Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe Prediction: Back Palazón to keep up Home Shots Hot Streak

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The first Spanish football action of 2026 comes from Madrid, with Rayo Vallecano playing host to local rivals Getafe on Friday night. 

Rayo endured a disappointing end to the old year, with the goals completely drying up. They've only scored once in La Liga since October, with a seven-game winless run concluding in a 4-0 defeat at Elche a fortnight ago. 

They are now down in 15th place and are going through their toughest period since Iñigo Pérez took charge in 2024. The 37-year-old guided the Vallecas club to European qualification last term, but even then, converting chances was often a problem. 

Alemão was signed in a €4.5m deal in the summer as the potential solution to their long-standing striker issues. However, the Brazilian has only scored once so far in 11 appearances in the Spanish top flight. Rayo have continued to be dependent on their wingers to provide the goal threat, with Álvaro García and Jorge de Frutos the only players who have scored more than once in the league. 

Pérez has tended to prioritise domestic over European commitments, but the volume of games may also have had an impact. Nobody else in La Liga has played as many competitive matches as Rayo so far this season, but they have now got a lengthy break from the Conference League after securing a top-eight finish in the first phase. 

Getafe also ended 2025 in poor form, losing all of their final four matches in all competitions. Their last two performances were particularly worrying. Los Azulones slumped to a 3-1 Copa del Rey defeat at second-tier Burgos, before losing 4-0 to Real Betis in the league. 

Scoring goals has also been a major problem for Pepe Bordalás' team. Along with Rayo, they are the joint-second lowest scorers in La Liga with just 13 goals in 17 matches. Getafe also have the lowest xG tally of 12.1, which is even worse than a very unconvincing Real Oviedo side. 

Their only real source of creativity is Luis Milla. The midfielder has assisted six of their goals so far this term. The only player in the Spanish top flight to have set up more goals is Barcelona wonderkid Lamine Yamal. 

While they had a bad day in Seville a fortnight ago, Getafe can at least usually rely on their backline to hold firm. No team in La Liga has allowed fewer xG this season, which has enabled them to compete in virtually every match. 

In a congested middle section of the table, it's difficult to predict exactly what direction these two teams will go in over the next few months. Both are only a couple of wins away from being in a position to challenge for Europe. However, on current form, both look more likely to get dragged into a potential relegation scrap, with only five points currently separating Getafe in 11th from Girona in 18th. 

Team News: 

Alemão is currently sidelined with an injury, while Rayo's attacking threat could be further depleted by a fitness doubt over De Frutos, their top scorer with four goals in La Liga. 

Full-back Iván Balliu is also rated doubtful, while fellow defender Abdul Mumin is yet to recover from an ACL injury sustained last March. The game may also come too soon for Randy Nteka to play any part after Angola were narrowly eliminated from the Africa Cup of Nations this week. Midfield regular Pathé Ciss is still on AFCON duty with Senegal. 

As for Getafe, they've been dealt a major blow with their top scorer Borja Mayoral ruled out for around three months with a knee injury. With Hull City loanee Abu Kamara also a fitness doubt, Bordalás isn't blessed with many remaining striker options, and he'll be hungry for fresh recruits in January. 

The visitors are also missing their young full-back Davinchi, while Abdel Abqar is an additional doubt.