Levante vs Osasuna Prediction: Slow first-half expected

Kick-off is set for 8PM for Friday night's La Liga action as Levante continue to claw themselves out of a hole in an attempt to stay in La Liga. They face mid-table Osasuna in what is a must-win game for them in all reality.

Our Spanish Football expert previews the action and gives us his top two Levante vs Osasuna Predictions plus all the team news, predicted line-ups and stats...

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With nine teams involved in La Liga's relegation scrap, just about every game right now has an impact on the fight to avoid the drop. This one is certainly no exception, with 19th-placed Levante in desperate need of three points as they chase down the sides above them. 

The Valencian outfit looked down and out, but a return of 13 points from their previous five home games has given them a fighting chance. They're now sitting on 33 points with four matches to play. It may well take more than 40 to survive, though. That suggests they might need three wins from their remaining fixtures, with Celta Vigo, Mallorca and Real Betis their other opponents. 

A 5-1 defeat in a local derby at Villarreal was a setback last time out. Individual errors proved costly, with centre-back Matías Moreno's poor backpass setting up Georges Mikautadze for the opening goal. In-form Carlos Espí did briefly level the game for the Granotes, but both their morale and goal difference took a big hit, as their opponents fired in four second-half goals. 

Luís Castro would have had a big job this week in terms of trying to pick his players up and get them going again for the decisive final fortnight. The Portuguese coach has done a really good job, with the strugglers averaging 1.28 points per game since he took over at the turn of the year. 

They'd be pushing for Europe had they managed that across the first half of the season too. However, Levante's failure to register a home league win until January still looks like costing them their top-flight status. 

With 42 points, Osasuna will feel as though they now have enough to start planning for another campaign at this level. They won't be lacking motivation at the Estadi Ciutat de València, though. Los Rojillos would climb into seventh place and serious European contention with a victory. 

Sealing a place on the continental stage would cap a promising first season under the guidance of Alessio Lisci. The 40-year-old spent a decade in various coaching roles at Levante, before finally being rewarded with the top job in 2021. While he spent less than eight months in charge of this Friday's opponents, the Italian has gone on to forge a reputation as one of the brightest young bosses in the Spanish game. 

Having led unfancied Mirandés to the brink of promotion from the Segunda División last term, Lisci took his time to put his stamp on this Osasuna side. His reputation for nurturing young talent has continued with the rapid rise of winger Víctor Muñoz, but he has otherwise largely had an experienced squad to work with. 

With a relatively settled lineup, Osasuna have been tough to beat at home, but they've only managed to win twice on the road. They've not won away against any of the nine teams that are yet to hit 40 points, which is perhaps a positive omen for their opponents. 

They gave a decent account of themselves at home to Barcelona last time out. It took the leaders 81 minutes to break the deadlock, with late goals from Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres sealing a 2-1 victory for Hansi Flick's team. 

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over on betfred.com

Team News: 

Levante have been hit by two really untimely injuries heading into four games that will decide their fate. Regulars Iván Romero and Carlos Álvarez will both miss this clash, while Kervin Arriaga is suspended. 

That will force Castro into at least three changes to the side that started against Villarreal. The home boss also has fitness doubts over Adrián de la Fuente and Unai Elgezabal. 

There are few selection issues for Osasuna, but Muñoz will miss out again, after he sustained an injury in the buildup to the Barcelona clash. The visitors will once again be looking to Ante Budimir to provide their main goal threat. The Croatian has scored 16 goals in 33 league appearances. 

Match Odds: 

There's little to choose between the sides in the Match Result market, with Levante priced at 8/5, while Osasuna are available at 7/4. The Draw is on offer at 9/4. 

If you fancy the hosts to build on their strong run of results in front of their own fans, you can back Levante to win to nil at 16/5. They are also given a 6/4 chance of scoring over 1.5 goals. 

Osasuna are given a 9/10 chance of winning either half, while you can back them to score in both halves at 3/1. Meanwhile, Both teams to score is available at 4/5. 

There are two obvious candidates for goals in this match. From a home perspective, Espí is the dangerman, and he's priced at 5/4 to score or assist. He's also on offer at 15/2 to net another headed goal. 

At the other end, Budimir is one of the most dangerous strikers in La Liga in the air. The Osasuna frontman is given a 10/3 chance of scoring first, while he's priced at 23/20 to score anytime. 

*You can place a bet on this match and check out all of our Levante vs Osasuna Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - First half - Under 0.5 goals @ 2/1 

The stakes are high here, but aside from Espí and Budimir, it's difficult to see where the goals are going to come from. The injuries to Álvarez and Romero mean Levante may well start this match without another player who has scored more than once in La Liga all season. That leaves a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of their 20-year-old striker. 

It's a similar story for Osasuna, given Muñoz is sidelined, and with their second-highest scorer Raúl García only likely to feature off the bench. 

I'm backing there to be under 0.5 goals in the first half at 2/1. That bet has landed in 41% of Levante's home league games this term, while 53% of Osasuna's road fixtures have been goalless at the break. 

Bet 2 - Levante to have over 13.5 shots & Carlos Espí 1+ shots on target @ 13/10 

Levante have had plenty of shots in their recent home fixtures. They've taken 20 or more attempts in three of their previous five outings in Valencia, with Getafe, Real Oviedo and Alavés all needing to sustain spells of heavy pressure. 

They are clearly playing with belief all of a sudden when they step out on home soil. However, doubts remain over whether they'll be clinical enough to win this match. So much will depend on Espí, who has scored eight goals in his last nine appearances. 

Given the striker's impressive form, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Levante to have over 13.5 shots and Espí to have one or more shots on target at 13/10. 

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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