Junior vs Botafogo Prediction: Bore draw in Barranquilla?

 | Monday 27th May 2024, 13:00pm

Monday 27th May 2024, 13:00pm

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Top spot in Copa Libertadores Group D is up for grabs when Junior and Botafogo clash in Barranquilla, Colombia on Tuesday (KO, 23:00). The sides are level on nine points and cannot be caught by either Universidad de Deportes or LDU Quito, while the hosts are currently in first as a result of a superior goal difference.

Read below for my Junior vs Botafogo prediction, where you can also find all the latest team news and match odds ahead of this contest at the Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez.

Junior vs Botafogo Betting Tips

  • Draw @ 2/1
  • Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

Junior started their 2024 Copa Libertadores group campaign with a stunning 3-1 win over Botafogo in Rio de Janeiro, racing into a 3-0 lead inside 41 minutes. They followed that up with a hat-trick of 1-1 draws, a couple with Universitario de Deportes sandwiched either side of one with LDU Quito, before continuing their unbeaten run with a 1-0 win against the Ecuadorians last time out.

However, that win in Quito was followed by a 3-2 defeat at home in the league, and they were also held to a goalless draw by Pereira on May 23.

Botafogo's hopes of qualification were teetering on the brink after back-to-back defeats to Junior and LDU Quito (0-1), but the Brazilians responded superbly to win their next three and draw level on points with Junior at the top, though they must win on Tuesday to overtake the Colombians.

The suspension of the Brazilian top-flight means they haven't played a league game since May 12, but they have played once since beating Universitario 1-0 in their last Copa Libertadores match on May 16, beating Vitoria 2-1 in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil tie on Wednesday to advance 3-1 on aggregate.

Team News

Jose Enamorado was the hero for Junior against LDU Quito as he struck the only goal of the game in the 37th minute, but the 25-year-old wasn't quite so lucky in his side's next match as he was sent off in the dying stages of their 3-2 defeat to Pereira.

After serving a suspension in the league, he should be fit and raring to go again in the Copa Libertadores on Tuesday, and will likely join ex-Sevilla and AC Milan striker Carlos Bacca, who is enjoying a brilliant season so far.

The 37-year-old has scored three times in the Copa Libertadores group stage, including a brace against Botafogo in his side's opening game, and will be one of Junior's biggest threats again on Tuesday.

Former Wolves full-back Marcal and ex-Porto forward Tiquinho Soares are among those injured for the visitors, who will look to the likes of Junior Santos, Luis Henrique and Jefferson Savarino for inspiration in attack.

Junior vs Botafogo Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Junior vs Botafogo page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Junior are regarded as slight favourites to triumph on Tuesday, with odds of 6/4 giving them an implied win probability of 40%, with the Brazilians at 7/4 (36.4%).

The draw is available at 2/1, and both teams to score at 8/11.

Draw @ 2/1

Remarkably, despite sitting top of Group D, Junior are yet to win at home. The Colombians have drawn each of their two games in Barranquilla, and have picked up fewer points at home than both Universitario (four) and LDU Quito (three).

Botafogo, meanwhile, lost their first away match 1-0 in Ecuador before winning 1-0 last time out in Peru.

A point is all that the hosts require to top the group, so the onus is on the Brazilians to find the magic that will see them overtake Junior.

Across all competitions, Junior have drawn three of their last six at home, and I think they have enough in them to frustrate Botafogo again.

Draw in Junior vs Botafogo at 2-1

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

There were four goals scored in April's reverse fixture in Rio de Janeiro, but subsequent stats don't paint a promising picture for Tuesday's match, with just four goals scored in group matches at the Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez - Junior drawing 1-1 twice so far.

Botafogo's away games have been even more brutal, with both seeing just a single goal scored.

There have been under 2.5 goals in seven of Junior's last nine games, and in four of Botafogo's last seven, and I think we could be in for another low-scoring contest in Barranquilla.

Under 2.5 total goals in Junior vs Botafogo at 8-11

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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