Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction: Two ways to Bet on a Barca Win

Barcelona have won three on the spin in the league and Alaves have dropped their past two games. Recent form certainly suggests that the hosts will have a good chance here and our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon certainly agrees.
He previews Saturday's match (15,15, LaLiga TV) and picks out two bets to place as part of his Barcelona vs Alaves Predictions here on Betfred Insights...
Barcelona vs Alaves Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publication
*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com
Barcelona play their second match at the newly renovated Camp Nou on Saturday, with Alavés the visitors. Hansi Flick will be hoping for a response from his team following a difficult night in the Champions League.
Their trip to Stamford Bridge started poorly with Chelsea creating more chances in the opening exchanges and taking the lead through a Jules Koundé own goal. Ferran Torres had missed a sitter for Barça prior to that, but the visiting team's night went from bad to worse after Ronald Araújo's needless red card just before the break. The Premier League side went on to wrap up a convincing 3-0 victory.
The Spanish champions are still in contention for a top-eight finish in that competition, but they now have a busy eight-day period when they can focus on their domestic commitments.
With Real Madrid slipping up in their last two league games, Barça have been able to cut the deficit at the top to just one point thanks to victories over both Celta Vigo and Athletic Club. They put in one of their most complete performances of the campaign last weekend, with Lamine Yamal providing two brilliant assists for Ferran in a 4-0 victory.
Flick would have been keen for his side to settle quickly back into life at Camp Nou, and they've rarely been troubled in their home fixtures so far this term. Barça have already hosted matches in three different stadiums, but have won six out of six in La Liga in front of their own fans.
While this is also a favourable fixture on paper, Barcelona found it tough going against Alavés when they visited last season. The Basque side held firm until a Robert Lewandowski strike in the 61st minute, which would prove the game's only goal.
That was early on in Chacho Coudet's reign, but the ex-Celta Vigo boss is now much more settled into this role. He doesn't have as much attacking talent to work with as was the case during his previous stint in La Liga, but summer signing Lucas Boyé has added a physical presence up top. He has worked well in tandem with fellow forward Toni Martínez at times.
This is still not a free-scoring Alavés side by any means, though. They've only scored 11 goals in 13 matches so far this season in La Liga. Their last two matches have ended in 1-0 defeats against Girona and Celta.
Overall, Coudet does deserve real credit for getting them organised across the pitch, and making this side one of the most difficult teams in the Spanish top flight to break open. Only two clubs can better their total of just 12 goals conceded this term.
Given where their strengths lie, it's not too hard to guess how Alavés might approach this encounter. It's likely to be a similar setup to the one we saw when the clubs last clashed in February. They only had three shots in that match, but did a much better job than most of stifling Barça's attacking stars.
Team News:
Barcelona have a huge game against Atlético Madrid just three days after this one. That will certainly have some impact on the team that Flick picks on Saturday. The likes of Marcus Rashford, Gerard Martín, Dani Olmo and Marc Casado could rotate in, after only making the bench against Chelsea.
Pedri is also nearing fitness again, and could be on the bench. Gavi and Marc-André ter Stegen remain sidelined due to injuries, while Araújo and Fermín López have also been ruled out of this game.
As for Alavés, they have a clean bill of health as they target a famous upset at Camp Nou. Their only absentee is Facundo Garces, who has been suspended by FIFA after the Malaysia national team used doctored documentation to register the Argentina-born player, and several others of claimed Malaysian heritage.
Barcelona vs Alaves Predicted Lineups
- Barcelona: J. Garcia, Kounde, E. Garcia, Cubarsi, Balde, De Jong, Casado, Yamal, Olmo, Rashford, Torres
- Alaves: Sivera, Otto, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Yusi, Vicente, Blanco, Suarez, Alena, Martinez, Boye
Barcelona are the 2/11 favourites to extend their 100% home record in La Liga with another win. You can back the Draw at 6/1, while Alavés are priced at 12/1 to record a surprise victory.
The hosts are also available at 4/6 to score over 2.5 goals in the game. You can back them to win both halves at 6/5, while Flick's side are available at 4/7 to score in both halves.
Alternatively, Alavés are available with a +2.00 Handicap at 11/8. The Basques are priced at 4/5 to score over 0.5 goals in the game, while they are on offer at 4/1 to win either half.
With his full complement of forwards now available, it's tough to know where Flick will go in terms of selection here, with Ferran, Rashford, Lewandowski and Raphinha likely competing for only two places. Yamal should start on the right flank, and he's priced at 4/1 to score first, and 1/1 to score anytime.
Lewandowski is the 5/2 favourite to score first. Meanwhile, you can back Boyé to score anytime at 3/1 for Alavés.
Barcelona vs Alaves Stats
- Only 17% of Alaves' away matches this season have resulted in BTTS.
- No La Liga side have enjoyed more Shots on Target than Barcelona (98) so far this term.
Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction 1 - Barcelona to win to nil @ 21/20
With such a strong defensive record, it's only natural that Alavés set up very conservatively when they play the big clubs. Since their 1-0 defeat in Barcelona in February, they've also lost 1-0 to Real Madrid. They've played Atlético twice since these clubs last met too, with those matches ending 0-0 and 1-1.
Those results suggest they can hold their own for long periods here, but we're unlikely to see much from Alavés in attack. Barça's defence has performed a bit better in their last three league games, with under 1.0 xG allowed in each of them. Given that, I'm backing Barcelona to win to nil at 21/20 here.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction 2 - Under 3.5 goals @ 10/11
Unlike their opponents, Alavés do not have an upcoming midweek match in the league. That means there's little reason for Coudet to hold key players back in this fixture, with their fringe players likely to get opportunities when they travel to minnows Portugalete in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday.
Alavés' recent results against the top sides certainly suggest this match is unlikely to turn into a goal fest. They're an organised outfit, and we may not see Barcelona hit top gear at any stage in this fixture, with a much bigger game to come in three days.
Flick may also use this one to give the likes of Raphinha and potentially Pedri minutes as they bid to build up their match fitness. If they can secure a lead, we may see the hosts just look to keep the ball and manage the game, without going all out for more goals. That suggests, backing Under 3.5 goals could be worth a punt.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:
- Points Staked: 97
- Points Returned: 96.36
- P/L: -0.64
You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...






















