Juventus vs Inter Milan Prediction: Back a low-scoring, high-drama Derby d’Italia

One of the greatest events on the European football calendar takes place on Saturday when Juventus host Inter Milan at the Allianz Stadium in Serie A’s 185th Derby d’Italia (18:00 local, 17:00 BST, live on Betfred.com and DAZN).

Juve have recorded two wins from two so far, while Inter need to bounce back from a defeat to Udinese last time out. And my Juventus vs Inter Milan predictions, which follow below with full team news and Betfred’s match odds, will point to a cagey affair lying ahead.

Team News

Juve boss Igor Tudor could hand a debut to Lois Openda, who was signed on deadline day from RB Leipzig on an initial loan with a purchase obligation.

The Belgian is among a glut of options up front, with Jonathan David having shown good form this season so far and Dusan Vlahovic twice netting from the bench in the opening two fixtures.

Elsewhere, the Bianconeri are still without Andrea Cambiaso after his sending-off against Parma on matchday one. Fabio Miretti remains out with an injury to his semitendinosus muscle, as Juve announced in a release ahead of the season. That’s a thigh injury to you and I.

Cristian Chivu has an extra option at the back following the loan signing of Manuel Akanji from Manchester City.

Ange-Yoan Bonny continues to push for a start having been impactful as a substitute in the 5-0 win over Torino on the opening weekend. But with Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez having recorded three goals and two assists between them in the first two games, Chivu is unlikely to make wholesale changes.

Juventus vs Inter Milan Odds

There’s little to separate these two in the markets, with Juve the slight favourites at 13/8 with Betfred for a 38.1% implied chance.

Inter are 9/5, implying a 35.7% probability of an away win. It’s 21/10 for the draw, which has come up in seven of the last 14 Derby d’Italia fixtures in all competitions.

Jonathan David is the most heavily-backed player to score first at 9/2 (and 7/4 to net anytime), with Vlahovic 5/1 to opening the scoring (15/8 anytime).

Draw & Under 2.5 Total Goals @ 13/5

Juve might have the edge so far in the standings, but the most complete performance from either team so far this season came when Inter hammered Torino 5-0 first up.

And this fixture doesn’t really have a recent history for being high-scoring, other than that obvious stand-out last autumn when the sides shared eight goals in an epic contest.

I don’t see that happening again, with Juve having found the target with only 11 of 38 total shots so far this season and Inter showing against Udinese two weeks ago that they can find it hard to break down an organised defence.

And with two head coaches who are relatively wet behind the ears, I think they’re both going to want to be cautious to begin with in this huge encounter.

So a low-scoring draw at 13/5 looks excellent value with its implied 27.8% probability seeming to underestimate how tight these fixtures normally are.

Over 10.5 Total Corners @ 13/8

One thing I do think we’ll see plenty of is pressure.

Inter really forced the issue in attempting to peg back Udinese on matchday two, earning 13 corners.

And in total across the four games featuring these two sides this term there have been 45 flag-kicks at an average of 11.25.

Three of those four matches have had more than 10.5, with only Juve’s 1-0 win at Genoa falling short of the threshold in this market.

So with two sides who will be looking to pull each other this way and that, and a pair of defences who are happy to concede set-pieces and back their defensive drills rather than give up space, there ought to be 11 or more corners involved at the Allianz on Saturday.