Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Prediction: Don’t expect many goals

Kick-off is set for 8PM for Monday night's La Liga action as Girona will want to arrest a three-game slide that has seen them perilously close to the drop zone. They face a mid-table Rayo Vallecano team this evening who still have an outside chance of European football. 

Our Spanish Football expert previews the action and gives us his top two Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Predictions plus all the team news, predicted line-ups and stats...

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The Estadio de Vallecas will be in party mood on Monday night as Rayo Vallecano celebrate reaching their first-ever European final. Iñigo Pérez is likely to rotate his team for this clash against a relegation-threatened Girona side. 

Rayo's rise to the point where they are just 90 minutes from their first piece of major silverware has been one of the most extraordinary stories in Spanish football in recent years. Widely regarded as one of the worst run clubs in La Liga, followers of Los Franjirrojos have been calling for club president Raúl Martín Presa to leave for more than a decade. 

The club's failure to do basic things such as install an online ticketing system is one of many gripes fans have, while the team was forced to play home matches on neutral territory earlier this term due to the poor state of the pitch. 

Despite that, and with only limited investment in the team, Rayo have frequently managed to defy all expectations. The club does deserve credit for placing their faith in Andoni Iraola in 2020, and in Iñigo Pérez in 2024. The latter has built on the solid foundations laid by his former boss, with an eighth-place finish enough for European qualification last term. 

This season, Pérez has done a good job of juggling his team's domestic and European commitments. While they have flirted with trouble in La Liga, Rayo all but clinched safety with a 2-0 victory at Getafe last weekend, as forgotten man Randy Nteka came off the bench to net a screamer, adding to Sergio Camello's earlier strike. 

Pérez rested players in that game, but reaped the rewards as the Spanish club impressively saw off Strasbourg 1-0 in France on Thursday, to seal a 2-0 aggregate win in their Conference League semi-final. They will take on Crystal Palace in the final in Leipzig at the end of May. 

Girona have been another small-club success story in La Liga over the past few years. However, their rise has been aided by the considerable financial muscle and resources of the City Football Group. 

The Catalans were playing Champions League football as recently as last season, but their level has dropped considerably. They only finished a point clear of the relegation zone last term, with veteran striker Cristhian Stuani scoring some crucial goals as they limped over the line. 

This time around, it has been an up-and-down campaign for Míchel's side. They started in abysmal fashion, with 15 goals conceded in their opening five games, which only yielded one point. However, helped by some solid late summer business, the 50-year-old managed to turn things around, and Girona were eyeing up a late European push when they beat Villarreal at the beginning of April. 

They drew 1-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu in their next match, but three straight defeats since then have seen the Blanquivermells slide back towards trouble. A 1-0 home loss against fellow strugglers Mallorca last time out was particularly damaging. 

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over on betfred.com

Team News: 

With another league game to come this Thursday, Rayo Vallecano are expected to make many changes from the side that triumphed in Strasbourg. The likes of Camello, Nobel Mendy and Gerard Gumbau should come in. 

Attacking midfielder Isi Palazón is suspended, while Luiz Felipe misses out with a hamstring injury. The hosts are also sweating over the fitness of winger Ilias Akhomach. 

Girona will be missing Bryan Gil to suspension. They also have a number of injuries, which have contributed to their struggles in recent weeks. Top scorer Vladyslav Vanat is sidelined, while they'll also be without Marc-André ter Stegen, Portu and Donny van de Beek. 

With few options up top, City loanee Claudio Echeverri may continue to be used as a false nine, although 39-year-old Stuani is an alternative option. 

Match Odds: 

Rayo Vallecano are the 11/8 favourites to win this game. You can back Girona at 15/8, while the Draw is priced at 12/5. 

If you fancy the home team's chances of building on their European success, Rayo are priced at 3/1 to win to nil for the fourth match in a row. They can also be backed to score in both halves at 11/5. 

Alternatively, you can back Girona to win either half at 10/11. The visitors are also priced at 6/4 to score over 1.5 goals, while you can back Both teams to score at 4/6. 

Camello should lead the line for the hosts. He hadn't scored all season in La Liga until the 1-0 win over Espanyol last month, but the 25-year-old has now netted in three straight league games. The forward is priced at 6/1 to score first, and 21/10 to score anytime. 

From a visiting perspective, you can back dangerman Azzedine Ounahi to get on the scoresheet at 15/8, while winger Viktor Tsygankov is priced at 5/2 to score anytime. 

*You can place a bet on this match and check out all of our Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 

Neither side is blessed with great options up front. Despite his current hot streak, Camello has only once netted more than three goals in a Spanish top flight season, while Rayo's top scorer Jorge de Frutos is one of those who may be rested. 

Girona have looked a bit toothless in attack since losing Vanat to a season-ending injury. They've only managed to score five goals in their previous six games, with three of those encounters finishing with 1-0 scorelines. 

With two of Girona's final three fixtures at home, Míchel may view a point as a decent outcome here. That could lead to a relatively tight encounter, and I'm backing Under 2.5 goals at 1/1. 

Bet 2 - Rayo Vallecano or Draw & Rayo Vallecano to have over 13.5 shots @ 5/4 

There has been clear evidence in recent weeks that even a rotated Rayo lineup is one that should not be written off. They made changes for their trip to Barcelona three days after a Conference League match in March and created the better chances in a narrow 1-0 defeat. 

Los Franjirrojos also surprisingly saw off European hopefuls Getafe on the road in between their two legs against Strasbourg. Having suffered just two home league defeats all season, they'll fancy their chances against an out-of-form Girona side. 

Pérez's men are averaging 16.5 attempts per home game in the Spanish top flight. Only Barcelona and Real Madrid have had more. Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Rayo Vallecano or Draw and Rayo Vallecano to have over 13.5 shots at 5/4. 

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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