may be rested for this final fixture. 

As for Athletic, they are missing Nico to injury once more, while Sancet and Beñat Prados are additional concerns. Those players are unlikely to be risked with little at stake at the Bernabéu. 

The visitors will also have to cope without the suspended Yuri Berchiche. That will create an opportunity for either Iñigo Lekue or Adama Boiro at left-back. 

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Odds

Real Madrid are priced at 4/9 to win this game. You can back the Draw at 18/5, while Athletic Club are available at 11/2 to close out the season with a surprise victory.  

If you're expecting the hosts to finish the campaign on the right note, Real Madrid -1 Handicap is priced at 6/5. You can also back Arbeloa's side to win to nil at 7/4, while they're available at 5/4 to score over 2.5 goals.  

Athletic are given a 5/2 chance of scoring over 1.5 goals. Los Leones are on offer at 2/1 to win either half in their final outing under Valverde.  

Mbappé is priced at 4/9 to score anytime. You can also back the striker to score two or more goals at 15/8. Jude Bellingham is priced at 5/2 to score anytime, while Carvajal is on offer at 9/1 to score in his final Real Madrid match.  

From a visiting perspective, Gorka Guruzeta should lead the line. The Athletic frontman is priced at 15/2 to score first, and 11/5 to score anytime. 

Bet 1 - Real Madrid to win & Under 4.5 goals @ 19/20 

With neither side competing for anything, this match will likely be played at a slow tempo, and warm conditions are expected as the summer heat starts to grip the Spanish capital. As unconvincing as Real Madrid have been this term, Athletic's demise has been even more dramatic. They've struggled to raise their game in recent weeks, even when they were fighting for a possible European place. 

With a win rate of 70%, Real Madrid have still consistently found ways to triumph in La Liga. Their individual quality normally gets them over the line. However, their latest games have been short on entertainment, with all of the last five finishing with two or fewer goals. 

Given that, backing Real Madrid to win and Under 4.5 goals looks to offer value at odds of 19/20. 

Bet 2 - Kylian Mbappé to score first @ 15/8 

Having been loudly jeered when he made his last appearance at the Bernabéu, Mbappé will be one of the most motivated players on the pitch. He'll want to silence his critics, and has the added incentive of going for Spain's prestigious Pichichi Trophy. 

The Frenchman is two goals clear of Mallorca's Vedat Muriqi in that race. However, the Kosovo international is quite capable of bagging a brace as the Balearic Islanders host bottom club Real Oviedo on the final weekend. 

Mbappé got 90 minutes under his belt at Sevilla last Sunday following a recent injury, and he should be sharper one week on. I'm backing him to add to his 24 league goals by scoring first in this game at 15/8.