La Liga Betting Tips: Our Best Bets for Matchday 20

Matchday 20 in La Liga is missing a few teams due to the Spanish Super Cup but our Madrid-based expert is still here with his Best Bet column for the games this weekend...

It’s a reduced fixture list this weekend in La Liga with the Spanish Super Cup taking place in the Middle East. There’s still one massive league game going on though with Champions League hopefuls Athletic Club and Real Sociedad meeting in one of the most eagerly anticipated Basque derbies in recent years.

Elsewhere, Girona have the opportunity to return to the top of the table while there are a number of important games at the bottom, none more so than Sevilla’s Friday night showdown with Alaves.

Real Betis vs Granada (Saturday 20:00)

A quick glance at the records of these two teams this season would suggest this should be a stroll in the park for Real Betis. Manuel Pellegrini’s team are unbeaten at home in La Liga while Granada have picked up just one away point, but there’s reason to think this might actually end up being a really competitive game.

Granada rushed through a couple of early January signings in time for their crunch clash with fellow strugglers Cadiz last week. South American new boys Augusto Batalla and Bruno Mendez were thrown straight into the starting eleven and that seemed to be something of a catalyst for a dominant display as Granada created a host of chances, scoring twice to record just a second win of the season.

Their primary issue all campaign has been their leaky defence but they do have firepower in their ranks. Lucas Boye is not prolific but does a good job of leading the line while Myrto Uzuni and particularly Bryan Zaragoza were outstanding last week. The electric Zaragoza will be a Bayern Munich player next term and he feels like the real ace in Granada’s pack as they target a great escape.

Punters should be aware that Betis have significant injury problems at full back which adds to the sense that the likes of Bryan Zaragoza can cause problems on the flanks in this game. The hosts are also short on central defenders with Luiz Felipe sold in September, Marc Bartra injured and Chadi Riad off on AFCON duty with Morocco.

If they can play like they did last week, there should be at least a goal in this for Granada, but doubts clearly still remain about how their defence will shape up against a stronger forward-line this time around.

Granada kept their first clean sheet of the season last time out, but I don’t see them repeating the trick here against an Isco-inspired Betis so I’m backing Both Teams to Score at 4/5.

Almeria vs Girona (Sunday 13:00)

With the “big three” clubs away in Saudi Arabia, this is a chance for Girona to not only go three points clear of Real Madrid at the top, but open up a ten point advantage on Barcelona and 13 point lead on Atletico Madrid who they beat in dramatic fashion last week with a 4-3 win.

Michel’s team continue to rise to just about every challenge that is put in front of them and having now beaten both Barca and Atleti, scoring four goals in both games, it’s hard to see them as anything but serious title contenders.

The way they are playing, they should have little trouble opening up the worst defence in La Liga on Sunday with Almeria the only remaining winless team in Europe’s five biggest leagues.

While they’re perhaps not quite as bad as their tally of just five points suggests, they are already a team that looks to have accepted its fate. Despite pushing Barcelona close in their final game of 2023, they were really poor against Osasuna last week and their defence could simply be overpowered here by Girona’s dynamic forward-line which should be at full strength with Savinho and Viktor Tsygankov operating either side of 11-goal striker Artem Dovbyk.

Girona’s main flaw is that their attacking style of play does allow opposing teams space and the opportunity to create chances. Despite topping the table, they’ve only the joint 10th best defensive record and they’ve conceded in 89% of their away games this season in La Liga.

They are also hampered here by the absences of centre-backs Eric Garcia and David Lopez which may mean a first start of the season for 32 year old Juanpe, a player who’s spent most of his career in the Segunda Division but suddenly finds himself thrust into the thick of a top flight title race.

The likes of Largie Ramazani, Sergio Arribas and Leo Baptistao ensure that Almeria do carry a goal threat and they’ve scored in all but one of their games against the current top six so far this term, losing the lot including a 5-2 defeat at Girona in current boss Gaizka Garitano’s first game.

I can see a similar kind of open game developing here, but the visitors should have too much quality and I’m backing Girona and Both Teams to Score at 9/5.

Cadiz vs Valencia (Sunday 15:15)

It’s 15 league games without a win for Cadiz heading into this match and the alarm bells are really starting to ring after a shocking display in their last outing, a 2-0 defeat to 2nd bottom Granada.

They had reeled off five draws on the bounce before that, but they rode their luck in a number of those games. The main issue is in the final third and right now they look comfortably the worst team in La Liga when it comes to their ability to create chances and score goals.

Losing forward Roger Marti to a long-term injury didn’t help, but they now have a real problem up front with former Valencia striker Maxi Gomez, their marquee summer signing in many respects, yet to score in 16 league outings.

Aside from the injured Roger Marti, only two Cadiz players have scored more than once this term. One is Chris Ramos who has done a decent job of leading the line in challenging circumstances while the other is winger Darwin Machis whose form has dipped in recent weeks meaning he may not even make the starting eleven here.

This is a real opportunity for the visitors who are playing some of their best football of the season. Hugo Guillamon’s fine late equaliser against Barcelona in December appears to have shaken them out of a bad run of form and it’s three straight wins in all competitions for Valencia heading into this game.

Their influential skipper Jose Gaya is fit again which makes a real difference at both ends of the pitch and they raced into a 3-0 lead against local rivals Villarreal in their last league game.

It’s hard to make any real case for Cadiz winning this match, but their tendency to nick points even when they don’t play well, suggests backing Valencia Draw No Bet could be the way to go at 4/5.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...