La Liga Betting Tips: Best Bets from Gameweek 18 this Midweek

 | December 18 | 

6 mins read

Gameweek 18 of La Liga is a special midweek edition due to something called Christmas.

As always, our La Liga expert Mark Sochon is here and has picked out his three best bets for this round of games.

Last week he went one for two with the Monday night game still to go as of the time of publication...

La Liga Betting Tips Gameweek 18:

  • Back Atletico Madrid to win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 10/11
  • Back Real Sociedad to win @ 5/6
  • Back under 1.5 Goals in Mallorca vs Osasuna @ 11/8

La Liga signs off for 2023 with a full midweek fixture list. Girona face a tough trip to Real Betis as they bid to end the year on top while the other title hopefuls are all strong favourites in seemingly favourable fixtures.

At the other end of the table, all eyes will be on the Andalusian derby between Granada and Sevilla with the visitors finally putting the winless Diego Alonso out of his misery by sacking him after Saturday’s heavy home defeat against Getafe.

Atletico Madrid vs Getafe (Tuesday 20:30)

This one’s a Madrid derby between two teams who experienced contrasting fortunes at the weekend. Atletico were deservedly beaten 2-0 in Bilbao as Diego Simeone’s side suffered their fourth away defeat of the season already. Getafe meanwhile impressively recorded their first road win of the campaign, triumphing 3-0 at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan against Sevilla.

Unquestionably, Sevilla’s widespread problems were a big factor in that scoreline but credit should go to Pepe Bordalas who returned for his second spell as Getafe boss earlier this year and is doing impressive work once more.

With a defensive reputation and a physical, at times game-delaying approach that his critics often describe as anti-football, Bordalas has frequently been compared to Diego Simeone. It’s perhaps no surprise then that meetings between the two rarely serve up many goals with all eight La Liga fixtures between Bordalas’ Getafe and Simeone’s Atleti, seeing two or fewer scored.

In fact, Getafe have never scored a league goal against Atletico Madrid with Bordalas at the helm, although this will be the first meeting since his return.

On current form, Getafe can’t be completely discounted here, but it’s hard to see Atleti being anywhere near as poor as they were at the weekend. It was a surprise to see both Rodrigo De Paul and Jose Maria Gimenez on the bench at San Mames as they are two of their most important players and both will surely rotate back into the starting eleven on Tuesday.

Regular slip-ups away from home are potentially going to cost Atletico Madrid a real shot at winning this title but they’ve been unstoppable at home this season, winning 11 out of 11 in all competitions at the Civitas Metropolitano.

Given the low-scoring history of this fixture and the kind of match it’s likely to develop into, I’m backing Atletico Madrid and Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11.

Cadiz vs Real Sociedad (Thursday 18:00)

Real Sociedad have been one of the best things about Spanish football in 2023. With a squad that is mostly comprised of homegrown academy graduates, they’ve scaled new heights by first

qualifying for the Champions League and then securing smooth progress into the Last 16 as group winners following last week’s draw in Milan.

Perhaps the only concern for anyone backing them in this game, might be that fatigue could be setting in after a slightly below par showing in the home draw against Real Betis at the weekend. However not playing until Thursday should offer sufficient recovery time and La Real boss Imanol will be hoping his team can put one last shift in at the end of an excellent 2023.

Cadiz are one of the weakest teams in La Liga, but while they are winless since August, they have at least drawn their last four matches to keep their points tally ticking over. Those games were mostly against struggling sides though and they were certainly fortunate to get results in at least a couple of those matches, particularly in the recent trip to Vigo when they had just two attempts to their opponents’ 26 in a 1-1 draw.

The Andalusians have lost all of their five matches against current top six opposition so far this season. Just two of their 14 points have come against sides in the top half so while they’ve found a way to grind out results against the teams around them, they are generally coming unstuck when faced with teams of Real Sociedad’s calibre.

Another relegation battle almost certainly awaits Cadiz in 2024 which is no surprise given they are operating on one of the lowest budgets in La Liga and it’s something they expect and plan for. The visitors are missing Brais Mendez who is important in midfield, but they are close to full strength otherwise and I’m going for Real Sociedad to win at 5/6 here.

Mallorca vs Osasuna (Thursday 20:30)

Mallorca and Osasuna both had excellent 2022/23 seasons, securing top half finishes, but it has been tougher going for both this term and this game is highly unlikely to develop into a classic.

You’ll struggle to find a more defensive side in Europe right now than Mallorca. With star striker Vedat Muriqi injured, they are missing the man who scored more than 40% of their goals last term and their boss Javier Aguirre has doubled down on what was already quite a cautious approach.

Mallorca’s formation could perhaps best be described as a 3-5-1-1 with Cyle Larin, who has scored just once following his summer arrival, operating as the lone striker. It’s not pretty but it has been delivering better results with the Balearic side now unbeaten in five games in all competitions to edge clear of the relegation zone.

Their last three league outings have produced a grand total of just one goal. That was Larin’s solitary strike which sunk Sevilla the weekend before last, but they couldn’t find a breakthrough in the goalless draw at rock bottom Almeria last time out.

There is nothing about the visit of Osasuna which suggests the floodgates are suddenly going to open in terms of goalmouth action. The visitors are also struggling in the final third with Croatian striker Ante Budimir their only reliable source of goals.

It’s hard to see him getting much change out of Mallorca’s back three though, but Osasuna will take some belief from a much needed win which came courtesy of a 95th minute Raul Garcia header against Rayo Vallecano on a Friday in a game that seemed destined to finish goalless.

They’ll be keen to avoid defeat here to round off an unbeaten December and everything points to this being a tight, evenly contested game with few clear chances. I’m backing Under 1.5 Goals at 11/8, a bet which has landed in six of Mallorca’s last eight games.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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