Getafe vs Real Madrid Prediction: Los Blancos look good for another three points

Real Madrid make the short trip to the Coliseum for a derby against Getafe on Sunday (20:00 BST, Premier Sports 1). It’s the final game for Los Blancos in La Liga before next weekend’s Clásico.

Our La Liga Betting expert Mark Sochon has penned our preview for this clash - you can check his Getafe vs Real Madrid predictions below...

Match Preview:

With 21 points from a maximum of 24, Xabi Alonso's side are the leaders heading into matchday nine, and they'll want as much of a cushion as possible as they prepare to take on Barcelona.

Los Blancos have been largely impressive so far this term. Kylian Mbappé has excelled, only failing to score on one occasion for club and country. Vinícius Jr. has also chipped in with five goals and four assists in eight appearances in the Spanish top flight. The Brazilian is averaging a goal contribution every 66 minutes.

Alonso's ability to get those two firing represents a strong start to his bid to solve an attacking puzzle that Carlo Ancelotti struggled to get to grips with last term. The last piece in the jigsaw may be the successful reintegration of Jude Bellingham into the team.

It has been a frustrating season so far for the Englishman. Recovery from shoulder surgery ensured he didn't feature until the second half of September, but one month on, he has still only started one match. That was the humiliating 5-2 derby defeat to Atlético, with Bellingham benched in the following games and not called up by Thomas Tuchel to the England squad for the October internationals.

A trip to Getafe sees Real Madrid take on a team they have beaten in each of the last seven meetings. Even last season, when they were struggling to keep clean sheets, Los Blancos won both meetings to nil.

Football Odds

There has been little in recent weeks to suggest Getafe are going to be any more threatening on Sunday. José Bordalás' side have only picked up two points and scored three goals in their last four matches. Their form has dipped significantly since a bright start, which saw them win three of their opening four fixtures.

They started with back-to-back away wins, largely thanks to their ability to strike on the break with Adrián Liso and Christantus Uche up top. However, Uche has since been sold to Crystal Palace, while Liso has missed their last three La Liga games due to his involvement at the U20 World Cup in Chile.

Luis Milla brings a touch of quality in midfield, but overall, this remains a functional team that prioritises keeping it tight at the back. Getafe have only created 5.5 xG, the lowest figure in the Spanish top flight, although only two teams have allowed more xG.

It's therefore not too difficult to anticipate what kind of approach we'll see from the hosts this weekend. They'll likely look to nick a goal on the break, whilst also trying to offer a threat from set-piece situations against a Real Madrid defence that struggled in the air in their recent derby at the Estadio Metropolitano.

Team News: 

Getafe have injury doubts over midfielder Yvan Neyou and defender Abdel Abqar heading into this game. Key centre-back Dakonam Djené had been struggling with an issue over the break, but is expected to be fit. Liso may return up front, although he may be a bit rusty, having not started any of Spain's five games at the U20 World Cup in Chile.

As for Real Madrid, the expectation is that Bellingham will make just his second start of the season on Sunday. That's made more likely by an injury to Dani Ceballos, and the probable need to use Fede Valverde at right-back, given both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal are still out.

The visitors have injury problems in central defence too, with Antonio Rüdiger and Dean Huijsen both sidelined, while left-back Ferland Mendy is rated doubtful. Mbappé was forced to pull out of the France squad over the international break with an ankle injury, but is expected to be available.

Match Odds: 

Real Madrid are the 4/9 favourites to win this game, with Getafe on offer at 7/1. You can back the Draw at 16/5.

For larger returns on the visitors, you can back Real Madrid to win to nil at 23/20. That bet has landed in six of the last seven meetings between the clubs. Meanwhile, Getafe are priced at 5/6 to score under 0.5 goals, having only netted once against their neighbours since their last victory over them, which came via a 1-0 margin in January 2022.

If you're expecting more from the hosts on this occasion, you can back Getafe or Draw in the Double Chance market at 13/8. Los Azulones are also on offer at 13/5 to win either half.

Assuming he starts following his recent injury scare, Mbappé should again be the main goal threat for Madrid. He has scored 17 times in 13 appearances for club and country this term. The Frenchman is priced at 9/4 to score first, and 8/11 to score anytime here. He's also on offer at 11/8 to have three or more shots on target.

You can also back Vinícius Jr. to score anytime at 7/5, while Bellingham is priced at 12/5 in the same market. From a home perspective, Liso is on offer at 4/1 to get on the scoresheet, having scored three goals in five appearances since moving to Getafe in the summer.

You can bet on this match via our Getafe vs Real Madrid Odds page on the main betfred.com website, with all the latest prices and full betting markets.

Real Madrid to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 1/1

While their collapse against Atleti was concerning, Real Madrid have won all of their other nine competitive fixtures this season. They’ve had too much quality for all of their other league opponents, and against a Getafe side that is struggling to create clear chances, a repeat looks likely here.

The hosts are expected to set up with a back five, which will make it difficult for Los Blancos to find space and carve out shooting opportunities. However, the visitors should ultimately break them down, and I’m backing Real Madrid to win and Under 3.5 goals at 1/1, a winning bet in each of the last seven meetings between the clubs.

Mauro Arambarri to have 1+ shots on target @ 13/8

Last season, Getafe’s chief goal threat often came from midfielder Mauro Arambarri. The Uruguayan was their unlikely top scorer with 10 goals, twice as many as any of the South Madrid club’s forwards. He also had more shots than anyone else in their squad, averaging 1.6 per game. That included three attempts, one of which hit the target, in Getafe's 1-0 loss to Real Madrid at the Coliseum in April.

So far this term, little has changed in terms of the 30-year-old’s role. He’s averaging 1.5 shots per game and has the potential to test Thibaut Courtois in open play or from set-piece situations in this encounter. I’m backing Mauro Arambarri to have one or more shots on target at 13/8.

Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

• Points Staked: 57
• Points Returned: 52.08
• P/L: -4.92

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...