Levante vs Alaves Prediction: Visitors to upset the odds

A key game at the bottom of La Liga takes place on Friday night (20:00) as 19th-placed Levante host Alaves (14th) on Matchday 26.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon shares his Levante vs Alaves predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Levante are just one place off the bottom on 18 points, in a league where 40 wasn’t even enough to secure safety last season. They made a big call in December as their popular promotion-winning coach Julián Calero was sacked, with ex-Nantes boss Luís Castro taking over.

The 45-year-old made a dream start. He oversaw a 3-0 win at Sevilla in his first match and his club’s first of 2026. There was also a long-awaited first home victory of the season, which came via a 3-2 margin against fellow strugglers Elche later in January.

There was a sense that something might have been building after that win, but it has all gone sour surprisingly quickly for Castro. Levante’s four matches in February so far have all ended in defeat, with two of those coming in home derbies against Valencia and Villarreal. The first of those was a really damaging one, with their city rivals also in the thick of the relegation battle.

The Granotes head into this game on the back of a 3-0 defeat to Barcelona at Camp Nou. They could have taken the lead inside 20 seconds in that game, with Carlos Álvarez missing a glorious one-on-one opportunity. Midfielder Jon Ander Olasagasti also spurned a similar chance in the first half, but worryingly for the 19th-placed side, even their forwards are currently showing very little conviction in front of goal.

The outlook is slightly more positive at Alavés, who look to have just enough firepower to stay in La Liga. Chacho Coudet has settled on a 4-4-2 approach, with Lucas Boyé and Toni Martínez forming an effective strike duo.

Coudet played in a more expansive way in his previous role in Spain at Celta Vigo, but he has resorted to a much more direct style in his current position. Martínez is frequently the target for long balls and crosses, with the 28-year-old averaging 4.5 aerial challenges won per game, which is the highest figure in the division.

It’s just one defeat in five league outings for the Basque side. Back-to-back victories over Real Betis and Espanyol in late January gave them some breathing space. However, that was followed by a damaging home defeat against fellow strugglers Getafe.

They head into this clash following successive draws against bottom-half rivals. The Babazorros were in action as recently as Monday, when a brace from Boyé saw them clinch a late 2-2 draw against Girona at Mendizorroza

Levante vs Alaves Odds

There is little to choose between the teams in the Match Result market, with Levante priced at 6/4 to win, while you can back Alavés at 9/5. The Draw is on offer at 21/10.

A point is of little use to the home team right now, and if you fancy Levante to throw caution to the wind, backing Both teams to score may appeal at 1/1. The hosts are also on offer at 7/4 to score over 1.5 goals, while they’re priced at 11/5 to be leading at the break.

Alaves are available at 19/20 to win either half, while they’re priced at 21/10 to win the second half. The Basques are given a 2/1 chance of scoring over 1.5 goals across the 90 minutes.

Boyé and Etta Eyong are the two favourites in the Goalscorer markets. The Levante frontman is priced at 5/1 to score first, and 9/5 to score anytime. Meanwhile, Boyé is available at 9/2 to break the deadlock, and 7/4 to get on the scoresheet at some stage.

Martínez and Romero are also each on offer at 21/10 to score anytime. Alternatively, you can back the game to produce under 0.5 goals at odds of 13/2.

Team News

Levante have four definite absentees heading into this game. Midfielder Kervin Arriaga is suspended, while they’ll be missing Unai Elgezabal, Roger Brugué and Pablo Martínez due to injuries.

Top scorer Karl Etta Eyong hasn’t netted a league goal since October. That may see Iván Romero favoured up top, although the 24-year-old’s form has also dipped since a bright start to the campaign.

As for Alavés, the only player they are expected to be missing is defender Ville Koski. The Finnish international is yet to feature for the club due to injury, following a January move from Croatian outfit Istra 1961.

Given the relatively quick turnaround, Coudet may consider some light changes from the clash with Girona. Facundo Garcés and Jon Pacheco are pushing for starting roles in defence, but the visitors will almost certainly go with their usual front two.

Draw No Bet - Alaves @ 10/11

Of these two sides, Alavés currently look much more convincing. While it’s not always pretty, they’ve got a clear gameplan and two competent strikers. They’ve also only conceded 1.28 goals per 90 minutes in La Liga this term, which is the 10th-best record.

By contrast, Levante have the worst defensive record in the division, as well as by far the worst home record, with only seven points collected in front of their own fans.

Their attacking players are in poor form, with some significant injuries adding to their woes.

Overall, I like the look of Alavés in this game, and they are priced at 10/11 in the Draw No Bet market.

Bet Builder - Alaves to score over 0.5 goals & Toni Martinez 1+ shots on target @ 20/21

Levante have only kept one clean sheet so far this term at the Estadio Ciutat de València. They’ve hosted current bottom-six opponents on three occasions, conceding eight goals across their matches against Rayo Vallecano, Valencia and Elche.

They really have to take risks here and target the win, which should help to serve up a relatively open game. That ought to mean there are opportunities for Alavés and their two frontmen.

Boyé may have done the damage last time out, but Martínez is also in great form, with five goals in his last nine appearances in all competitions. The ex-Porto man is averaging 2.2 shots per game in La Liga.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Alavés to score over 0.5 goals and Martínez to have 1+ shots on target at 20/21.

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