Kazakhstan vs Slovenia Prediction: Sesko to make it three in a row against the Hawks

Thursday night was one to forget for Kazakhstan and Slovenia as they both slumped to heavy defeats in the Uefa Nations League. Kazakhstan were thumped 4-0 by Austria in Linz, while Slovenia suffered a 3-0 loss to Norway in Oslo.

The pair meet each other at the Almaty Central Stadium on Sunday (14:00) hoping to get their campaigns back on track, and ahead of the Group B3 clash in Almaty, you can check out my Kazakhstan vs Slovenia prediction below.

Team News

Kazakhstan head coach Stanislav Cherchesov could make several changes to the side that started Thursday's defeat in Linz. Makim Samorodov and Ramazan Orazov were introduced at the start of the second half in Austria for Bauyrzhan Islamkhan and Aybol Abiken so the duo must be in contention to begin Sunday's game, although the score was only 1-0 when they were introduced.

Artur Shushenachev and Abat Aymbetov are other potential inclusions in the starting XI, although the latter is lacking match fitness and may be utilised from the bench instead.

Football Odds

Slovenia skipper Jan Oblak will be desperate to keep a clean sheet on Sunday following Thursday night's disaster in Oslo. The Atletico Madrid shot-stopper could see changes made in front of him, although the defence is likely to stay the same despite Erling Haaland & co. putting three past them earlier in the week.

Among the potential additions to the side are Jan Kurtic, Zan Vipotnik and Josip Ilicic, all of whom were second-half substitutes against Norway.

Strikers Benjamin Sesko and Andraz Sporar were both taken off in that defeat, but the pair are expected to start alongside each other again in Almaty.

Kazakhstan vs Slovenia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Kazakhstan vs Slovenia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Kazakhstan are 18/5 to win for the first time since March 14, when they beat Turkmenistan 2-0 in a friendly. Those odds give the Hawks an implied win probability of 21.7%, while Slovenia are 8/11, or a 57.9% chance, to get another three points on the board against Kazakhstan, who they beat 3-0 in Ljubljana last month. The draw, meanwhile, is available at 11/4.

Both teams to score is priced at 10/11 and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Seski (6/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Sporar and Vipotnik (both 15/8), with Aymbetov (3/1) considered Kazakhstan's most likely scorer.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Slovenia & Under 3.5 Goals @ 5/4

It's been a great couple of years to be a supporter of the Slovenian national team as, before Thursday's defeat, they had lost just two games in regulation time since June 5, 2022. Both of those defeats - away to Finland (0-2) and Denmark (1-2) - were inconsequential, too, as they still finished second in their Euro 2024 qualifying group (level on points with winners Denmark) and progressed to the summer tournament.

After three wins and two draws in five friendlies to warm up for Euro 2024, Slovenia certainly didn't disgrace themselves in Germany, drawing 1-1 with Denmark and Serbia before holding England to a goalless draw to book their spot in the last 16, where they were knockout out on penalties by Portugal.

Slovenia made a good start to their Nations League campaign last month, too, drawing 1-1 with Austria at the Stadion Stozice before beating Kazakhstan 3-0 at the same venue three days later.

Things took a turn for the worse on Thursday, however, as Norway outclassed Slovenia 3-0, helped by a brace from Manchester City star Haaland. The question now is whether Slovenia can recover from a first defeat in 13 matches to win again versus Kazakhstan.

I'm confident that there will be an instant response from Matjaz Kek's side, who won't have to deal with the likes of Haaland, Alexander Sorloth, or Antonio Nusa on Sunday.

Kazakhstan are a much inferior team, evidenced by their seven-game winless streak that has seen them shut out four times. They've not scored in any of their three Nations League contests so far and didn't cause Slovenia many problems in Ljubljana last month as they fell to a 3-0 defeat.

Given this tie will take place in Kazakhstan, I don't think the task is quite as straightforward this time around for Slovenia, who head to Almaty with the knowledge that the hosts haven't conceded more than twice in a home game since March 2019, when they were thrashed 4-0 by Russia.

Slovenia scored twice in a 2-1 victory in Astana in March 2023 and repeated that scoreline in the reverse fixture in Euro 2024 qualifying last November, while there were exactly three goals scored again in the last meeting between the sides last month as Kek's charges triumphed 3-0.

For the fourth time, I'm backing there to be under 3.5 total goals and Slovenia to emerge victorious.

First Goalscorer - Benjamin Sesko (SVN) @ 4/1

On a personal note, Sesko endured a disappointing Euros as he failed to score in four appearances, notably missing a one-on-one with Portugal goalkeeper Diogo Costa in extra-time of Slovenia's last-16 exit.

However, the 21-year-old has returned in rude health following a short break in the summer, scoring six times for club side RB Leipzig and four times for his national team.

It was his hat-trick that inspired Slovenia to a 3-0 victory over Kazakhstan last month, three days after netting the opener in a 1-1 draw with Austria, meaning he has struck Slovenia's last four goals.

Sesko has been a fast starter this term, firing the first goal of the game on five occasions; in fact, across the six matches he has scored in for club and country in 2024/25, the only one he hasn't struck first in was Leipzig's 4-1 DFB Pokal victory over RW Essen on August 17. Since then, he has found the first goal in contests with Austria, Kazakhstan, Atletico Madrid, Augsburg, and Juventus.

Furthermore, the former Red Bull Salzburg striker was first on target in Slovenia's 2-1 win against Kazakhstan last November, which means he has opened the scoring in the last two head-to-heads between the nations - at 4/1, I'm more than happy to back Sesko making it a hat-trick of opening goals versus Kazakhstan.

Offers

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