Juventus vs Roma Prediction: No festive greetings between arch-enemies

Juventus vs Roma rounds-out the Serie A action this weekend on Saturday night, live on TNT Sports.

Our Serie A writer believes it will be more entertaining than what the odds currently suggest...

Juventus have three points more in the table compared to last season and have lost only one game.

Yet the Bianconeri are in an uncomfortable position.

Their objective is to be within touching distance of Inter when the Champions League resumes, otherwise all their improvements would have been useless.

This Saturday evening Juve will play knowing the result of the league leaders who face Genoa away on Friday.

For the past six weeks Juve have always played before Simone Inzaghi’s men and it will be interesting to see how they’ll react when the pressure is on them.

Considering Massimiliano Allegri is playing with almost an identical XI to last year, it must be recognised the Tuscan manager has done so far an exceptional job. Juve don’t play better than a year ago, but are much stronger mentally.

Yet last Saturday’s 2-1 win over Frosinone raised a fair amount of criticism for the way the Bianconeri approached the second half.

This is the last game of 2023 in Serie A, but there’ll be no festive greetings between two of Italy’s fiercest rivals.

Perhaps the competition is now even more intense as two former Inter Milan men, manager Josè Mourinho and Romelu Lukaku, who’s been courted by Juve for all summer, feature for the Giallorossi. It will be passionate, edgy and controversial. But will it also be spectacular?

Team News:

Manuel Locatelli and Federico Chiesa are both doubts for this match. It is unlikely the midfielder will recover in time for Saturday, whereas there’s optimism in the Juventus camp that Chiesa (five goals this season) will be able to start the match.

Andrea Cambiaso was booked against Frosinone and is suspended; Alex Sandro, De Sciglio and Kean will all miss the game due to muscular injuries. Dusan Vlahovic should start up front, with US international Timothy Weah playing as a right wing-back. Federico Gatti will also return to the starting eleven.

Josè Mourinho is going to make two changes from the team that beat Napoli: Leonardo Spinazzola will replace Nicola Zalewski at left wing-back and Stephan El Shaarawy will play up front instead of Andrea Belotti. Smalling, Aouar, Dybala and Abraham are still out due to injuries.

Match Odds

Juventus are favourite to win the match at 21/20. Max Allegri’s team home record is excellent, in fact they are the only Serie A side unbeaten at home this season, but have only scored five times in their last four domestic games.

That’s perhaps why the draw is priced at 21/10. Juve have drawn 1-1 at home against two sides currently in the top four, Bologna and Inter.

The odds for a win for Roma are even higher, at 3/1: the Giallorossi have won only three of their last 12 matches against Juventus. The last success in Turin came at the end of the Covid-19 lockdown season, in August 2020 (3-1).

Normally top of the table clashes in Serie A are a low scoring affair, no surprises the odds for Under 2.5 goals (4/9) are much lower than the ones for Over 2.5 (13/8).

Both teams to score @ 6/5

Juventus are not a high scoring team, but the opposite would be actually surprising, as last season after 17 games they had totalled the same amount of goals, 26.

They still have the second-best defence in the league, but have only kept one clean sheet in the last six games, against Napoli when the current champions missed two big chances in the first half.

Between the two sides, it’s Roma who are behind in the table (minus three points) compared to 2022/2023.

However, the Giallorossi, thanks also to the impact of Romelu Lukaku (eight Serie A goals so far) are much more prolific than a year ago: they’ve got the third-best attack in Serie A with 30 goal, nine more than the last campaign.

The likely absence of Paulo Dybala, who’ll probably return in mid-January, deprives Josè Mourinho's side of that unpredictability that only the former Juventus player (82 goals in 210 games over seven seasons in Turin) can offer

On the other hand, the Giallorossi are one of the most resilient sides in Italy’s top flight: the two goals that helped them beat Napoli last weekend came once again in the last 15 minutes of the match.

Mou’s experience with the substitutions has often paid off, in fact in the calendar year Roma have scored 26 late goals, nine of them in the last 11 minutes.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8

Normally Roma’s games against top oppositions in Italy are low scoring affairs and out of the last four games between these two sides only one saw more than 2.5 goals scored (Juve 4-3 win in Rome).

But given that a draw doesn’t really suit anybody, the match might open up in the second 45 minutes.

The beginning of the match will probably be cagey, but Juventus, galvanised by their excellent home record, will start strongly.

This is the tenth time, since 1995, that the Bianconeri collect at least 40 points after matchday 17 and in every of those occasions they’ve won the Scudetto at the end of the season.

Roma defence has only kept one clean sheet (in the derby) in 11 away matches.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...